oil

[Pipers]

Oil Is up sharply today 

 

WTI      $57.74

Brent    $64.85 

 

The middle east worries the Yemen rebels have threatened to attack the Saudi oil fields if the Saudis do not stop bombing them.    

[oliversw5]

You follow oil also?

 

Do you own any oil stocks?

[Cointreau]

You follow oil also?

 

Do you own any oil stocks?

What about you Oliver. You own any?

I've had about half a dozen drills and they've all been dusters so I'm no longer keen on the oilies.

I had about £2k worth of Dana Petroleum who discovered a lot of oil in Ghana only after I had been forced to sell.

[oliversw5]

Hi Cointreau,

 

Yes I am a big fan of energy companies with the oil sector being at the top of my list of places to put money into, at one point I had put together a database covering around 120 oil companies on the London markets but my finger is not so much on the pulse at the moment. I have shares in a microcap american oiler which I was sitting on a huge loss on, I am not an advocate of throwing good money after bad but I think that this company will weather the storm and when consolidation of the market is done they will come back bigger and stronger. I had an original target of 1M shares, I have since upped that to 2.5M shares but it all depends on the price etc. I also own BP, which I know like the back of my hand. 

 

I have several companies on my radar atm but I now have to make a choice. I have about 2200 of free cashflow until I finish my studies. I can either add to either of the shares I own or put into precious metals, I think I'm going to opt for diversification and bring my silver stack up to 100 oz and my gold up to 2oz. 

 

How about you, do you still have vested interest in your oilers?

[Cointreau]

No more oilies for me. Tower Petroleum's duster in an Elephant prospect offshore Namibia was the final straw for me.

Everything is on AFC Energy now and I have high hopes there.

Eventually the oil economy will be replaced by a hydrogen economy.

[Pipers]

Hi Oliversw5, I do dabble in oil, but not holes in the ground.  I have a go on the ETF's long and short selling last year I lost quite big on the first drop but recovered and now back in profit because I was willing to short.  The recent rise was a cert with Saudi bombing Yemin but how long it will last I'm not sure.  

 

Reading your posts above you seem to know a lot more about oil than me. The aptly named Keithoil works in the oil industry if you need any info I asked him by it was all above my head.  

 

, I was reading that some oil companies were paying zero or only fractions of 1% on their bond coupons in the USA, it has not reached the news yet so lots of pension funds going short this year.

 

Just one more thing, the open interest on Silver is very high at the moment this can only mean silver will move either up or down but it will not stay at the same price. I have put a link to Gold money for you to read.

 

  http://www.goldmoney.com/research/updates/week-of-further-consolidation

[oliversw5]

Hey Cointreau,

Its a shame you lost out on some dusters, happens to everyone who speculates on oil companies on the aim sadly. I also had some hit and miss experiences but it all just gets added to the future playbook. I think hydrogen will have a good future but I simply don't agree that it will replace an oil economy, oil is literally in everything it just gets refined into different things for example fuel, energy, plastics etc. More importantly oil won't be running out for a very long time regardless of what the media will have you believe. I think its sensible to place your bets across the whole energy spectrum (and commodities). How I see it, you will have population growth and a squeeze on resources. 

 

Hi Pipers,

Ive never dabbled with ETF's personally, do you use a leveraged product? As for the fractions of 1% comment Im not sure entirely what you mean :s could you clarify?

 

Ill take a look at the link you sent. Looking to add another 80 RM lunar horses if I get silver so may do me well to do some more reading 

 

ATB 

 

oliversw5

[Pipers]

Here is a link to clarify what bonds are and terminology.

 

http://citywire.co.uk/money/bonds-the-basics-explained/a609855

 

A lot of the US  oil companies are not paying the full interest (coupon) on the bonds for last year and a few are only paying pennies on the pound.

[oliversw5]

Here is a link to clarify what bonds are and terminology.

 

http://citywire.co.uk/money/bonds-the-basics-explained/a609855

 

A lot of the US  oil companies are not paying the full interest (coupon) on the bonds for last year and a few are only paying pennies on the pound.

 

I'm going to put that down to me being a numpty and reading the sentence wrong. I didn't know that the yanks were paying cents on the Dollar, bit cheeky if you ask me!

[HawkHybrid]

for those interested in oil which currently represents energy

usage, then the us summer is the one to watch. historically

energy usage in the summer is higher than in the winter for

america. using energy to cool yourself down is inefficient as

the extra usage of energy creates more heat. for many

participants it's manageable for oil to drop during the lower

usage winter months, but if it stays down during the high

usage summer months it'll really start to hurt.

 

HH

[dopeysloth]

Oil prices had shown rise in the past month. But news has been arising about the oil prices to be stable, as OPEC is said to be keeping the oil prices low. Do you invest in oil? Any suggestions?

[oliversw5]

Oil prices had shown rise in the past month. But news has been arising about the oil prices to be stable, as OPEC is said to be keeping the oil prices low. Do you invest in oil? Any suggestions?

Hi dopeysloth, 

 

I had this discussion with a very well esteemed friend of mine who has interests in the mining sector (I asked his opinion on certain geology and we got onto the subject of the role of OPEC and the future oil price). Both of us came to the conclusion that OPEC wanted to wield power on multiple fronts, we concluded that OPEC (Saudi Arabia) wanted to wipe out marginal output (the Americans) but more importantly they wanted to stick it to the Russians who helped arm the Iranians of whom the Saudi's have a lot of tension with in that region of the world.

 

To go back to point one, Opec is the monopoly that is fast losing power to the Americans when it concerns the oil price. Due to increasing technology with cheaper costs the Americans were throwing up oil wells left right and centre thus increasing production. The boom time was so good that many oil companies leveraged themselves which gave the Saudi's an ace up the sleeve to bring the price crashing down....

 

This is my take on what might happen, My view on where the oil price will go is that most of the OPEC nations (OPEC account for about 40% of production) need a hell of a lot higher price to simple balance their books, The Americans have been and currently are being consolidated (indebted companies are going to the wall) or in other words supply goes down whilst demand should stay the same or go up which should push the price up also I think that OPEC will have a lot of infighting over the price and Saudi Arabia are not stupid enough to break OPEC up hence will allow the price to rise.

 

This is just my take on things

[dopeysloth]

The outlook for oil seems bearish and because of consistent fall in prices, people are having negative sentiments to invest in the same. But forecasts are suggesting that the supply demand imbalance will be bringing the oil prices up by 2016. Don't know how much of this turns out to be true, but hoping for oil market to boom soon.

[HawkHybrid]

forecasters will say anything to herd the masses in

an attempt to boost their individual profit/image.

there's a lot at stake with oil, I would proceed with

caution. rather than buy and then hope, I would

rather work out what has the better odds and then

consider if those odds are worth the risk of buying.

 

HH

[Cointreau]

I've made nearly £500 from shorting Brent crude the last couple of weeks.

I just closed out hoping the price will rise a bit whereupon I will go short again.

I BTFD  (bought the f'ing dip) on the Dow Jones yesterday but I got stopped out by 3 points and lost £100. I will stick to the oil now.

I find Wall Street difficult to call. Having said that BTFD has been a very profitable strategy the last couple of years.

[goldbones]

2 hours ago, Cointreau said:

I've made nearly £500 from shorting Brent crude the last couple of weeks.

I just closed out hoping the price will rise a bit whereupon I will go short again.

I BTFD  (bought the f'ing dip) on the Dow Jones yesterday but I got stopped out by 3 points and lost £100. I will stick to the oil now.

I find Wall Street difficult to call. Having said that BTFD has been a very profitable strategy the last couple of years.

I f**ked up on oil i put down £3000 on 3CRL yesterday:

https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3A3CRL&ei=11GNVuCqEcaLUIiepLAP

I was expecting a move up over tensions in middle east and possibly a shift from stocks to commodities, i made some back trading natural gas which seems to be in its own uptrend lately and a short on the ftse100.

 

[shemyaza]

Will quietly sit in the Dividends produced. RDSb currently pricing at 32p a share per quarter.

[Bumble]

Am I the only one who thinks that the Saudi plan to drive shale and tar sands producers in the USA out of business cannot succeed? Even if the companies go bust, the assets will continue to exist and will be bought by other companies with less debt. What I have in mind is this: company A is a shale producer with a high production cost per barrel, partly because they have a lot of debt and the interest rates are rising. If they are forced out of business because of low oil prices, their assets will be purchased at a distressed price by company B. Company B needs a lot less debt than A because of the low price at which they acquired the assets, and consequently have a lower production cost. So from the Saudis' point of view, the situation is worse: they are still having to compete with a shale producer, but now they are competing with one with lower costs.

The most the Saudis can hope for is for new exploration to be curtailed, which it is. But given the long lag between exploration and production, this won't have much effect for a long time. Even if they reversed course and cut production, I doubt whether OPEC has the power to move prices that it once had. The volume of production from the USA and Russia is now so high and worldwide demand so slack, even if OPEC could act with solidarity (which is doubtful) the outcome would be quite modest.

Commentators have claimed that at present prices, Saudi Arabia will burn through its sovereign wealth fund in about five years. It has already started issuing bonds. That gives it quite a small window within which to start another war.

[goldbones]

Oil is a falling knife now, and my long leveraged position is still on, so i managed to lose £1000 in less than 12 hours on a £3000 leveraged bet WOW, would have been better off at the casino.

These markets are finished, they're done and this morning i'd expect capitulation so you may very well see a 10% ftse 100 market crash, everything is going red its total chaos.

[garthy]

Brent crude now $32.81 

China has halted trading minutes after the open, this is looking bad.

On a positive note gold is up 

[goldbones]

19 minutes ago, garthy said:

Brent crude now $32.81 

China has halted trading minutes after the open, this is looking bad.

On a positive note gold is up 

I'll not be surprised if the fed comes out and cuts rates again...even though they only raised them a couple of weeks ago, that will cause the dollar to plummet but commodities and stocks will rise, i can't see them sitting back and doing nothing, even though the markets are going where they are supposed to we know from history that sudden interventions occur and you get major reversals.

That's about the only thing that will stop the slide down (however brief), because right now it's looking like 2008 all over again and far worse than what we saw in august.

 

[sovereignsteve]

Excellent

[sovereignsteve]

Specifically, oil I would never bet on, there are too many geopolitical risks out there to screw up a good trading plan.

[sovereignsteve]

ignore

[garthy]

4 hours ago, goldbones said:

I'll not be surprised if the fed comes out and cuts rates again...even though they only raised them a couple of weeks ago, that will cause the dollar to plummet but commodities and stocks will rise, i can't see them sitting back and doing nothing.

 

I think they'd like to cut rates but then again that would be admitting defeat, stocks could plunge due to lack of confidence.

Dammed if they do dammed if they don't, they really are stuck between a rock and a hard place.