Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Panicbuying]

Welcome back!

[HawkHybrid]

 

worth a watch. I'm thinking the gold price would go

in a stretched out bull market. if you believe that

volume is picking up then the price needs to stay

horizontal for a lengthy period of time. buyers tend

to re-evaluate the situation if the price rises or falls

too much. if these new high volume stronger hand

holders are going to be the ones to move price up

then it's going to take some time.

anyone else thinking gold to reach $1400 by the end

of 2019?

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

 

worth a watch, which way will it swing?

 

HH

[Cornishfarmer]

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/877933/Venezuela-bankrupt-India-oil-producer

thoughts, what will this do to gold next week

[sovereignsteve]

1 hour ago, Cornishfarmer said:

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/877933/Venezuela-bankrupt-India-oil-producer

thoughts, what will this do to gold next week

It might twitch a bit but the cabal will soon bring it under control.

60 billion is peanuts in the grand scheme of world debt anyway.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Cornishfarmer said:

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/877933/Venezuela-bankrupt-India-oil-producer

thoughts, what will this do to gold next week

If it's on the Express, it must be true!

[Bumble]

I don't tend to worry about the price of gold on the short term. But, for what it's worth, there was a price take down on Friday 10 November.

According to information on Kitco, 4 million ounces, or over 120 tonnes of gold, was sold on Comex in the space of 15 minutes. The 120 tonnes are of course just paper contracts and represent a high level of leverage. This is a lot, even by the standards of previous take downs. In the past, selling 10 tonnes could drive the price down $15 or more. Now it is taking 120 tonnes to drive the price down $10. On the whole I would say this is a bullish sign for gold. Cyclically, gold is often weak in Nov/Dec and picks up in Jan/Feb.

[HawkHybrid]

 

is volume favouring a near term move lower?

 

HH

Edited November 21, 2017 by HawkHybrid

[Cornishfarmer]

I don’t watch many you tube vids or read zerohenge but when HGM start dropping % above spot it normally means that gold is going to drop. So I’m holding off

note: I normally buy high sell low so don’t take only notice of what I say

[sixgun]

2 hours ago, Cornishfarmer said:

I don’t watch many you tube vids or read zerohedge but when HGM start dropping % above spot it normally means that gold is going to drop. So I’m holding off

note: I normally buy high sell low so don’t take only notice of what I say

Hatton Gardens Metals have no idea whether the price will fall. These ideas are superstition and will be right some of the time. The maker of the video above sounds like a fool who is making it up as he goes along. The physical markets are extremely strong at the moment, as strong as they have been for almost 10 years, except now there is less available gold. Physical gold and silver is bleeding out from every pore including the futures market as EFP [Exchange for Physical].

[SilverTanner]

4 hours ago, Cornishfarmer said:

I don’t watch many you tube vids or read zerohenge but when HGM start dropping % above spot it normally means that gold is going to drop. So I’m holding off

note: I normally buy high sell low so don’t take only notice of what I say

Could be they just have lots of stock at the moment and need to move it on 

[oliversw5]

3 minutes ago, SilverTanner said:

Could be they just have lots of stock at the moment and need to move it on 

They had like 180 1oz brits yesterday..

[HawkHybrid]

3 hours ago, sixgun said:

Hatton Gardens Metals have no idea whether the price will fall. These ideas are superstition and will be right some of the time. The maker of the video above sounds like a fool who is making it up as he goes along. The physical markets are extremely strong at the moment, as strong as they have been for almost 10 years, except now there is less available gold. Physical gold and silver is bleeding out from every pore including the futures market as EFP [Exchange for Physical].

 

my interpretation of what he's saying is that gold will more

likely go down with the volume sells. this is immediate term

and only temporary(maybe until xmas). once stronger

investment money takes gold in volume from weaker hands

it should form a base price point. a floor from where gold

can fight to move up to the next fighting price bracket. he's

a longer term gold bull from fundamentals but is saying that

lower prices is more likely at this point. as you've said before

it's the paper markets that determines the short term gold

prices. a strong physical market will not show up

immediately. markets are about momentum and volume,

and that takes time. I don't turn the heating on full blast(high

demand) and expect my home to warm up immediately.

 

HH

Edited November 22, 2017 by HawkHybrid

[sixgun]

Just now, HawkHybrid said:

 

my interpretation of what he's saying is that gold will more

likely go down with the volume sells. this is immediate term

and only temporary(maybe until xmas). once stronger

investment money takes gold in volume from weaker hands

it should form a base price point. a floor from where gold

can fight to move up the next fighting price bracket. he's a

longer term gold bull from fundamentals but is saying that

lower prices is more likely at this point. as you've said before

it's the paper markets that determines the short term gold

prices. a strong physical market will not show up

immediately. markets are about momentum and volume,

and that takes time.

 

HH

The guy has no more idea than the man in the Moon about what is going to happen over the coming months or year.

There have indeed been some large volume sells going on - this means there have been some large volume buys going on. For ever contract sold there is a contract bought. There are many calls at the moment for gold to go down into the end of the year. When there are many calls about anything you can be sure it is propaganda at the behest of the central planners

The paper markets are managed by the central planners because this is part of their management of fiat currencies and stock market indices. The single seller volumes that get flushed through breach intra-day position limits. These get reported for what it is worth to the so-called regulators who ignore these reports b/c it is their ultimate bosses who are doing the selling. There have been some desperate attempts to cap price at critical moving averages in the last few weeks. The only reason for the big volume sells is the likes of the Bank of International Settlements and agents of the Fed have been selling 100's of tonnes of paper gold and triggering stops of 1000's of tonnes of speculator positions. The problem they face when this happens and price slumps it triggers a tsunami of physical buy orders that sit there waiting. These take a few days to ultimately hit the markets but when these are presented for delivery they can and do push price higher b/c bullion banks have to deliver and they hedge this. The reason price is not at $800 is simply b/c of the physical market.

There is a game being played between Western central planners attempting to prop up the USD and the stock and bond markets on the one side and the Asian physical buyers, including their central banks on the other. For as long as physical can be delivered at bargain prices the physical market participants are happy for this to continue, all the time draining Western vaults until they are dry. i genuinely see this game is reaching a climax. i know large tonnage buy orders have been blocked, i hear 100's of tonnes of gold are going through the Exchange for Physical COMEX conduit which is supposed to be an exceptional event but this has been ramping up over recent months. Here COMEX shorts are actually being confronted with demands for delivery that will not go away even with bribes of large premiums. Even the regulators are feeling inclined to look into this.

This is building up and has been building up over the summer. Physical buying appears to be as strong as in 2008 when gold launched into its huge bull run. None of this will ever be visible from a chart of phantom gold proxies like GLD. Something is brewing and a price reset is certainly not a million miles away. A concerted physical buying frenzy is all that would be needed to close the markets and reset price significantly higher. When this does happen and it will, it will not be a slow process.

[HawkHybrid]

43 minutes ago, sixgun said:

This is building up and has been building up over the summer. Physical buying appears to be as strong as in 2008 when gold launched into its huge bull run.

 

did gold not temporarily go down first in 2008 before it

started the big rise? (he is a trader, being right but on

the wrong side of the immediate trade loses him money)

 

did gold not go down dec 2016 temporarily after what I

believe should be the bottom of the bear market(dec

2015). it's perfectly possible for a smaller dip this dec.

big buyers require volume selling. which only exist in

a short time frame if all the sellers are confident that

they can't possibly be wrong by selling. a gradual drop

in the price, ever threatening for a much larger drop

reinforces that belief. strong big buyers are required to

soak up supply to prepare for a possible move up.

 

HH

[sixgun]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

did gold not temporarily go down first in 2008 before it started the big rise?

We had the so-called financial crisis in 2008. Stock markets crashed. Quantitative Easing to infinity started and increase rates were suppressed. There was a flight to safety - precious metals. Physical buying was very strong. The purpose of mentioning 2008 was that physical buying today is on the same par with a time when there was panic and blood in the streets.

Yes price fell in 2008 and then recovered but with the situation in the world appearing to be quite different i am not clear where the analogy lies.

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

(he is a trader, being right but on the wrong side of the immediate trade loses him money)

There are millions of traders, many of the markets are zero sum games, so for every winner there is a loser.

 

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

did gold not go down dec 2016 temporarily after what I believe should be the bottom of the bear market (dec 2015). it's perfectly possible for a smaller dip this dec.

Yes price hit a bottom in December 2016 which was $120 higher than the low of 2015. Pundits with not else to say but babble are saying b/c there was a low in the December of 2015 an 2016, there will be another low in December 2017. The control media pundits read an auto cue and or are paid to come out with these statements. Goldman's Jeff Currie was calling for $800 at that time in 2016 AND advising clients to go short AND at the very same time Goldman's traders were buying heavily into precious metals.

Is a dip in December 2017 possible? Yes but that does not make the reasoning for any prognostications made correct.

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

big buyers require volume selling. which only exist in a short time frame if all the sellers are confident that they can't possibly be wrong by selling. a gradual drop in the price, ever threatening for a much larger drop reinforces that belief. strong big buyers are required to soak up supply to prepare for a possible move up.

The paper and physical markets are two very very different arenas. There hasn't been an over supply of physical to depress price for years. The market managers don't have the physical gold to play that game. The buyers of physical are playing a game which displays itself through the paper markets. The US Treasury and Western central banks control currencies through the paper markets and can only influence precious metals through the paper markets. The Chinese could explode the precious metal market over the weekend but they want to extract all the gold they can. They could lay out all their gold in the Beijing National Stadium and challenge the US to show their hand. They could step up state as fact that the US has no gold and simply reset the price at $6000/oz. The game would be over.

At the moment physical buying is as strong as during the meltdown in 2008. There are splits in the cartel of banks with Goldman Sachs buying physical. JP Morgan has amassed the largest silver stack in the world. We had a deficit of silver in 2016 and according to Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver, 2017 will be a further 50 million ounce of production lower. i know a gold and silver title of ownership crypto will be launched in the next couple of months and there will be an off take of 100's of tonnes of gold.

The chap flicking between charts of SLV, GLD and the metals in between many stupid voices and jokes does not factor any of this in and for that reason i do not give these people the time of day.

 

[HawkHybrid]

15 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Is a dip in December 2017 possible? Yes but that does not make the reasoning for any prognostications made correct.

 

nobody has a working crystal ball. you can't just dismiss

his guess on the basis that it is different from yours. you

know that gold have been moved lower recently. you

know that those who moved it lower currently still have

the means to do so. you know they could have possibly

been the ones that moved it lower last year. yet you

dismiss it as unlikely to happen this year because it

doesn't fit in with your preferred guess of what is going

to happen? he is saying that history could repeat itself.

it's hardly a moon shot prediction.

fact is fundamentals did not save the gold price from

falling from 2012 to 2014. fundamentals are great if you

bought and held from 2000-present. it's not so great if

you bought and held from 2011.

early data from the silver institute claims there's been

another deficit of ~32Moz(data goes up until oct 2017)

did the deficit in 2013 and 2014 help the silver price

move up in those years? who knows if the deficit will help

the current silver price move up this year? these

fundamentals don't determine the price movement in a

given year.

 

HH

[Pipers]

Imo for what it's worth, there is usually a a dip in November or December though not every year.  The bullion banks wait to close their positions this usually means a peace of good news for the economy or at least not bad news! Today we had loosening of spending in the UK imo this is not significant worldwide but the bullion banks would not fancy going in today they can wait!  I am not sure and correct me if I am wrong but the next closing date is December and with the USA debt ceiling coming up which will be extended imo that's when the banks will move or they may wait until the Xmas period when you and I cannot buy and the market is at it weakest! 

Please feel free to comment if you disagree but please keep it constructed!

[sixgun]

2 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

you can't just dismiss his guess on the basis that it is different from yours.

This is nothing to do with his conclusions, it is the basis for these conclusions. You can predict a price move correct but the basis of that prediction can be complete rubbish.

 

4 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 you know that gold have been moved lower recently.

 

Yes

6 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

you know that those who moved it lower currently still have the means to do so.

They have some ability but not to the extent of even a year ago. They can send price down by dumping 1000's of contracts into the market but this triggers tonnes of physical buys which they struggle to deal with. Very often these buys cannot be settled at the contract price b/c the gold cannot be sourced at that price. It can be $100's higher. This gold is begged, borrowed and stolen [literally]. It is getting very expensive to dump price. It can no longer be done with impunity as it was in the past. Buyers are becoming much more aggressive. Exchange for Physical transactions were unusual in the past but now we are looking at 100's tonnes of gold a month now. i feel sure the Asia has done its sums and is grabbing as much as possible whilst they can.

11 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

you know they could have possibly been the ones that moved it lower last year.

The self same culprits are still at work.

12 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

yet you dismiss it as unlikely to happen this year because it doesn't fit in with your preferred guess of what is going to happen?

You are projecting. i am not stating categorically what will happen to price, i simply say what is happening according to my contacts and what i can see in the data. i am saying the basis for these chart predictions are incomplete. The game has been changing over the last year but characters as in the video they are utterly oblivious to this. i am not proffering a preferred guess, i am stating what is happening. i am saying you cannot make an informed conclusion based on disinformation and half the facts. Charts predict based on past events, if events are fundamentally changing the charts cease to be useful.

Currently every time the usual culprits smack price down they are triggering huge buy orders for physical. This always happened but not to this extent. The immediately deliverable metal is in very short supply. When more than world production has been disappearing into Asian vaults, never to return, something has to give. The usual culprits are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they do not push price down the physical buyers will move their bids up but as they move their bids up they lock in losses for the banks which are still short and are carrying mind boggling underwater positions which have been rolled over for years.

21 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

he is saying that history could repeat itself. it's hardly a moon shot prediction.

History often repeats itself but you should base your prediction of the whole story especially when the forces acting are in an historic state of flux.

21 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

fact is fundamentals did not save the gold price from falling from 2012 to 2014. fundamentals are great if you bought and held from 2000-present. it's not so great if you bought and held from 2011. early data from the silver institute claims there's been another deficit of ~32Moz(data goes up until oct 2017) did the deficit in 2013 and 2014 help the silver price move up in those years? who knows if the deficit will help the current silver price move up this year? these fundamentals don't determine the price movement in a given year.

If the game were the same then we could apply previous performance on charts as a reasonable guide to future performance but the game has been changing over the past year and the pace of change is accelerating. This is my message. Take it or leave it.
 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

You are projecting.

 

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

If the game were the same then we could apply previous performance on charts as a reasonable guide to future performance but the game has been changing over the past year and the pace of change is accelerating

are you not projecting something that has yet to happen?

 

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

i am saying you cannot make an informed conclusion based on disinformation and half the facts.

I'm saying that until something actually happens, guesses

based on what you currently know to be true and might

still hold true are as good as any guesses of a change.

 

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

if events are fundamentally changing

fundamentally nothing has changed? manipulation?

overall deficit? gold moves from west to east? gold

ore grades lower year on year?

 

(I don't think a cryto backed by gold will make a difference

to the gold market, at least not in the short term)

 

HH

Edited November 22, 2017 by HawkHybrid

[Ansel]

On the way down again today. It has broken through £940 and is currently around £937, I'm hoping it will drop further when the USA market opens.

For someone, such as myself, who only started stacking this year these cheaper prices are rather exciting and a good opportunity to bring my price average down. 

[Jay2]

Relatively cheaper. It was only £700 an ounce just two years ago. £900 on December last year. I'm holding out for a lower mid-December price here too, but it's very tempting to start buying a few sovs here and there before then, in case political shenanigans throw a spanner in the plan  

Edited December 7, 2017 by Jay2

[JunkBond]

Trying to hold out here too, buying the odd 1/10 coz I have itchy fingers but not dipping heavily into my cash incase there is a big smash down.

@Roy told me to save my pennies! 

[JSILVER]

What is causing golds slump at the moment?
I would of thought with Tusks conference tomorrow, people would be worrying in the markets.

Could Bitcoin be taking some of the ground of gold? 
Its going mental, I much prefer gold though!

[JunkBond]

Quoted from @sixgun on the smashed down thread

 

Yes - there has been massive officially orchestrated sales of paper gold and silver. We saw a 17000 contract sale of gold futures earlier today, that is about 53 tonnes.  In silver 530 tonnes were flushed out. There was heavy selling last week to get price below the sweet spot for the BIS options and then they kept it going. JP Morgan came out with a short recommendation yesterday to add to the official selling. That means they will be going long behind the scenes. As speculators sell there must be someone buying on the other side and it will be the banks. Speculator HFT programmes are piling in and the recommendation by JPM was probably b/c the selling was drying up and the banks want more long contracts.

At the same time as this paper pantomime the Indians and Chinese are vacuuming up physical like it was going out of fashion. The banks are swapping out their short positions for long and driving down price is usually b/c there is bad news coming up. Non Farm Payroll is this Friday. Chances are the numbers are poor. The lower gold is the less likely it is going to breach critical stop levels when it goes up in response and so cost the criminal central banking cartel money. These banks can be long in one market and appear short in another so it fools most of the dumb money. The banks are building long physical positions.

i hear the gold and silver backed crypto i have mentioned several times is very likely to release its white paper this week. I am led to believe it will have more impact that previously thought. We will see. The link up with the German stock exchange is given as next month so unless there is a mishap it will be launched then and there will be a deluge of physical buying hitting the markets in the run up.