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43 minutes ago, garthy said:

I think they'd like to cut rates but then again that would be admitting defeat, stocks could plunge due to lack of confidence.

Dammed if they do dammed if they don't, they really are stuck between a rock and a hard place. 

The market wont care, the media will play it up and say "hey they're only human at least they corrected the mistake" or some other nonsense and the dollar will fall causing equities and commodities to rise. Basically if they reverse it there will be a lot of propaganda and excuses.

I'll concede that It'll only halt the pain temporarily though. Which they are known for (delaying the inevitable) and when that doesn't work more stimulus in the form of QE and it'll go on like that until the dollar tanks.

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@goldbones you must have some big b=llocks losing 33% in 9hours in one play how many plays have you got going? 

Being serious now OPEC have forecast oil to be at $70 by 2020, the problem is the price cannot go up until the Americans (oil) go bust or at least issue 0% on the junk bonds so the financial markets feel the pain. IMO this may take longer than the Saudis think.     

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@Pipers

My current positions are 1000 units of LSIL (£3.89) silver £3890

https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3ALSIL&ei=ZJWOVqPoO4fFUfSXq_gF

and

150 units of 3CRL https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3A3CRL&ei=1JWOVtH3B5a4U6TLvqAB  leveraged oil same as before which at close trades at about £12.70 each (£1905)

I did have 1000 units of  3NGL https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3A3NGL&ei=EpeOVvnUKseTUtfYuoAB i paid £1.45 this morning and closed it at £1.58

 

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In the long run oil will go up, its just the cost of storage, etf's do not always follow the price so be careful.  If it smells like a world recession tastes like a world recession acts like a world recession then it is one!!!  This is the commodities turn the herd will be turning up when commodities have risen 75% and all the players have made most of the money. I thought 40usd was the lowest so I got out, OPEC may start to split if the price goes below 30usd for long so in the short term I will get back in then., or get back in when the US oil fields close.  

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3 hours ago, Pipers said:

In the long run oil will go up, its just the cost of storage, etf's do not always follow the price so be careful.  If it smells like a world recession tastes like a world recession acts like a world recession then it is one!!!  This is the commodities turn the herd will be turning up when commodities have risen 75% and all the players have made most of the money. I thought 40usd was the lowest so I got out, OPEC may start to split if the price goes below 30usd for long so in the short term I will get back in then., or get back in when the US oil fields close.  

Well they are leveraged ETFs so they cant track the price the same, like right now it is £12.70 (at the close anyway) suppose oil goes down 15% to $28.9 the position would drop 45% to £6.98, but then even if oil goes back up 20% to $34.68 the position would only go up to £11.16 even though the oil price would actually be higher, that's why they are only for short term trades because in the long run they'll go down to near zero even if the price of what it is tracking is going up.

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1 hour ago, Bumble said:

As a matter of curiosity, are leveraged ETFs more cost effective than spread betting?

Probably the same, charges are built in and theres no stamp duty, you cant lose more than your stake so its not the sort of thing you'd get a margin call on.

Speaking of oil i closed another part of the position i just cant hack holding something that is like a falling knife so i hold a small position for prosperity sake in the event of a big turn around of 30% ill double the £1000 on it. I'll have to take the loss in the meantime, it sucks.

Silver i decided to add to and its levered back to 3x.

On the subject of markets if the Dow Jones finishes down in triple digits today all bets are off, by that i mean forget your trades and your gold coins it's time to stack up on tinned food and pot noodles.

This market by all indications this morning should have moved higher, looks dodgy .

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On 06/01/2016 at 22:09, shemyaza said:

 

BJF has just pointed out on his members site that they have not updated the TED Spread so far this year.

The spread was rising at year end, and if it keeps on rising then that is indicative of systemic risk in the financial system.

Could be they are hiding something.

Edit: The LIBOR rates are updated daily. No updates so far this year. Alarm bells ringing loudly.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

 

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8 hours ago, Cointreau said:

Ouch! less than $10 oil really?

Game over man, game over!

I might need to re-think all this.

If i'm reading this correctly then EVERYTHING is a sell and nothing is a buy, the only thing to hold is cash. But IMO cash is also a problem because it has counterparty risk still , and they'll no doubt try to paper over the cracks with more printed money and/or there will be bank bail ins and bank failures and even government bond failures.

I hope he is wrong, i mean i know i own gold and i'm pessimistic about any currency long term and so on but seriously for everyone's sake i hope we can point to this article in  a couple of years and laugh at how wrong it is. 

 

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Just an observation, Saudi Arabia may have almost exhausted all it's oil in the ground. It knows this and drawing all of it's external investments back in. The IPO of Aramco re-directs Oil revenue from the Government to shareholders, why do this with decades of oil supposedly existing. To Cash in before the end. Why push oil down? Make competitors cheap to acquire to create alternative revenue streams to maximise the transition of the economy before the value runs out.

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Interesting view Shemyaza. Personally, I think 2016 will be a major year for unrest around the world, and don't take too much notice of all the talk of $10 dollar oil. All it needs is for one or two suppliers to be disrupted.

Currently stacking 1/4 oz (22ct) and Sovs.

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1 hour ago, shemyaza said:

Just an observation, Saudi Arabia may have almost exhausted all it's oil in the ground. It knows this and drawing all of it's external investments back in. The IPO of Aramco re-directs Oil revenue from the Government to shareholders, why do this with decades of oil supposedly existing. To Cash in before the end. Why push oil down? Make competitors cheap to acquire to create alternative revenue streams to maximise the transition of the economy before the value runs out.

I'm curious what evidence you have of this.

I was reading about the Aramco IPO this morning and the article states that this "company" has proven oil reserves of 268 billion barrels, 11 times that of Exxonmobil, a $322 billion market cap company (all data according to the Economist).

It says the reason for the IPO is that Saudi Arabia has a $98 billion budget deficit and essentially needs cash to finance Government spending. In the short term, it's bankrupt and will do anything to raise cash. They are not exactly known for playing fair and by the rules, what's to stop them re-nationalising Aramco at some point on the cheap?

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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48 minutes ago, shemyaza said:

Heavy shorting can push it right down

I know we have fans on here, but this practice, and others such as trading futures, are probably why markets are so volatile and in such an unhealthy condition.

One for another thread  :) 

Currently stacking 1/4 oz (22ct) and Sovs.

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4 minutes ago, shemyaza said:

Sovereign, no evidence, just an observation.

If SA were indeed running out of oil, that would have major repercussions for the area, political instabilty in spades. Who knows how that would pan out.

If that were the case though, their tactic of flooding the market doesn't make sense.

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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7 hours ago, BaldyBob said:

I know we have fans on here, but this practice, and others such as trading futures, are probably why markets are so volatile and in such an unhealthy condition.

One for another thread  :) 

Its important people understand that valuations of everything is illusory.

I can prove it with a very short example: suppose i'm selling a car for £15k, can't find a buyer so what do i do? i mark down the price until i find a buyer to £10k is it correct to say the £5000 i knocked it down by went anywhere?

No that's daft, the money i marked it down by never existed. and thats the way the entire economy works, that's how markets are that's how the price of everything is, the price of everything: houses, gold, stocks, kit kat bars and mars bars whatever it is it only has a theoretical value.

Markets are in an unhealthy condition because they was propped up by low interest rates and QE which was papering over the cracks with artificial demand and distortions in the normal flow of credit and now they are correcting.

 

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Granted that prices are affected by market or perceived demand, but that item or commodity will always have an intrinsic value. It will always have a worth, and more importantly a use.

Spread betting on the other hand is just gambling on what those prices will be. Not 'Investment' as such and possibly more suited for the thread Matched betting, Bonus bagging, Arbing, gubbing & Bookie Bashing ?

 

Currently stacking 1/4 oz (22ct) and Sovs.

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23 hours ago, BaldyBob said:

I know we have fans on here, but this practice, and others such as trading futures, are probably why markets are so volatile and in such an unhealthy condition.

One for another thread  :) 

Have to agree there Bob, futures,spread betting and derivatives in general make no contribution to an economy, they just turn trading into parasitical high risk gambling and when you hear the numbers involved....some say one quadrillion dollars most of which is on banks balance sheets, it truly is mind boggling, and if it all turns sour well Gold help us!

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It is very unlikely that the oil in Saudi Arabia is running out, though just how much they have is something one can only speculate about. Saudi Aramco is notorious for its lack of transparency and as far as I know there have been no independent audits of its reserves, nor any financial audits that would meet western standards of accounting practice. Investing in Aramco would be buying a pig in a poke, as well as taking on the risk of a subsequent re-nationalisation by either the house of Saud themselves, or their successors in a revolution. Even if the Saudis honoured the foreign ownership by allowing dividend payments to be made, they could impose taxes at any rate they chose, which might make the investment almost worthless. The IPO is sheer desperation.

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@garthy 

I'm not sure it's correct to say Derivatives have no use since they have been used for centuries  in one form or another, it's what they have evolved into that has become a joke CDO's Mortgage Backed Securities etc 

The basic derivative is the futures contract which is a good idea, farmers for instance require that to function properly, but yes the gambling on top of gambling has turned the whole thing into a monster.

Once you crunch the numbers the values are 99% hot air and only 1% reality. And if it blows up you're just left with the 1% bit.

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