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Performance of Asset Classes over 15 years


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  • 2 months later...

I was surprised by the upwards movement in the Baltic Dry index.

 

The falling commodity prices should indicate either a reduced demand or an oversupply of commodities. The falls in the index earlier this year indicated reduced global demand rather than oversupply - all this despite the lower oil costs which are a large factor in the costs of running these ships. If we had over supply, the ships would still be moving the same amount of stuff but the fact is they are not. When the index recently started to rise again despite commodities prices still falling (indicating further falls in demand), something did not add up.

 

This article pins the recent increase on the Chinese and their now massive demand for imported corn. This goes some way to explain the recent movements but I do not have the full picture yet. If the movement is solely based on this, the rise is not sustainable;

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellingenheld/2015/07/23/the-baltic-dry-enigma/

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