Warren Buffet move

[vand]

On 24/02/2018 at 22:20, MrGeorge said:

What do you mean he cant find a company to invest in, do you even look at his company’s stocks he releases his holdings ever quarter and bought a ? load of stocks recently 

 

He's increased his cash position by 35% to $116bn, so is a net seller of stocks. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-26/warren-buffett-isnt-buying-why-should-anyone-else

[sixgun]

1 hour ago, MrGeorge said:

Yes i know he sold alot more stocks than he bought, it clearly shows that in the photo i posted. My point was hes still finding companies to invest in.

Buffet is telling those who are listening that stocks are overvalued. He is selling stock as it is overvalued but cannot find stock which represent value so he is in cash. He will sit on his hands and then move. He is stock picking - you are buying the index. You are attempting to justify what you are doing by what Buffet is doing except Buffet is doing something quite different.

[vand]

There is nothing at all inconsistent in what Buffett says:

• Investing is all about RISK VS REWARD. The Reward is higher future wealth in exchange for present consumption. The Risk is that that desired outcome might not materialise. Nobody has a crystal ball, all investments carry some degree of risk.
• Companies are the wealth-generating engine of capitalism and therefore have the most capacity for growth
• Monthly cost-averaging is a risk-free mechanical method of outperforming the market over the long term
• Future returns are a function of current price. You cannot buy yesterday's growth. The more expensive a market at any given point the lower its returns will be going forward over an infinite time horizon.
• There are times when the market gets expensive such that the risk/reward on offer is unacceptable. If you cannot fund anything worth buying then do not go fully invested and wait for better opportunities. Nobody is holding a gun to your head and forcing you to buy stocks. 

 

The line trotted out "I don't care about current valuations because I'm buying for the long term" is a very poor reason to buy and is usually the sort of response we see when uninformed investors jump in near major market peaks.

[Mildred]

On 25. Februar 2018 at 20:08, sixgun said:

i have bought metal on the ABX Metaldesk platform and i would say there is not a lot of volume. Well not in the little bars i was buying. From what i hear the big buys are not on any platform or at any quoted price. I get the impression the ABX has not created the traction that was hoped.

I think the hard launch was something waiting to happen when there was something else happening. If BullionCoin had happened the hard launch would have happened sooner. i notice BullionCoin is still not flying despite the Whitepaper last September. What in reality does a hard launch really mean? - is this a publicity angle? - i think probably so.

Yes - the large order was thrown back at them. To be honest a bit naive to expect it would be otherwise.

That 250 t order which according to Maguire the lmba refused to deliver

Eric Sprott has waited for years for "that last bar which doesn't get delivered". He meant, once only one gold or silver bar doesn't get delivered, that will be the proof of the shortage in the physical market, trigging a buyer's run for physical.

Now we have the lmba refusing to deliver, and "the market" doesn't care 

 

If abx cannot get the physical from the lmba, the only other option seems to me to get it directly from the producers (miners and refineries).

I remember some years ago bullion banks making long term contracts with miners (specifically HBSC from polish KGHM) in order to secure their silver production, instead of acquiring it on the spot and futures market.

There is this agreement between Samsung and Avino Silver

First Majestic was asked by some big company to sell them their silver production

Other than from the producers, I cannot see how abx can secure the metal backing kinesis

Kinesis launch being postponed because they cannot find the metal to back it up? 

 

 

 

[sixgun]

14 minutes ago, Mildred said:

That 250 t order which according to Maguire the lmba refused to deliver

There was no refusal to deliver. There was a refusal to do business.

 

14 minutes ago, Mildred said:

If abx cannot get the physical from the lmba, the only other option seems to me to get it directly from the producers (miners and refineries).

There are other options - you don't offer to buy 250 tonnes - maybe you offer to buy a few grams x a few million orders.

 

14 minutes ago, Mildred said:

Kinesis launch being postponed because they cannot find the metal to back it up?

There is no postponement - they are moving ahead - i have bought Kinesis Velocity Tokens today.

You might find this of interest

http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/kinesis.02.28.18.mp3

[Mildred]

Thanks for the clarification about the distinction refusing to do business / refusing to deliver 6gun,

that distinction makes sense on a legal order, but in practice? Why should the lmba refuse to do business if they have the metal? My point, why has the market not interpreted the lmba refusal to do business as a sign that they don't have the metal?

 

"There is no postponement - they are moving ahead - i have bought Kinesis Velocity Tokens today."

Yes, I know. I wasn't talking about there being a postponement of the current kinesis process, I know they are moving ahead. I was just speculating, for discussion sake, about the possibility of a postponement of the  kinesis trading start, on the 1st october, because of issues about sourcing the metal

 

Thanks for the link!

[sixgun]

55 minutes ago, Mildred said:

Why should the lmba refuse to do business if they have the metal?

Because they don't have the metal for immediate delivery.

Thousands of tonnes of paper gold flies back and forth. It gives the impression there must be 1000's of tonnes available. There isn't. A order of 250 tonnes for immediate delivery would bring the house down.

55 minutes ago, Mildred said:

My point, why has the market not interpreted the lmba refusal to do business as a sign that they don't have the metal?

The physical market knows they don't have the metal. The move by the ABX was somewhat naive. i wonder if they expected a refusal to do business but just wanted to test the water. There have been actual defaults - there was one by Deutsche Bank a while back. China for example could go 100k COMEX gold contract long, fund the whole position and then say cough up. No we aren't going away. They aren't going to do this. They just want the gold and they take it bit by bit.

The paper side of the market is blind. They believe Bloomberg and CNBC. They are totally disconnected.

55 minutes ago, Mildred said:

 I was just speculating, for discussion sake, about the possibility of a postponement of the  kinesis trading start, on the 1st october, because of issues about sourcing the metal.

The metal can be got but not in one shipment, in one order. They will start buying and keep buying. These people strike me they are intent on breaking the paper market. The way the Kinesis currency works it will draw in much of the gold in the world, break the paper market and send price a long way higher.

Say i buy 1kg of gold on the ABX. I create Kinesis currency - at the click of a mouse. I sell the 1000 coins. i so sell my gold to the coin buyers. i am entitled to a share of the transaction fee when these coins change hand in future. So there is an incentive for me to buy more gold and make more coins. i whip round 5 times a month. This is suggested so it must be possible. i am hoping more often. But anyway 5 cycles a month is 60 cycles a year. That is 60kg of gold drawn in. As long as there is a demand for the coins i will keep going. So a minter with capital to get in for 1kg if they work at it will draw in 60kg. Now imagine someone buying a tonne, then imagine someone buying 10 tonnes. It is attacking the gold cartel like they have never been attacked before. i worry Kinesis will be too successful.

[matrawr]

Maybe we can ask the CIA if they know how much silver is under the ocean floor?  In all honesty unless you have a gigantic metal detector or are crazy enough to go undergound for an extended period of time to let me know how much silver is buried then no one is going to find out the true value of silver, gold or any other material we can only value something on what has been discovered so far. I reckon that if something like the miners being unable to find the materials needed then maybe only then will we get close to finding out the true value of it.

[matrawr]

Maybe this'll do for now.

https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2018/mcs2018.pdf

[Mildred]

The physical market knows the lmba doesn't have the metal. Yes.

Ted Butler's assumption, the industrials creating a shortage after they start storing silver, knowing that the lmba doesn't have any stocks left.

I wonder, why the industrial producers, and I'm thinking specifically about silver, why don't they start accumulating the metal, given that they know as well how the physical market looks like

 

[sixgun]

45 minutes ago, Mildred said:

The physical market knows the lmba doesn't have the metal. Yes.

Ted Butler's assumption, the industrials creating a shortage after they start storing silver, knowing that the lmba doesn't have any stocks left.

I wonder, why the industrial producers, and I'm thinking specifically about silver, why don't they start accumulating the metal, given that they know as well how the physical market looks like

Some manufacturers will deal directly with miners. Some are doing this already. i think First Majestic refused.

It is not in the interests of the manufacturers to rock the boat. Could it be that the likes of Samsung and Apple are promised the silver - you will get your silver, now don't do anything stupid. If there was a panic, Apple for example could buy all the silver in the world. It is a good way to kill the competition. Then the government would come in as it would 'threaten national security'.

i just keep buying silver whilst it is almost being given away. At some point the balloon will go up and i will have made my preparations.

[Lowlow]

19 minutes ago, sixgun said:

i just keep buying silver whilst it is almost being given away. At some point the balloon will go up and i will have made my preparations.

This.

Just be glad the silver is there, that it's relatively inexpensive, and that you can buy as much of it as you want!

[Lowlow]

Just now, Lowlow said:

This.

Just be glad the silver is there, that it's relatively inexpensive, and that you can buy as much of it as you want!

... it wasn't like that throughout most of human history!

It wasn't that long ago, even in the United States, that owning gold was ILLEGAL.