Would a price reset lower mintage figures?

[MickB]

When/if the day comes with a reset of the value of gold & silver, would there be a possibility of coin mintage figures being very low?

My thinking is that not everyone will have ready money available to buy at the new price and it would take a while for everyone to catch up in buying as they were previously.

[sixgun]

There would be a number of forces operating come the time precious metals are reset.

In the recent Greg Hunter interview with Andrew Maguire and Kinesis CEO Tom Coughlin, Coughlin mentioned how tight the silver market is. That there isn't a sea of silver to be got. The man in the street does not think in terms of precious metals but most that do think about silver are kept in ignorance of how the silver market is hand to mouth. There may be piles of silver on paper but that does not mean they are up for sale at today's prices. If the mints were to cut back on production in a big way before the reset then the balloon would go up and there would be a rush to get hands on physical. However after a reset no illusion needs to be created, the jig is up. So it may well be the mints will cut back on production on the pre-text demand has fallen.

i imagine gold in large denominations - an ounce would be out of reach for many but at the same time there would be those who would not consider buying gold at the moment would become very interested in actual physical. At the moment many of those buying gold are crankies like us but the market could be flooded by those who are paper investors at the moment but will want to hold gold as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven. We can only guess how this dynamic will operate.

Silver could be $100's rather than teens. i expect mintages to fall.

[MickB]

I was wondering also what would happen to previous low mintage years. Would a new low mintage year be worth as much as a previously low mintage year?

Say for example, a 1997 silver maple, would it be worth more than say (if it happens) a 2019 silver maple that could possibly be a low mintage?

 

[sixgun]

Well i expect we will see a relative fall in premiums with silver coins.

i don't see why the basic minting costs for a 1oz gold coin of the same volume should be different to a 1oz silver (except you are carrying more expensive stock which is a cash flow and potential borrowings issue). If we were to say that is £1 to mint a coin; that £1 on a gold coin is negligible but on a silver coin it is almost 10% of the current spot price. Notwithstanding that the overall premiums ignoring tax seem to be much higher with silver. i don't know if that is just traditional and accepted or if there are economic reasons for this. Whatever it is, the percentage premiums for silver could not reasonably carry through into a significantly higher post reset price. If spot were $500 who is going to pay $100's extra on top for a coin? So in an odd way silver would become better value even though you were paying much more.

Older low mintage coins will usually sell for more but at the end of the day the price is what people are prepared to pay and if there are 100 people after 50 coins, i don't expect the prices to be a million miles apart.

[KDave]

I remember looking at the perth mintage's for the lunars and in 2011 they fell quite a bit. I assume due to the increased price. 

Premiums in the collectors market would likely evaporate on older bullion coins imo.

[Roy]

I was thinking about this earlier.

When the price resets to around $5000 an ounce, probably between now and the end of September, what would I do with all my 'special' coins?

Would I sell everything as bullion? C'mon, you'd accept $5000 for a St. Gaudens. $1250 for a 1/4 Queen's Beast or Britannia.

Even a 1/10 Krug would be worth $500. Surely you'd sell the blooming lot?!

[sovereignsteve]

1 hour ago, Roy said:

I was thinking about this earlier.

When the price resets to around $5000 an ounce, probably between now and the end of September, what would I do with all my 'special' coins?

Would I sell everything as bullion? C'mon, you'd accept $5000 for a St. Gaudens. $1250 for a 1/4 Queen's Beast or Britannia.

Even a 1/10 Krug would be worth $500. Surely you'd sell the blooming lot?!

I've been asking myself this for years. Would I have the heart to sell the majority of my sovereigns for the new bullion price?

[MickB]

8 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

I've been asking myself this for years. Would I have the heart to sell the majority of my sovereigns for the new bullion price?

Keep your best ones at least. I'd find it hard to justify spending extra money on a coin that I would have got way cheaper before a reset.

[Shinus73]

11 hours ago, KDave said:

I remember looking at the perth mintage's for the lunars and in 2011 they fell quite a bit. I assume due to the increased price. 

Premiums in the collectors market would likely evaporate on older bullion coins imo.

My stacking/collecting/selling plods along based on the premise that there won’t be a reset, but there’s always that hope. 

I’m basically using the little knowledge I have to try and extract a little bit of profit from the current pricing regime.

If there is a significant reset, happy days, I’d happily sell everything at the increased spot price and not worry about lost premiums.

[KDave]

12 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

My stacking/collecting/selling plods along based on the premise that there won’t be a reset, but there’s always that hope. 

I’m basically using the little knowledge I have to try and extract a little bit of profit from the current pricing regime.

If there is a significant reset, happy days, I’d happily sell everything at the increased spot price and not worry about lost premiums.

I agree, there are many facets to gold, the least likely perhaps is the reset that makes us wealthy. Gold as a savings vehicle is my primary reason for buying, among others. 

[Paul]

I think stackers natural instinct would be if gold seems too expensive, you would get more for your buck with silver