coming dip

[aztecstargazer]

I have come to get these "gut feelings" when a price trend is about to reverse. It is partly due to technical analysis and identifying support and resistance levels. Couple this with the almost rhythmic cycle of silvers price change, and we can identify this as a key price level. This is particularly apparent in the 1 year price charts.

Silver also has a bizarre phenomenon which sees radical price drops and gradual price gains. I know there is a lot of talk about manipulation, which is likely true, but emotion is the enemy of investing. So this time in the cycle, I have chosen to liquidate about 10% of my position into an opportunity fund. I've also learned that timing is critical to maximizing returns. I used to follow the dollar-cost-averaging philosophy. This is a good strategy in your early stages of acquiring precious metals. But once you have a grasp on the market, it is prudent to start managing your risk and identifying opportunity. 

I'm looking to 16$/oz as the support level for this next cycle. Of course the price never seems to move sideways, so it is critical to watch and identify when the cycle reverse to the upside again.

[Shinus73]

Good luck to you, but after several years of worrying about such things, I came to the conclusion that trying to time the precious metals markets is a waste of nervous energy. Now I just buy what I fancy when I have spare cash, add it to the spreadsheet and forget about it.

[KDave]

There is usually a dip shortly after I make a large purchase, its quite amazing. 

[BackyardBullion]

28 minutes ago, KDave said:

There is usually a dip shortly after I make a large purchase, its quite amazing. 

Did you buy something this week?

[richatthecroft]

2 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

Did you buy something this week?

Let me know when your buying next, I'll wait for the dip!  I bought my first 1oz Gold coin earlier this week...

[swAgger]

30 minutes ago, KDave said:

There is usually a dip shortly after I make a large purchase, its quite amazing. 

Oh yes, goes without saying. And i find it dips by enough that would have almost covered the shipping cost on the whole order.

[swAgger]

7 minutes ago, richatthecroft said:

Let me know when your buying next, I'll wait for the dip!  I bought my first 1oz Gold coin earlier this week...

aha! Many have tried that system and incredibly it just won't work. When you do that, then after YOU have bought it'll dip yet again after you.

[Alex]

It might sound crazy but I expect a big dip this year

[kimchi]

I am buying what I can when I can afford, certainly not counting on a dip (quite the opposite).

[C12]

I'm also starting to see the potential for a dip and prolonged sideways action. The failure of silver to do anything during the recent bear market in USD is a concern. It's probably the most unloved physical asset on the planet. 

I also see the gold silver ratio heading up to  unseen levels, possibly over 100 or even 120. 

I'm not concerned about my stash at all and will just keep stacking which is a good thing as it was always more of a retirement investment. 

Although, if you've got over 1,000 coins it does become a bit of arse to store and look after. 

 

[KDave]

56 minutes ago, Alex said:

It might sound crazy but I expect a big dip this year

I would prefer this scenario. I am not seeing much on PM's being down this year though; commentary is pretty bullish on balance. My favourite prediction was a run up initially to $1450 gold, then a 2007 style event dragging PM's down along with it, lower targets for gold back in the 3 digits ($), before final take off in the metals to those mad prices peter schiff used to joke about. Fingers crossed!  

[PansPurse]

When's the group order deadline again @BackyardBullion 

[C12]

15 minutes ago, KDave said:

I would prefer this scenario. I am not seeing much on PM's being down this year though; commentary is pretty bullish on balance. My favourite prediction was a run up initially to $1450 gold, then a 2007 style event dragging PM's down along with it, lower targets for gold back in the 3 digits ($), before final take off in the metals to those mad prices peter schiff used to joke about. Fingers crossed!  

I would probably agree. Silver and gold will get hit hard when the crash comes and it might be much more prolonged than 2008 dip. 

Technically gold looks pretty favourable. Although if you zoom out to a 30+ year chart it might suggest we've not seen the end of the bear market. 

Silver is teetering on the edge of a 15 year uptrend line going back to 2003. A failure here could open the doors to prices not seen since the 90's and we may need to hold out until the next commodity cycle picks up. 

The annoying thing about silver is that it never seems to hold value at a higher baseline level. After the quick blow offs, it just gravitates towards zero and flatlines. 

[PansPurse]

2 minutes ago, C12 said:

I would probably agree. Silver and gold will get hit hard when the crash comes and it might be much more prolonged than 2008 dip. 

Technically gold looks pretty favourable. Although if you zoom out to a 30 year chart it might suggest we've not seen the end of the bear market. 

Silver is teetering on the edge of a 15 year uptrend line going back to 2003. A failure here could open the doors to prices not seen since the 90's and we may need to hold out until the next commodity cycle pics up. 

I'm not sure these comparisons are entirely fair, I mean there's been nearly two decades of inflation since the nineties, so the underlying cost of mining/purifying will have risen too

[Roy]

3 minutes ago, C12 said:

A failure here could open the doors to prices not seen since the 90's and we may need to hold out until the next commodity cycle pics up. 

C'mon guys...I'm an old man. Give me some time frames!  

[Alex]

1 minute ago, KDave said:

I would prefer this scenario. I am not seeing much on PM's being down this year though; commentary is pretty bullish on balance. My favourite prediction was a run up initially to $1450 gold, then a 2007 style event dragging PM's down along with it, lower targets for gold back in the 3 digits ($), before final take off in the metals to those mad prices peter schiff used to joke about. Fingers crossed!  

I don`t think it will touch 3 digits ($) but might be near to that.I think the global growth have peaked.What goes up must come down.

[C12]

1 minute ago, Roy said:

C'mon guys...I'm an old man. Give me some time frames!  

If you google '30 year commodity cycle' and look at the 200 year history. It's like clockwork. The next commodity cycle seems to be in the mid to late 2030's. 

[Roy]

Oh bugger 

[KDave]

2030's! I was thinking more in a couple of years it should be on its way. Hopefully we have a boring 2018 so there is more time for stacking. Also I want one of those caps that says 'DOW 30,000' before it goes tits up.  

[C12]

Just now, KDave said:

2030's! I was thinking more in a couple of years it should be on its way. Hopefully we have a boring 2018 so there is more time for stacking. Also I want one of those caps that says 'DOW 30,000' before it goes tits up.  

The worst case scenario is that we go into a prolonged decade long deflation where the governments and central banks are completely helpless to do anything about it.

There's no investment that can save anyone from this and it's a scary thought. PM's a great hedge against various things but nowhere near ideal in this scenario. 

I think you do need PM's to hedge against the unknown outcome, but also a decent amount of cash in the safest possible place. 

[vand]

I agree that a pullback is more likely than not, but if you want to hedge your holdings then there are far better ways to do it than selling part of your stack.

I will not be selling my physical any time soon, but I have lightened up on my trading positions.

Also, do not be surprised when the market suddenly does the unexpected and leaves the current price range behind for good. It did this in the last bull run when it went through $20 after several attempts. Anyone selling at $20 thinking there would be another pullback would have missed the blowoff move to $50. So on this basis, its a perfectly valid argument to just hold firm while you believe that we are in a bull market.

[BackyardBullion]

24 minutes ago, PansPurse said:

When's the group order deadline again @BackyardBullion 

This Sunday night but feel free to lock a price with me tomorrow if you want - I have a clear day so I can devote time to it!

[C12]

6 minutes ago, vand said:

Also, do not be surprised when the market suddenly does the unexpected and leaves the current price range behind for good. It did this in the last bull run when it went through $20 after several attempts. Anyone selling at $20 thinking there would be another pullback would have missed the blowoff move to $50. So on this basis, its a perfectly valid argument to just hold firm while you believe that we are in a bull market.

No reason to be selling PM's here, especially silver. What's the worst thing silver can do from here? possibly capitulate at $6 and go sideways for more years? We've already retraced a huge amount of the blow off in 2011. 

The long term upside however is ridiculous, plus you're hedged against inflation and various other risks. It might need a whole load of patience but nobody knows when the next bull move will kick off. 

 

[Alex]

3 minutes ago, vand said:

I agree that a pullback is more likely than not, but if you want to hedge your holdings then there are far better ways to do it than selling part of your stack.

I will not be selling my physical any time soon, but I have lightened up on my trading positions.

Also, do not be surprised when the market suddenly does the unexpected and leaves the current price range behind for good. It did this in the last bull run when it went through $20 after several attempts. Anyone selling at $20 thinking there would be another pullback would have missed the blowoff move to $50. So on this basis, its a perfectly valid argument to just hold firm while you believe that we are in a bull market.

Yes,I expect a bearish trend this year followed by a great bull run after.The next recession might be the worst and only a piece of land where you can grow vegetables and chickens might save you.

[PansPurse]

18 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

This Sunday night but feel free to lock a price with me tomorrow if you want - I have a clear day so I can devote time to it!

Thanks, I appreciate it.

Might stick it out until Saturday, see if it goes any lower