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Shamatti

Is the UK housing bubble about to Burst?

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Can't remember exact figures but his mortgage on it is £350pm & rental income is £625. The property being a new build flat comes with a 10year guarantee on certain things. 60k in the bank earns nothing so may aswel invest in property.

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Anyone who thinks that government subsidies make houses cheaper to buy needs a headcheck.

All that Help To Buy has done is massively inflate the new build sector:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_05/Screenshot_20170525-124231.thumb.jpg.a47026f534dcc2a9af79ab232ba17f79.jpg

Newbuild train wreck coming soon:

http://www.bridgingandcommercial.co.uk/article-desc-12003_the-slow-moving-train-wreck-has-entered-the-station

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No way the housing market will correct for another 10 years Imho.

interest rates will stay pretty low to keep govt debt repayments low and they came build enough houses to keep up with demand. +25% in 10 years 

 

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It is turning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40117132

Doesn't matter if interest rates are zero, prices cannot go up forever, and when they stop going up then usually the start going the opposite way.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_06/nw3m.gif.3ac2dec40cf53f9fd3ba0caf0c37dedf.gif

 

Edited by vand

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/May_2017.pdf

It certainly is turning! This is national average prices and movements, including the bubbliest of bubbly south. Fingers crossed the insanity will end there soon.

Its all relative though; where I am buying (according to right move), prices are up a whopping 5% since 2007, where as my wage has risen far more than that. I can't speak for others living here, but in real terms for me, house prices have been falling since I moved here.

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Even Rightmove, the most bullish of Indexes, and a proxy for seller expectations has taken a haircut in the last month:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/rightmove-uk-house-prices-record-first-june-fall-since-2009-2017-6

UK -0.4%
London -2.4%

 

If you are heavily leveraged in UK property right now then god help you.

Edited by vand

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Is that not just a sign silly London prices are actually coming back to a more affordable price?

Prices in Leicester where I am have not come down & seem to still be creeping up. I am looking to move home after Christmas so if there is a dip then may it continue for now.

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I believe that prices in London went into bubble territory while many places, with a number of exceptions, remained for the most part static, or in certain areas fell in real terms. Prices have not moved at all where I have lived for the past 5 years do example. 

The bubble in London meant many people could cash out bubble priced property and move elsewhere and keep the difference, this had some effect on prices elsewhere in the country but was limited to certain areas. There will likely be a knock on effect there as London deflates, but beyond that I can't see a collapse in house prices nationally unless the props such as help to buy are removed (sadly has been extended), interest rates rise significantly or there is a change in politics and policy (labour?). 

Interest rates rising is the biggest threat to national house prices in my view. Rises in quick succession will be the most devastating, but not likely in my opinion. 

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