Should investors buy ?

[Pete]

An extract copied from the Hargreaves Landsdown website shedding a financial ( professional ) opinion on investing in PMs.

If you want to read the full article go to HL.co.uk

 

"A small holding of alternative assets, like Gold and Silver, can make sense for some investors. Historically, their price has not correlated with that of traditional investments, like bonds and shares. This means they have offered some shelter when markets have fallen.

However investors should be wary. The correlation between equity markets and gold has increased recently. Recent price falls reiterate that metal investing is not risk free - prices could rise but could certainly fall further. This is particularly true for silver, whose price has historically been very volatile."

[silversword]

This is groundbreaking news.

Also, it might rain, and it might not; consider holding an umbrella as part of a balanced portfolio.

[garthy]

To be honest it doesn't surprise me that H&L tell investors to be wary of gold and silver, the last place they'd want their investors money to be is tied up in PM's when they could be investing in stocks and earning them commission.

 

I hold gold,silver and stocks and the stocks are definitely my riskiest position, When stocks go down I panic, when gold and silver goes down I smile because I know their true value in the economy we live in, I can't say the same for the stock market.        

[Pipers]

Ok Pete most people 40+ own there own home, IMO the best hedge against your house is Gold/Silver as property and Gold work counter to each other.  As PM's have gone down my house has gone up.  Can you imagine if most of the public hedged against there house instead of just consuming 

[Pete]

I think a lot of stackers have forgotten this chart

 

[silversword]

I think a lot of stackers have forgotten this chart

 

silver chart.jpg

A lot will be thinking we've prettr much hit the bottom and it's time to buy.

[HighlandTiger]

Ok Pete most people 40+ own there own home, IMO the best hedge against your house is Gold/Silver as property and Gold work counter to each other.  As PM's have gone down my house has gone up.  Can you imagine if most of the public hedged against there house instead of just consuming 

 

I don't own my own home....BUT your statement has outlined one of my plans for my PM stack. come retirement. Pm's will rise, and property will fall, so I'll be selling my pm's at a high price, and buying a nice cheap little property somewhere.   

[craig12]

im waiting for a stock market crash   got mi money ready to buy them blue chips for penny share prices

[BaldyBob]

Possibly a tad optimistic Craig , but I am thinking along the same lines when the FTSE 100 gets back into the 4 thousands.

[craig12]

not a direct comparison , but had a look at the 1929 crash on you tube, but the only real difference was that only 10% of the stock price was needed to play back in 1929  so your average joe could buy $5000 worth of stock for $500 down , they gave an example of how they manipilated the market 

a cartel of around 4  low lifes would buy up a stock to make the stock rise , the stock would go $10 $12 $14 $16 etc etc  joe public get in at $16  then the low lifes who drove the stock up   then stop buying and sell    then the share crashes wiping the lower people out 

 

manipulation was happening even in 1929  a guy called it and warned of the inevitable crash was coming and was ignored by wall st and  hoover at the time 

 

dreadfull   but yes i think im gunna wait and wait and wait 

ftse at 6700  seems odd 

 

 

now wheres mi ticker tape machine

[ChrisSilver]

@Luker2,

I have deleted your post. please do not copy and paste huge amounts of text from other websites, and especially with none of your own words. This is bad for our google ranking.

By all means quote text from other sources, but you should quote it. Not simply copy and paste huge articles.

Thank you for your understanding.

[Pipers]

not a direct comparison , but had a look at the 1929 crash on you tube, but the only real difference was that only 10% of the stock price was needed to play back in 1929  so your average joe could buy $5000 worth of stock for $500 down , they gave an example of how they manipilated the market 

a cartel of around 4  low lifes would buy up a stock to make the stock rise , the stock would go $10 $12 $14 $16 etc etc  joe public get in at $16  then the low lifes who drove the stock up   then stop buying and sell    then the share crashes wiping the lower people out 

 

manipulation was happening even in 1929  a guy called it and warned of the inevitable crash was coming and was ignored by wall st and  hoover at the time 

 

dreadfull   but yes i think im gunna wait and wait and wait 

ftse at 6700  seems odd 

 

 

now wheres mi ticker tape machine

 

 

Craig brings up an interesting point here, the stock market in the US in the early 1930's was regulated because of the traders actions and lots of traders/bankers were thrown in prison.  They used wash trades to manipulate the markets and caused the depression.  When people were starving you had the rich living it up for years until it knocked on there door 'Happy days are here again' the song was popular in the depression as the rich were having a whale of a time as everyone else was struggling.

 

It took Franklin D Roosevelt, who became the best US president (IMO) to get the USA out of the depression and sort out the Bankers/traders. Make no doubt he confiscated Gold because of the Bankers/traders (again the majority paid for the riches greed).  Here is a link to his wiki page for anyone who is interested

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt

 

and here is a article about Gold confiscation 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9968494/Roosevelts-gold-confiscation-could-it-happen-again.html

[Pete]

The world is totally different today than in the 1930's.

Trading is global and superfast and there are trillions of dollars trading every day.

There are market makers, market manipulators and other huge institutions with vast sums of cash and IOUs in the ether.

 

Stock markets are seen as fair value and not necessarily overpriced so in many countries there remains lots of upside potential.

What we also have in the prosperous parts of the world is more demand, more free cash and growing populations.

Everyone knows China and India for example are becoming more prosperous and the better-off love their PM jewellery.

One would assume therefore that PMs are due for an upside correction soon.

Some countires are worried about devaluation of fiat and are stacking more gold.

Russia is piling into gold and perhaps several other countries are doing the same.

There will come a time when physical is called upon and that will put a cat amongst the pigeons.

Gold and silver are depressed right now but hopefully will stage a recovery but whilst there are so many ways of making a fast buck electronically on the swings, volatility will continue.

Who could have forecast the drop in oil prices as this is a finite resource.

Logic would make you think it could only stay at a key level or rise but not fall.

Same would apply to PMs but logic is irrelevant in manipulated markets with megabucks for the traders.

[Fluttershy]

In My opinion , No, I don`t think PM`s are a good investment at all.

they`re a Great hedge against Fiat and banks, and an excellent way to store your long term savings (maybe the Only good way to do it and be outside the banking system).

but they aren`t a good investment in the true sense, Micro lending would be better for instance, but having Said that, the collectable coins (numismatics) are much better in the PM area for an investment that for someone like me that collects generic bullion and maples purely for the silver content alone.

I also have investments, and some also involve Silver and not all of it is Jewellery, and no I`m not telling you how to tripple your cash paid on Silver! (at least not for free anyway!) 

[BaldyBob]

I am with FS. If you are stacking for overnight riches, prepare to be disappointed.

As a safety net though, physical PM's are in their element.

[garthy]

A good way to spend 22 minutes, great video

 

 

[HighlandTiger]

A good way to spend 22 minutes, great video

 

 

 300 ounces of gold?  I've got no chance, although 100-150 ounces is do-able for me. I need gold to crash for a good few years, so I can catch up...........

[Pete]

A good way to spend 22 minutes, great video

 

 

 

Don't waste 20 minutes of your life listening to this waffle / sermon.

Would be suitable for BBC radio 4 morning "thought for the day" !

[Shamatti]

PMs are many things, to many people. And the really cool thing about it is that everyone, one way or the other, is right.

 

PMs are a store of wealth. This store will survive better than FIAT wealth, is not subject to confiscation Cyprus style, and won't depreciate as interest is left behind by inflation.

 

It is a hedge against collapsing FIAT currency.

 

It is an investment for the future, if you are willing to hold on to it for long enough. I'd wager that 20 years from now your silver will be worth more than your savings.

 

EXAMPLE: For the last 21 years I have been paying £49 odd pounds into an endowment policy which I got with my first mortgage. If I had purchased £49 worth of silver every month for the last 21 years it would have duck loads more value than my endowment policy currently does! (Which is fractionally more than I have paid in to it over that period!)

 

If you want an investment which will be slow to return a profit, but very quick to place a smile on your face, then silver and gold is what you are looking for. You can hang on to it, literally, for years. Admire, it, enjoy it, and when the next bubble comes, sell it and profit from it it greatly.

 

I hope!!!!

[Pipers]

The world is totally different today than in the 1930's.

Trading is global and superfast and there are trillions of dollars trading every day.

There are market makers, market manipulators and other huge institutions with vast sums of cash and IOUs in the ether.

 

Stock markets are seen as fair value and not necessarily overpriced so in many countries there remains lots of upside potential.

What we also have in the prosperous parts of the world is more demand, more free cash and growing populations.

Everyone knows China and India for example are becoming more prosperous and the better-off love their PM jewellery.

One would assume therefore that PMs are due for an upside correction soon.

Some countires are worried about devaluation of fiat and are stacking more gold.

Russia is piling into gold and perhaps several other countries are doing the same.

There will come a time when physical is called upon and that will put a cat amongst the pigeons.

Gold and silver are depressed right now but hopefully will stage a recovery but whilst there are so many ways of making a fast buck electronically on the swings, volatility will continue.

Who could have forecast the drop in oil prices as this is a finite resource.

Logic would make you think it could only stay at a key level or rise but not fall.

Same would apply to PMs but logic is irrelevant in manipulated markets with megabucks for the traders.

 

 

Yes the world is totally different from the 1930's, but not everything has changed!

 

Glass Steagall  Act brought in in the 1930's stopped a lot of the Banks shenanigans, It was then repealed under Clinton, we all know what happened next. 

 

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/glass_steagall_act.asp

 

It is true stock markets have been opened to all to invest in since the early 1980's (Thatchers big bang) but to counter that, we now have computers right next to stock markets with there algorithms taking the best prices and shaving points from there own clients for themselves.  

 

We also have media outlets that can be good and bad, the big trading firms want a price to go one way you can bet they will make a story up for the press to run with, you only have to read on this forum one or two members continually just repeat the same sources without going anywhere else.  To read about propaganda Edward Bernays.

 

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays

 

I did not see the oil price fall and indeed lost money on it.  Having said that was it a bad call on my part?  Here is why I think it might of been.

 

There is a Cold war starting between the west and the rest of the world, mainly Russia, China, Iran.  As you know small wars are being fought Syria,Ukraine Etc Sanctions are starting to be applied  and are starting to hurt both sides financially.  In early October Oil went into backwardation this means a price rise is coming. Then out of knowhere the Saudis start to pump more oil with out consulting OPEC stating they needed market share.  It makes no sense for the Saudis to pump so much oil that they send the price down to  $75 apart from to hurt the Russians and the Iranians,  The Saudis could have pumped just enough to take market share, and stop fracking investment at $95.

 

 In the mean time China are filling there boots . The UK cannot because we do not invest in anything and do not have any storage!

 

QE to me has just kicked to ball down the road, you are right to talk about Deflation of fiat money, as you cannot make lots more of it and it be worth the same.  

 

I do disagree with the term market maker, the price of lets say Gold did not go to zero when no one wanted to trade, you just had to up your price or lower your price to lure someone in.  These so called market makers are nothing more than market fixers who enable traders to get out of bad trades easily and cheaply. Or they manipulate the price!