Recommended reading for everyone on this forum

[Pipers]

This is an excellent read and explanation of the recent commodities price fall and what to expect with a future interest rate rise and what the market expect.

 

  https://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/gold-gibson-paradox

[Paul]

 

 

Some analysis of the recent Chinese devaluation of the yuan and its implications going forward

 

Strap yourself in folks - the currency wars are hotting up 

 

The biggest one day drop since January 1994  .... What followed in 1994 was the great bond market massacre.

 

Every 7 years like clock-work ... 1987 (Black Monday), 1994, 2001, 2008 ..... 2015 (>>>?????)

 

The great reset ?

The 7 yr shemitah?

Legarde's and her speech on the magical number 7?

 

Grab your popcorn and get ready for September.  Fear porn 'the end is neigh' golds going to the moon 

[HelpingHands]

Greenspan warns about bond-market bubble

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greenspan-warns-about-bond-market-bubble-2015-08-19?mod=mw_share_facebook

[Cointreau]

Brutal.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_bghdJx87A

HH,wanted to bring this vid back for another watch.

[Paul]

 

First interview with 'Mr Gold' Jim Sinclair in a long long while  he has been a highly respected and world renowned voice in the precious metals community for decades. 

 

It's more doom and gloom porn for September and beyond I'm afraid folks

[Cornishfarmer]

It's more doom and gloom porn for September and beyond I'm afraid folks

That's HARD to believe

[Danny-boy]

Really enjoyed watching that vid.

[Cointreau]

That's HARD to believe

There will be a climax at the end of it all.

[Cointreau]

Yesterday's closing position on the Dow was 15.666.44

15 is the current year.

666 is the number of the beast.

Obama is the 44th President.

[silversword]

Yesterday's closing position on the Dow was 15.666.44

15 is the current year.

666 is the number of the beast.

Obama is the 44th President.

 

What exactly are you inferring?

[HighlandTiger]

 

First interview with 'Mr Gold' Jim Sinclair in a long long while  he has been a highly respected and world renowned voice in the precious metals community for decades. 

 

It's more doom and gloom porn for September and beyond I'm afraid folks

 

He's shouting for $50,000 gold, and silver will probably be about $1500.

 

So my current stack will be worth about, £750k.     Nice one

 

Problem is, a loaf of bread will be about £100 ......and I'll be on ebay trying to flog a sovereign for about £8k. 

[KDave]

$50,000 gold - does he mean if everyone starts using it as a savings vehicle instead of stocks and cash? Or is he talking the about dollar becoming worthless? 

 

I can't see the video for some reason must be a problem with my browser.

 

Edit - Can't see the video not can 

[HelpingHands]

$50,000 gold - does he mean if everyone starts using it as a savings vehicle instead of stocks and cash? Or is he talking the about dollar becoming worthless? 

 

I can't see the video for some reason must be a problem with my browser.

 

Edit - Can't see the video not can

Here is the link instead.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7tTdO6oxUA

[HighlandTiger]

$50,000 gold - does he mean if everyone starts using it as a savings vehicle instead of stocks and cash? Or is he talking the about dollar becoming worthless? 

 

The latter. Keeps harking back to the Weimar Republic.

[KDave]

Ah yes, if gold goes up because of hyperinflation it is not what a sensible chap would consider a good thing. Gold for bread is a bit too Zimbabwe for my liking.

[Pipers]

Goldmoney's  weekly Analysis 

 

This is a must read!!

 

 https://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/economics-of-a-crash#

 

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/updates/silver-sold-then-squeezed

 

 

Update  Week end 21/08/2015 

 

Shanghai Gold deliveries up 11.8% to 73.0131 Tonnes

 

Thanks to  twitter@MacleodFinance.

[Pipers]

Just noticed this article, things are not as rosy with the UK housing market as the Government would like everyone to think, even that great independent news organization the BBC could not spin this one.  Even with all the help the housing market has had it looks topping out and on its way to popping!!!!

 

   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34085149 

[HighlandTiger]

Housing bubble will never "pop", as long as we are getting 300,000 + migrants wandering onto our shores every year.

 

We need to build an extra 100.000 homes a year just to house that lot. And that is without the adding on all the kids they are going to churn out year on year.

 

Currently there are around 130,000 homes being built as we speak now. So that should just about cover this years influx of migrants.

 

Leaves us with a massive shortfall of homes for the rest of us to live in.

 

Until the UK builds about 300,000 - 500,000 homes a year for the next few decades, demand will outstrip supply. There may be a few temporary ups and downs with local prices, but in the long run, housing prices will continue upwards.  

[Pipers]

Disagree, when the baby boomers die off, who will buy there homes?

 

When baby boomers die off who will vote for a party that will not build lots of homes?

 

The young professionals are angry with this country about housing, plus young trades men and women are angry about housing too.

 

The storm is in the distance.

[HighlandTiger]

Disagree, when the baby boomers die off, who will buy there homes?

 

So the baby boomers die off..............so are we to assume that the population of the UK is suddenly going to fall?

 

If you want to know who will buy the baby boomers homes, try looking at their 2.4 children or their 5 grandchildren.

 

Simple maths, there are currently 26.473 million homes in the UK for 64 million people.

 

That is one home per  2.42 people.

 

Population of UK is increasing by 500,000 per year.

 

130,000 homes built this year at 2.42 people =  314,600 people

 

so we have a shortfall of around 76,600 homes just to STAY at the status quo. And that is just for THIS year.

 

Unless we build enough homes to cover the 500.000 extra people per year, which is 206,600 homes, and this is the MINIMUM number just to stay still, prices are not going to fall 

 

If you want to see house prices dropping you need a surplus of housing, not a shortfall.

[KDave]

I think the main drivers of house prices today is access to cheap credit from the banking system combined with government interference on a scale seen in no other asset type bar the stock market.

 

Put simply, house prices are where they are because of what people can afford to borrow. Average people will borrow the maximum amount they can afford to maintain. Given the general rises in house prices in the past and the common mentality that 'house prices only ever go up' why would they not want to borrow the maximum amount? In other words, many people view houses as an investment and use affordable leverage to gear up on the future house price increases. This is only possible because of what someone else (a bank) will lend. Naturally if the supply of credit dry up for any reason, the amount people can offer for the current housing stock will be reduced.

 

As an asset class (residential property for yield) the government historically has allowed generous allowances for landlords regarding tax and guarantees the viability of a buy to let via the supply of housing benefit. This allows a base level at which rent can be set, subsidised through the government and some BTL would not be viable without this support (leverage and maintenance costs require the subsidy to break even in some cases). Housing benefit then, is in effect not a benefit for the poor but a benefit for landlords. Should the benefit be lower, rents would be forced lower and profits (if any) would be lower. The tax situation is already beginning to change regarding the recent changes in the budget which is the first indication the government is beginning to change its stance regarding housing. In these times of 'austerity' I would not be surprised if housing benefit was next on the list to be reduced, effectively reducing the base level at which rents can be set. 

 

The supply of housing has also been severely restricted in the past but this will change given enough political will, which as Pipers has said is on the rise as it is the only aspect of the equation that most people understand. Should the government take a step back and end its support in the housing market, the banks tighten lending practices or a political party with a building spree in mind get into power - then house prices would fall. The only way the current situation can be maintained requires all of these things to remain in place. To see gains in house prices, their would have to be wage rises or even more lending (read more debt as if we haven't got enough already). Neither are looking likely in the current economic environment. To me, housing has way more downside than up, but I have been wrong in the past - hence my presence on a forum about investing in gold and silver lol. 

[Stu]

@KDave could not agree more. All the money printing and cheap lending, zero % interest rates has created massive bubbles in stocks, bonds and property. Inflation should be a true correlation as to how much money is in circulation, however central banks have kept them artificially low to prop up these assets. Once this scheme ultimately runs out of tricks and deceit the game will be over. You may see a short period of deflation, however the market will reset taking into account All the money and debt in circulation and hyper inflation take off. But don't worry about our poor bankers and politicians, they know this better than anyone, they devised the system and will be well diversified and protected. The rest of us, well we can eat cake.

[Paul]

 

A video from yesterday of Goldmoney's Alistair McLeod commentary on current economic times

[HighlandTiger]

Just one question to ponder. I understand the gist of the point you ate making in that if there is no more cheap credit then house prices will fall. But I have to ask. who is going to build the houses required for the increases in population if they cannot afford to build in the first place.

[sovereignsteve]

Just one question to ponder. I understand the gist of the point you ate making in that if there is no more cheap credit then house prices will fall. But I have to ask. who is going to build the houses required for the increases in population if they cannot afford to build in the first place.

The house builders have to build a certain number of houses to stay in business. What that number is, who knows. It doesn't cost that much to build a house. If they have to sell them at prices people can afford then land prices will have to come down. Land that they currently own may well have to utilised at a loss. Also, trade wages will come down as fewer houses are being built.

 

However, if folk can't afford to buy then more will have to rent. This will increase rental prices and thus house prices as more landlords buy more houses! It's another situation where a state of flux exists between a number of factors. A change in any of them results in a new state of equilibrium being reached.