The price of silver

[vand]

8 minutes ago, Lowlow said:

I definitely think its easier to buy silver in anticipation of someday trading it for gold at 80:1 than it would be to buy gold in anticipation of someday trading it for silver at 30:1 ... because I think we all feel that 80:1 is near a top in GSR, while 30:1, well, I would have trouble trading there because it might go to 25:1, or 20:1, or 18:1, or ... I think it is harder to see the other end of that pendulum swing.  Could GSR go to 100:1 ?  I don't see how that happens, but mileage may vary.

Considering GSR was 100:1 back in the early 90s there is no reason at all why it could not go back there, and I can easily see a scenario where it can happen. 

The GSR is what it is. If by going to 100:1 it would invalidated your belief in silver and cause you to question why you hold PMs, then probably best that you don't put all your eggs in the silver basket but buy some gold too. 

[Lowlow]

3 hours ago, Kman said:

Bullion silver and gold aren't a very good investment

It's the lazy/unskilled persons investment, takes no research or knowledge, just buy and hope for the best

I've never seen them as an investment, just a nice store of wealth and gold does the job in a much more compact way

As Steve says I've never heard it explained very persuasively why the GTS has to be a certain way other than it used to be

I agree with this in a way.

To me an "investment" is more of an active thing, it is a bit speculative, it means you're interacting with the world to try to create wealth not just trying to store value.  If you're making money in silver, you're not really creating wealth, you're pretty much hedging, or storing value.  I know the textbook definition would see that as an investment too, because it has the potential to make money, but you aren't really creating wealth in the cosmic sense .. you're not building a structure where none existed, creating a work of art, bringing people together so that their efforts become more than the sum of their efforts individually, etc, and to me that is more of what an "investment" is.  I think of a real investment from the perspective of a capitalist, from the perspective of using money to create more than was there, and you really aren't doing that when you buy silver and gold, which I think of more as a currency transaction, or a land purchase.

On this argument against believing things will be because they used to be, I think that's an appeal to relativism, and I'm not buying.  Lots of things are because they used to be, and many things are cyclic.  While it's sometimes true that "past performance is not indicative of future results", I would still bet money that a new mother is going to suckle her newborn baby, that somewhere today a Brit will enjoy some tea, and that spring will inevitably follow winter.  Though it may not be an argument to say that something is likely to happen because it has happened in the past, it's also not an argument to say that it won't happen "because future".

[Lowlow]

35 minutes ago, vand said:

Considering GSR was 100:1 back in the early 90s there is no reason at all why it could not go back there, and I can easily see a scenario where it can happen. 

The GSR is what it is. If by going to 100:1 it would invalidated your belief in silver and cause you to question why you hold PMs, then probably best that you don't put all your eggs in the silver basket but buy some gold too. 

Yeah but how long was it at 100:1 ?

I'm not a trader that can be pushed out of a silver position.  I would pretty much have to hear that they found a way to use cold fusion to create silver from burnt breakfast toast to push me out of silver.

[vand]

24 minutes ago, Lowlow said:

Yeah but how long was it at 100:1 ?

I'm not a trader that can be pushed out of a silver position.  I would pretty much have to hear that they found a way to use cold fusion to create silver from burnt breakfast toast to push me out of silver.

1-2 months.

But it was over 90 most of the period between Oct 1990 - March 1993

High readings can go on for a while. Extreme reading tend to peak for only 1-2 months. Right now we are just about touching a high reading. Those who are getting disenfranchised at 80:1 have very little chance of seeing this all the way through. The market is designed to flush out all but the strongest holders and take as few people with it as possible; for that is the way it MUST be.

[Pipers]

5 hours ago, Kman said:

Bullion silver and gold aren't a very good investment

It's the lazy/unskilled persons investment, takes no research or knowledge, just buy and hope for the best

I've never seen them as an investment, just a nice store of wealth and gold does the job in a much more compact way

As Steve says I've never heard it explained very persuasively why the GTS has to be a certain way other than it used to be 

 

 

This is is just wrong, especially with gold.  One could easily judge the credit cycle then buy gold then sell.  This works with bonds and the stock market.

 

[Pipers]

6 hours ago, Kman said:

Bullion silver and gold aren't a very good investment

It's the lazy/unskilled persons investment, takes no research or knowledge, just buy and hope for the best

I've never seen them as an investment, just a nice store of wealth and gold does the job in a much more compact way

As Steve says I've never heard it explained very persuasively why the GTS has to be a certain way other than it used to be 

 

 

Kman IMO, ?

Thisis is just wrong, especially with gold.  One could easily judge the credit cycle then buy gold then sell.  This works with bonds and the stock market. True silver is harder to predict though in the paper market there is money to be made. 

Also, I must add Gold should always be part of a long term investment plan.  I have silver in my investment plan too. I am losing on silver something I do not like to do!  As it has been pointed out in this good thread silver is out of favour, it is up to the investor to make a decision to buy hold or to sell.  I cannot remember any of the long-term members of the forum saying silver is going to the moon as some on YouTube state though others on YouTube offer good viewing and good long-term advice.

I stand by my buying strategy on both gold and silver I hold for the long term?

I am not lazy it took me time to write this when I could of been watching TV?

Keep the thread going it very good reading ?

 

[phoenix]

If you look at long term global trends, population is increasing, living standards are increasing therefore industrial demand for silver goes up. Combine that with potential increasing extraction costs and a limited supply in the planet’s crust and over the years the price can only go one way.

[Pipers]

2 hours ago, phoenix said:

If you look at long term global trends, population is increasing, living standards are increasing therefore industrial demand for silver goes up. Combine that with potential increasing extraction costs and a limited supply in the planet’s crust and over the years the price can only go one way.

IMO mining costs by way of technology will be reduced in nickel / copper mines.

[Mildred]

On 23.3.2018 at 18:02, Lowlow said:

To me an "investment" is more of an active thing, it is a bit speculative, it means you're interacting with the world to try to create wealth not just trying to store value.  If you're making money in silver, you're not really creating wealth, you're pretty much hedging, or storing value.  I know the textbook definition would see that as an investment too, because it has the potential to make money, but you aren't really creating wealth in the cosmic sense .. you're not building a structure where none existed, creating a work of art, bringing people together so that their efforts become more than the sum of their efforts individually, etc, and to me that is more of what an "investment" is. 

I think of a real investment from the perspective of a capitalist, from the perspective of using money to create more than was there, and you really aren't doing that when you buy silver and gold

LL, interesting thoughts indeed

PM investors aren't creating any value. From a capitalistic point of view, they are kind of economical parasites.

I think this is the line of thought they will hit the "hoarders" with, after the shortage will kick in. You can read it already here and there on MSM. I keep thinking how the govs will react to the shortage, particularly of silver. They won't confiscate. Too complicated. More probable, they'll establish it as illegal to sell to someone other than allowed buyers.

Anyway, how can one legitimate, capitalistically speaking, us? Let's see... I'm not sure, but how about this: from a capitalistic point of view, there is value in correcting systemic imperfections, like, e.g., in price discovering.

When things are wrong priced, it is capitalistic valuable to correct it.

That is what hoarders do

True price discovery prompts market efficiency

The capitalistic valuable social role of PM hoarders consists in contributing into the true price discovery of PMs

Yes? 

 

 

[Mildred]

On 22.3.2018 at 02:12, sovereignsteve said:

However, what about silver?

It’s still regarded as “money”...
 

Thanks Steve!

I love you too

To write money without the "s would have been too much of a concession, isn't it   

[Mildred]

On 22.3.2018 at 02:12, sovereignsteve said:

However, what about silver?
It’s not needed as currency. It’s still regarded as “money”, but for how long?
It’s not really needed as a store of value, gold does that pretty well on its own.
The general population couldn’t care less about it; in fact 99.99% don’t have a clue what its value is.
How can something be useful as money if very few people actually regard it as such and know its value?
It’s clear to me that its status as a store of value is on the decline. To continue to be it needs everyone to accept it as such. There’s no point having loads of it if very few people want to buy it off you when you want to sell.

It is mainly produced as a bi product of other metal mining so there will always be enough to satisfy industrial demand. If not, the price will go up and if it rises too much, they will try to find alternatives.

While I like your positivistic approach (money is what is accepted as such here and now, a store of value is what is contemplated as such here and now), you forget that things change, or at least you forget that for PM investors things change.

There is something wrong in this exchange because the other side keep saying Things will change, therefore silver... and you contradict with No, things are so now, therefore silver... then they say Yes, but things will change, therefore silver... and you answer Yes, but things are so now, therefore silver... Kind of silly, isn't it

The fact that you buy silver "just in case" make me think that between you and your counterpart there isn't all that divergence that you try to highlight all the way

[Silverclown]

Silver is shiny!

[sovereignsteve]

10 minutes ago, Mildred said:

While I like your positivistic approach (money is what is accepted as such here and now, a store of value is what is contemplated as such here and now), you forget that things change, or at least you forget that for PM investors things change.

There is something wrong in this exchange because the other side keep saying Things will change, therefore silver... and you contradict with No, things are so now, therefore silver... then they say Yes, but things will change, therefore silver... and you answer Yes, but things are so now, therefore silver... Kind of silly, isn't it

The fact that you buy silver "just in case" make me think that between you and your counterpart there isn't all that divergence that you try to highlight all the way

I basically don't have a clue what the situation is now and how it will be in the future.

I just get fed up with hearing all the "silver is the future" talk, reference to the moon etc and all this constant harping on about the past when it's clear to see that the status of silver has changed dramatically in the past 100 years or so and who knows where it will go in the future.

I like to stir things up and challenge these preconceived ideas wherever I see them. They may well be right but equally they may not.

[sixgun]

55 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

I basically don't have a clue what the situation is now and how it will be in the future.

I just get fed up with hearing all the "silver is the future" talk, reference to the moon etc and all this constant harping on about the past when it's clear to see that the status of silver has changed dramatically in the past 100 years or so and who knows where it will go in the future.

I like to stir things up and challenge these preconceived ideas wherever I see them. They may well be right but equally they may not.

i fully understand you being fed up with the great noise about silver and it is the future. This is b/c those banging on were just making noise, they recognised the massive price suppression but had no real idea how that might change. Some imagined we would return to precious metals as circulating coins. This is ludicrous and will never happen outside of a bomb crater and some Mad Max society. In these cases a bag of sugar is likely more valuable. There is a massive future for silver but not in circulating coins as a barter currency but as backing for 21st century cryptocurrencies.

A currency is a token of exchange. It can pebbles, sea shells, gold and silver coins or pieces of paper with the Queen's head on. It is a means of exchange. For this reason you are right to question gold and silver being currencies. Well they are because they are used as such by the financial markets, they are used by the international banks. The Bank of International Settlements has a dedicated trading desk for both metals. They deal in the metals as currencies in their task to manage all the major currencies. They are traded against the fiat currencies in the markets. This is the 'cash price' the spot price. It is the price against cash, where gold and silver are cash. This you could say is the relic of the past when fiat currency was backed by metals in gold and silver standards, where there were fixed rates of exchange between metals and national currencies. This still continues and gold and silver are still currencies b/c the markets recognise them as tokens of exchange even if this stop happening for the man in the street. The GSR is the exchange rate between gold and silver, as currencies. 

Money differs from pure currencies in that it is a store of value. Fiat currencies are short term money - they store value in the short term but we know as the banks push out more and more paper and digits there is inflation and value is lost.

The future is asset backed cryptocurrencies. When the US dollar collapses this will blow a massive hole in confidence in Western currencies. The Russians and China are piling up gold and silver to back their currencies - gold will be the main backer of these currencies. This is why the pair of them have a collective store of something like 70 000 tonnes of gold. They will be the kings of the world. There will be metal backed trade notes when the USD implodes - if you have metal we can do business but if you don't have something tangible get lost. Gold and silver cryptos will and are appearing. These are the future. Fully backed, fully audited currency. These can be trusted. Trade is dependent on confidence. A friend of mine did many $millions of trade in an import and export business. In 2008 confidence was lost and no-one would do business. He just had to stop trading. There was no longer secure credit and trading for him ended. This will happen as the fiat currencies come down and the cure is gold and silver backed cryptos. These can be transferred across the world in seconds - a bag of coins or bars cannot. This is why i keep banging on about Kinesis b/c this fits the bill. The future of silver as money through the medium of cryptocurrencies is massive. The upside is huge. It is not wishful thinking, it is inevitable and much nearer than most think except in their dreams.

[Oldun]

 

[Oldun]

On 24/03/2018 at 02:53, vand said:

1-2 months.

But it was over 90 most of the period between Oct 1990 - March 1993

High readings can go on for a while. Extreme reading tend to peak for only 1-2 months. Right now we are just about touching a high reading. Those who are getting disenfranchised at 80:1 have very little chance of seeing this all the way through. The market is designed to flush out all but the strongest holders and take as few people with it as possible; for that is the way it MUST be.

I'm with @sovereignsteve on this one. Not a clue....so to balance out the previous fun video, here is this....

 

[KDave]

6 hours ago, Mildred said:

PM investors aren't creating any value. From a capitalistic point of view, they are kind of economical parasites.

Yes? 

 

 

Anyone who buys anything to sell on can be seen as a parasite if you want to look at it like that. Are shop keepers creating value? Car salesman? Banks? 

Precious metals are a good medium to save ones capital, much as saving your earnings in currency. You would not call a saver a parasite. They earned or have claim on the capital and want to preserve it. Cash is the equivalent of being robbed by parasitical inflation. Precious metals are protected from the thievery of inflation (for the most part) and function as long term stores of value far better than currency which has a poor history. 

 

[whitesands1]

35 minutes ago, KDave said:

Anyone who buys anything to sell on can be seen as a parasite if you want to look at it like that. Are shop keepers creating value? Car salesman? Banks? 

Precious metals are a good medium to save ones capital, much as saving your earnings in currency. You would not call a saver a parasite. They earned or have claim on the capital and want to preserve it. Cash is the equivalent of being robbed by parasitical inflation. Precious metals are protected from the thievery of inflation (for the most part) and function as long term stores of value far better than currency which has a poor history. 

 

We all have different skills and mindsets and I agree "Parasite" is a very negative word.  We are all here, in this world, to get on together and live off each other.  

As for Silver it is really good to have a depth of discussion about it, again.  I think it is lovely in all forms; coins we love, antique items with great craftsmanship, medical uses, saving lives and industrial uses, creating economic growth.

From my experience on the Silver Forum, I'd say that we too are all here to get on, we love silver and every once in a while there is a huge spike in the price that give the possibility of an opportunity to strike it rich!

As you say @KDave there is an opportunity to store value and while there are often disappointments with the performance of silver isn't it great fun in the meantime?

It can be a very cheap pastime if you think that what you buy always has some residual value.

An awesome hobby in the company of some very fine fellow Forum members.

And in the meantime we can always dream;  "this time next year........."

[Oldun]

Silver is connected to the moon some say, and like a full moon, happens once a month or 3% of the time......think about that....how long is 3% of your lifetime.....not long........and what part of the cycle are you in ? If you get lucky, fear of inflation drives the price of silver up. Stagflation.....stays where it is....fear of deflation....drops

[Pipers]

When labour produces something, in this instance a mine produces silver it is then sent to the refinery, then onto the mint, then onto the retailer and onto the customer.  All of this produces something and all because the end product the coin or bar is what the customer wanted. I truly believe the process of mining to the customer represents  the value of the true wealth of the coin or bar.  If  people decide that they want the silver at a higher price for what ever reason then so be it the price goes up or people decide they do not want silver for what ever reason then so be it the price goes down.

If people really think silver is cheap i would recommend they buy for the long term.  Or you could take a chance and see if it goes lower but it may go higher who knows. Or hold.   Or you could cut your losses and get out.  You decide.        

    

  

[ilovesilverireallydo]

Relevant to this thread https://www.wsj.com/articles/sliding-silver-sends-scary-signal-1521986400

[Pipers]

3 hours ago, ilovesilverireallydo said:

Relevant to this thread https://www.wsj.com/articles/sliding-silver-sends-scary-signal-1521986400

Can you copy and paste please, most here do not sub to the wall street Journal

[ilovesilverireallydo]

8 minutes ago, Pipers said:

Can you copy and paste please, most here do not sub to the wall street Journal

I dont either - if you click the paywall thing to close you should be able to read it.   appears you can only get that free on mobile. let me see if I can copy and paste

[ilovesilverireallydo]

[Silverclown]

This article is telling me to buy more silver because no one wants it at the moment...

but on the other if you want to flip silver over the next couple of years your going to have a harder time in doing it on a large scale...