Have a look at this chart

[motorbikez]

Although I'm not a chartist ,when I was investing heavily I did look at them now and again, I found them mainly useful for short term momentum trading, something I did only occasionally as I am primarily a long term investor.

 

Anyway to people who are concerned about the silver sell off this may be interesting to you.In my eyes this chart can apply to any market PMs, Shares hard and soft commodities housing etc.

 

https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/stages_in_a_bubble.html

 

 

 

I personally feel we are well down the capitulation phase,I've noticed on various websites including here people are starting to flap about Pm prices.

 

If I were a stacker I would be holding and buying more on any serious set back as the phase will turn again.As a collector I just keep buying what I like to complete sets.

 

These are my own thoughts and I'm not advising anyone, my risk appetite may be different from others but i wouldn't be panicked into selling anything.

[FTYBR]

Yes useful chart to help investors link emotions to logic. Personally I think we're in the bear trap phase , the secular bull is about to resume. You ain't seen nuffin yet...

[motorbikez]

I hope you are right but this chart from kitco shows some similarity to the above re silver.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My point is to any stackers getting despondent don't give your Pms away for nothing, which regarding bullion silver is as cheap as chips.You look at the costs involved in mining and very soon if not already smaller operators will be closing down,larger operators will be mothballing projects etc.

 

It is not a case of mothballing a mine today and opening it again next week,you shut the operation down it could take 6-12 months to get that production back online.Silvers rise will come when who knows,but the manipulators cannot control large mining companies and their shareholders.

 

A shortage of supply should send silver skywards.

[Fluttershy]

not to derail the thread or anything, but i am curious as to Why this thread was needed, more precisely, Why would a stacker get despondent?

 

I`m relatively new this game myself (only 6 months in) so i`msure I`m missing something here! and would love to know What it is

[garthy]

To be a good trader we need to go against our natural instincts, I learnt a lot and in turn have lost a lot from the last silver bull run, let's face it most silver investors were novices back then and the silver sales reps took advantage of that, when expierienced traders were screaming bubble most silver stackers were saying no way it's going to the moon,  it was hard lesson but a lesson worth taking.

 

Trading with emotions will usually make you lose, the above chart is great and so true.

[FTYBR]

I hope you are right but this chart from kitco shows some similarity to the above re silver.

My point is to any stackers getting despondent don't give your Pms away for nothing, which regarding bullion silver is as cheap as chips.You look at the costs involved in mining and very soon if not already smaller operators will be closing down,larger operators will be mothballing projects etc.

It is not a case of mothballing a mine today and opening it again next week,you shut the operation down it could take 6-12 months to get that production back online.Silvers rise will come when who knows,but the manipulators cannot control large mining companies and their shareholders.

A shortage of supply should send silver skywards.

Agree with your explanation of the mining situation entirely. That's when I worry about expropriation of mining resources by governments. Supply will eventually dry up like the lakes in California

Regarding the chart, I see that it does follow a similar pattern. However if you stand back and look at the longer term picture and compare with the late 70's, early 80's - when viewing the inflation adjusted chart - we're nowhere near peak yet.

[FTYBR]

not to derail the thread or anything, but i am curious as to Why this thread was needed, more precisely, Why would a stacker get despondent?

 

I`m relatively new this game myself (only 6 months in) so i`msure I`m missing something here! and would love to know What it is

Ask the long term stackers about despondency! Or those buying metals with cash they actually need in near future. I think MB was extending some reassurances to anyone thinking they've made the wrong choice buying silver. Anything that prompts a useful debate is worth a thread.

[Fluttershy]

Hmm.. it seems hard to imagine real stackers getting despondent at all, I thought the dips were a Good thing and the longer the better, and of course the longer they had been a stacker the more hardened to the truths they became?

I know that my 50p a gram will probably be a Wish for some, and others will think I`m crazy for paying it.

surely it`s what You think that matters when the evidence is weighed up

 

 

as I said before, i`m sure i`m missing something here????

[motorbikez]

not to derail the thread or anything, but i am curious as to Why this thread was needed, more precisely, Why would a stacker get despondent?

 

I`m relatively new this game myself (only 6 months in) so i`msure I`m missing something here! and would love to know What it is

 

People who have been stacking bullion for over 18 months or so will have seen the price of the coins/bars going for nearly half what they paid originally,it is a natural human instinct to be a bit despondent to see your investment fall in value especially if it is your only meaningful asset.

 

IMHO you should continue to buy and average down,or at least hold your nerve and hold your Pm's

Now is the worst time possible to sell Pm's. I would not say the same about shares they are very toppy.

 

I've said this before don't put all your eggs into one asset class and keep some ready cash for emergencies so you are not forced to sell.

[HelpingHands]

Flut, I'm sure there will be stackers who are about to to retire and thought they'd be cashing in now. It depends how long people believe they can wait.

[motorbikez]

Flut, I'm sure there will be stackers who are about to to retire and thought they'd be cashing in now. It depends how long people believe they can wait.

 

It also depends on their entry point Flut is a very recent stacker.

[Fluttershy]

I guess barring accidental death (in which case i wont be in a possition to care anyway) , i`v considered 20 years a reasonable time scale for silver to "do something".

and am fully cognisant of potential risks (and have hedged them).

I thought All stackers did this from the start too and had even neater tricks up their sleeve that i would never think of.

 

PMs (and Semiconductors) are all my eggs in the basket, I don`t feel uncomfortable with this

 

as I said, i`m sure i`m missing something here, it doesn`t seem complicated enough to me!

[Shamatti]

I have been stacking for 2½ years, some of my silver I paid crazy amounts for. I love the dips as it gives me a chance to lower my overall average. But they do sometimes make me just stop and think WTF!? Have I thrown thousands away? It is hard. I have to give myself a good talking to and remember that by the time I come to sell, hopefully in a few years time at least, prices will be up again and all the buying I have done recently will make my profit for me. If prices return to where they were when I started I make no money all the silver I have owned all that time. It is the stuff I am buying now that will make me money. Plus, I have to remember that I started stacking for the SHTF scenario - in which case whatever I paid for it will be entirely immaterial!

[BaldyBob]

I wait to be shot down, but I am not convinced we should be comparing the 1980's chart with the present.

 

The former was largely an 'engineered' situation by individuals. The modern graph will be defined by one or more of the following;

- declining stocks, or certainly increased extraction costs

- The possible resurgence of silver as a trusted form of currency if fiat collapses

- increased demand for silver from technology

 

I am sure there are more.

 

Anyway, aren't all these dips caused by them dumping paper silver