oil

[Cointreau]

Is bitcoin in terminal decline?

[whitesands1]

42 minutes ago, Cointreau said:

Is bitcoin in terminal decline?

I don't really understand Bitcoin, but to me it looks like something the Emperor should buy his clothes with.

[goldbones]

15 hours ago, Cointreau said:

Is bitcoin in terminal decline?

I'm not certain it's worth anything.

Before you blow up though i'll hasten to add i don't mean the technology behind it, i certainly think the technology has value but not it's output.

Or to attempt to use an analogy: Morse code technology was worth something 100 yrs ago but i'd have been confused if people spent money on the dots and dashes.

[Bumble]

As Goldbones says, it is worth distinguishing between the blockchain technology and the currency. The blockchain could be used for all kinds of useful applications: basically anything that would benefit from being operated in a distributed fashion instead of using a centralised server. This and this are links to a couple of articles that discuss some of the possibilities.

As to the currency, the interesting thing about Bitcoin is that it is a fiat currency with no central bank, or any other issuing bank, to 'guarantee' its value. As such, two of the traditional properties of money, that of being a medium of exchange, and that of being a store of value, are apt to come apart. A lot of people are happy to use Bitcoin as a medium of exchange because it is excellent for that purpose: it can be used internationally with extremely low transaction costs, its transactions cannot be revoked, and its use can be anonymous. But as a store of value, it is worth only what other people think it is worth, and there is nothing to stop that going to zero if there is a loss of confidence in it.

Is it worth owning a little Bitcoin for emergencies? Probably. Is it worth speculating on? Only for the brave, though it is probably true to say that in a serious financial meltdown leading to high inflation, Bitcoin might well serve as a safe haven, especially as it is not subject to capital controls.

[Pipers]

On 15/01/2016 at 18:14, Cointreau said:

Just closed another oil short. When it rises again I'll put another short on.

I'm short copper as well.

@Cointreau who do you use?  

[Pipers]

Just in case any of you guys missed this the Japanese PM has asked for talks with Russia!  Possible play here on Russias new oil market selling oil and gas in rubles. The US would not be happy with this extra discounted offer that would surely be offered to Japan by Russia just to annoy the USA. 

 

[goldbones]

On 1/18/2016 at 13:16, Bumble said:

As Goldbones says, it is worth distinguishing between the blockchain technology and the currency. The blockchain could be used for all kinds of useful applications: basically anything that would benefit from being operated in a distributed fashion instead of using a centralised server. This and this are links to a couple of articles that discuss some of the possibilities.

As to the currency, the interesting thing about Bitcoin is that it is a fiat currency with no central bank, or any other issuing bank, to 'guarantee' its value. As such, two of the traditional properties of money, that of being a medium of exchange, and that of being a store of value, are apt to come apart. A lot of people are happy to use Bitcoin as a medium of exchange because it is excellent for that purpose: it can be used internationally with extremely low transaction costs, its transactions cannot be revoked, and its use can be anonymous. But as a store of value, it is worth only what other people think it is worth, and there is nothing to stop that going to zero if there is a loss of confidence in it.

Is it worth owning a little Bitcoin for emergencies? Probably. Is it worth speculating on? Only for the brave, though it is probably true to say that in a serious financial meltdown leading to high inflation, Bitcoin might well serve as a safe haven, especially as it is not subject to capital controls.

Well the store of value only lasts as long as the technology stays relevant i.e over time computers tend to get faster and faster and more advanced eventually a basic tablet computer will be able to break bitcoin as fast as a normal computer today can crack a 6 digit combination. Since the technology never goes in a step a--->b but gradually over time then as faster computers come about new types of cryptocurrencies  will be developed, they'll be made long before they are needed and that means bitcoin will become obsolete. Something that becomes obsolete has no true store of value.

[Bumble]

I don't think Bitcoin can be "broken" by faster computers: in fact there are mechanisms built in that automatically adjust the difficulty of the cryptographic calculations so as to keep the computation time roughly constant. But it is certainly true to say that other cryptocurrencies might come along and take its place. It is not uncommon in the computer world for the first big solution to be pushed aside by later arrivals (think Facebook, or MS Excel, for example).

[goldbones]

54 minutes ago, Bumble said:

I don't think Bitcoin can be "broken" by faster computers: in fact there are mechanisms built in that automatically adjust the difficulty of the cryptographic calculations so as to keep the computation time roughly constant. But it is certainly true to say that other cryptocurrencies might come along and take its place. It is not uncommon in the computer world for the first big solution to be pushed aside by later arrivals (think Facebook, or MS Excel, for example).

Anything can be cracked i believe the current time interval to break bitcoin with a normal average desktop PC is somewhere around 128 billion years.

With a quantum computer that is fully functional it could bring that time down to 48 hours.

Cryptography gets more advanced but what can't be cracked at one time (the enigma machine for example was "impossible" for a human no matter how good they was at maths) becomes effortless at a later time, it always seems impossible to the people at that time.

[Cointreau]

20 hours ago, Pipers said:

@Cointreau who do you use?  

Sorry Pipers. Missed this.

I use IG Index.

[Bumble]

North Dakota sour crude oil is now negative. Yes, they will pay you to take it away. Just be aware it cannot be put in a pipeline because it is corrosive, and it is expensive to refine.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Sold-for-050-per-Barrel-A-Negative-Price.html

[Spencer]

On 11 January 2016 at 06:45, garthy said:

It makes you wonder why we trust these people to look after our money.

On the oil front news, brent crude visits a new low of $32.81.

cheap petrol for everyone!

[goldbones]

2 hours ago, Spencer said:

cheap petrol for everyone!

Except no! because petrol is like 70% tax.

[HawkHybrid]

http://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/sheen-oil-slick-getting-darker

 

oil tankers stuck in ports?

 

HH

[KDave]

So I heard that Iran, having recently rejoined the market, is apparently looking to spend approximately 50 billion per year for the next several years to get its oil field infrastructure back up to scratch. Can anyone think of any research avenues for companies that are likely to be involved in the provision of equipment, services and training in the country? Any pointers will help, I am struggling to find much and need some fresh ideas. 

[BaldyBob]

PFC and AMFW are both in the oil service sector. A bit heavy in debt (who isn't in this sector at the moment?) but very well priced currently, not bad divs, and well placed for growth.

Note: I am not a financial advisor, so don't listen to me  ( I do hold both though)

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/255960/these-oil-companies-will-benefit-post-iran-deal

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-petrofac-iran-idUKKCN0VX1NT

[Pipers]

Well they hate the USA, went on a tour of Europe and they are trading with Russia, China and India.  Want to sell oil into Euros not USD. Iran have said they are going back to the table with OPEC and Russia and are interested in a $70 ceiling on oil when they have their share of the market is back.   

That might help you.   

 

[SoulUK]

28 minutes ago, Pipers said:

Well they hate the USA, went on a tour of Europe and they are trading with Russia, China and India.  Want to sell oil into Euros not USD.

 

Wasn't this one of the (joking, not joking) reasons, Sadam was got rid of

As he was doing this, moving away from the dollar as a global currency

[Bumble]

One view that I heard from an industry insider, is that the recent rise in oil price is an artificial goosing of the price to coincide with the financial year end, because so many smaller oil companies are technically insolvent at below $35, and they do not want to have to publish end of year balance sheets showing this, because it could trigger bankruptcies and defaults. If this is so, the price of oil may well fall back after April 5th.

[KDave]

Thanks for the info chaps have not had time to investigate this properly yet. I hold PFC so will take a look at AMFW cheers bob. I understand that PFC are well positioned to take advantage as they have had a presence in Iran in the past and are either reopening their offices or have already done so. I need to research. I should add that I am not confident on the price of oil having bottomed, but I am willing to gamble that the price would have to be a lot lower for Iran to stop its infrastructure renewal/expansion. 

[KDave]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-rise-next-two-years-044000271.html

Shorter term there is a lot of hype/rumour surrounding Doha opec meeting focus on Russia/Saudi agreement. I am not confident any agreement will last unless Iran follows suit. Short term uncertainty, longer term looking good for oil. DYOR though and all that good stuff! 

The linked video gave me a bit too much confirmation bias. It was like listening to my research notes being read out. Need to read a bearish zero hedge article now to balance out perspective. 

[KDave]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-12/oil-plunges-after-surprisingly-large-inventory-build

Found one 

[KDave]

No deal was reached at Doha - no freeze without Iran is the Saudi position. Will be interesting tomorrow! 

[Danny-boy]

No deal was reached at Doha - no freeze without Iran is the Saudi position. Will be interesting tomorrow! 

What's your thoughts on tomorrow KD?

[KDave]

Given the expectancy of even at least a superficial deal, to get the opposite - Saudis saying that there will be no deal until Iran joins the freeze, and that they will sell at every opportunity (their words) - I would expect anything oil related to sell off. The extent of the sell off will be dependant on what people had expected and what weight they put upon this meeting. Bear in mind that US oil inventories were reported as four times higher than expected last week, this outcome should accelerate, or the very least continue the sell off into last Fridays close. 

In other words, I do not expect this result to be already 'baked in' to the price, but I could be wrong, have been many times before!