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Oh and that means gold can drop to $10 BTW because it is a futures market, of course the exchange would blow up and stop trading before that point.

People are conditioned to think wrongly, so they don't understand why an ETF in gold would go to zero, well the exchange goes away and the contract no longer exists and thus your money no longer exists.

Hence why people say you need to own it physically.

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1 hour ago, goldbones said:

@garthy 

I'm not sure it's correct to say Derivatives have no use since they have been used for centuries  in one form or another, it's what they have evolved into that has become a joke CDO's Mortgage Backed Securities etc 

The basic derivative is the futures contract which is a good idea, farmers for instance require that to function properly, but yes the gambling on top of gambling has turned the whole thing into a monster.

Once you crunch the numbers the values are 99% hot air and only 1% reality. And if it blows up you're just left with the 1% bit.

These are some of the modern day derivatives I'm referring too.

Citigroup

Total Assets: $1,808,356,000,000 (more than 1.8 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $53,042,993,000,000 (more than 53 trillion dollars)

JPMorgan Chase

Total Assets: $2,417,121,000,000 (about 2.4 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $51,352,846,000,000 (more than 51 trillion dollars)

Goldman Sachs

Total Assets: $880,607,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $51,148,095,000,000 (more than 51 trillion dollars)

Bank Of America

Total Assets: $2,154,342,000,000 (a little bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $45,243,755,000,000 (more than 45 trillion dollars)

Morgan Stanley

Total Assets: $834,113,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $31,054,323,000,000 (more than 31 trillion dollars)

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Those will all be in trouble but Deutschebank is the one i'm keeping my eye on for now though with its $75 trillion and they have been getting into trouble lately and they will be the first to fail:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/deutsche-bank-capital-concerns-fade-as-barclays-upgrades-stock

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On 09/01/2016 at 15:46, shemyaza said:

Just an observation, Saudi Arabia may have almost exhausted all it's oil in the ground. It knows this and drawing all of it's external investments back in. The IPO of Aramco re-directs Oil revenue from the Government to shareholders, why do this with decades of oil supposedly existing. To Cash in before the end. Why push oil down? Make competitors cheap to acquire to create alternative revenue streams to maximise the transition of the economy before the value runs out.

@shemyaza  please forgive me I thought IPO meant 'Initial public offering'.  Can you explaiin for me please. 

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On 09/01/2016 at 00:33, Cointreau said:

BJF has just pointed out on his members site that they have not updated the TED Spread so far this year.

The spread was rising at year end, and if it keeps on rising then that is indicative of systemic risk in the financial system.

Could be they are hiding something.

Edit: The LIBOR rates are updated daily. No updates so far this year. Alarm bells ringing loudly.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

 

http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/libor/libor.aspx

@Cointreau do you sub to BJF 

 

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Yeah 20usds copper down to. 

Cannot see the bottom yet Iran may start pumping more to fund Yemans war against Saudi. RT news states Saudi planes bombing every day and keep bombing same targets, majority population backing rebels. 

 

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On 11/01/2016 at 10:40, Cointreau said:

If the Saudis are contemplating taking Saudi Aramco to the markets then this will be an IPO,

In which case, there will have to be an external audit of the oil reserves there.

 

Yeah watched the Keiser report today, a lot about Saudi Armco I don't think it will go ahead myself or they will sell a very small part off.  The Saudi population won't allow it, 

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24 minutes ago, StackemHigh said:

Jeez O. 

Just as I'm starting to pile into gold.  I'll have to get as much as I can while the going is good. 

Might be a good idea, WTI oil just fell below $30, i think the whole system might be caving in soon.

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1 hour ago, Danny-boy said:

Firmly below $30 now, I can't see it dropping much further now.

Then again, I said that at $50!!!

Its like trying to catch a falling knife, i got out of my long position at 32, you have to wait for the thing to actually go up and show support. If inventories show up higher than expected between now and april then $20 is a certainty, its not going to go up until the excess oil is showing signs of use, going long or short is a massive gamble.

Best stay out of all of it, i'm not even holding leveraged silver now, i hold un-leveraged etf, don't trust these markets they are all over the place.

I thought natural gas was back in a uptrend and technically it was, that lasted about what? 3 weeks give or take and back down might re-test $1.80, if it breaks that who the heck knows its not been there in more than 10 years. You've got nothing to go on all you have is nearly everything tanking.  

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With the world in recession and an increase in production of Saudi oil, reports of  Tanker ships Anchored outside ports, there will be a point when western Europe will be full and require no more oil the same will happen to America.  At this point I predict there will be a spike down to the bottom then production will be reduced by who I don't know probably the USA oil fields.  There is now a ceiling to oil of $70 IMO 

The other factor that is not talked about is lack of demand for oil, I am not talking about the middle class and their 4*4 cars I am talking about the expanding working class and under class in America and Europe who in real living terms are worse off and have less expendable income after housing costs and bills.  China is also pulling back after massive expansion it does not now need the amount of raw materials it use to.      

Things are not looking good for oil production is reduced or there is a war.

 

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To believe some sources, many of the American shale companies are already close to bankrupcy, it won't take much more oil weakness to take them out of the game.

While some better-financed companies will buy up the cheap assets, it'll still reduce output for a while and support a price rise. Long term, it depends on how the Saudis play it. Wait for the spike down and buy, should be quite a decent rally.

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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55 minutes ago, whitesands1 said:

We just bought heating oil for 27ppl, was over 70ppl in 2011.  Carnage on the stock markets, what is going on?

 

Some guy called Ross Clark mentioned in the Mail today that earlier in the week he ordered 900 litres of heating oil for £264.

I make that 29.3 ppl.

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We only made a small order of 600l and yet got the 1000l rate on a special offer.  The delivery window is until 29 January so I think that the oil companies are anticipating an even lower price and more orders in the same postcode.  

2p cheaper on the offer so if it falls 7% we will have peaked to soon!  High stakes!

It is freezing in Scotland so they will be busy too!

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