Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning

[vand]

The chart should make for very pleasing viewing for commodities bulls.

We have a beautiful 2 year base and now looking very good for completing that phase by taking out the neckline around 200 and beginning the advancing phase and officially a new bull market.

Depending on how accurately you draw the support/resistance lines (or how hard you squint) it could be argued that we have already broken through.

 

[vand]

Long term ratio of CRB to stocks:

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24SPX&p=W&st=1957-01-01&id=p62573801128

 

Once in a generation opportunity?

 

[Pipers]

@vand

You, me and a few others have been telling people on here for ages that commodities were a good investment.  Its been the same people who have been investing in them.   The commodities chart does look like its now into a bull phase, but it may be against the $, I have been doing some of my own tables against the £ and its still very good.     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[vand]

On 25/01/2018 at 12:00, Pipers said:

@vand

You, me and a few others have been telling people on here for ages that commodities were a good investment.  Its been the same people who have been investing in them.   The commodities chart does look like its now into a bull phase, but it may be against the $, I have been doing some of my own tables against the £ and its still very good.     

 

Well TBF, baring a few brief rallies they have on the whole, been a terrible investment since 1980 compared to stocks

But that's what makes them the ultimate contrarian play. Just as stocks where a fantastic buy in 1980 when gold hit $800 and silver $45. 

Commodities will never fall to zero.. The ratio cannot go to zero. Everything works in cycles, and I'm really hoping that we are the start of a new cycle that will work the other way.

 

[C12]

12 hours ago, vand said:

Well TBF, baring a few brief rallies they have on the whole, been a terrible investment since 1980 compared to stocks

But that's what makes them the ultimate contrarian play. Just as stocks where a fantastic buy in 1980 when gold hit $800 and silver $45. 

Commodities will never fall to zero.. The ratio cannot go to zero. Everything works in cycles, and I'm really hoping that we are the start of a new cycle that will work the other way.

 

I'm also baffled that we've seen two (arguably three) major bubbles in stocks in the last 20 years where commodities have seriously under performed, apart from a spike across each of the sectors.

At some point this is going to swing the other way massively. I'm convinced this will be the last stock bubble in real terms in our lifetime. The next commodity boom will lift off during the next reflationary period just as confidence is lost in fiat and sovereign debt. 

This might be many years down the road I think. 

[KDave]

1 hour ago, C12 said:

This might be many years down the road I think. 

I hope so, I have a gold and silver shopping list as long as my arm and could use some more time 

[HawkHybrid]

the dollar has already started showing signs of weakening.

I think commodities could do well in the next few years.

 

HH

[Bumble]

I have heard several commentators recently say that soft commodities and particularly grains are looking bullish. Grains have certainly fallen a lot in recent years, but I don't know enough about them to understand in detail what drives the price. With the metals, many analysts are bullish about battery metals (nickel, cobalt, lithium) and copper, because these will be needed in much greater quantity if we are to have more electric cars and more sources of renewable energy. A few analysts are also bullish about uranium, on the basis that for many years its price has been below the cost of production and this is unsustainable. China and Japan are still committed to nuclear energy, but it is more difficult to predict the appetite for it in the west.

[vand]

On 29/01/2018 at 22:17, C12 said:

At some point this is going to swing the other way massively. I'm convinced this will be the last stock bubble in real terms in our lifetime. The next commodity boom will lift off during the next reflationary period just as confidence is lost in fiat and sovereign debt. 

This might be many years down the road I think. 

 

You can never totally write off the stock market, but I do think there needs to be a period where stocks massively underperform for a generation to readdress the (very) long term equilibrium. Stocks, and paper assets in general, have been the main benefactor of 50 years of fiat money and the bond megabubble. I don't know if we're still approaching the top, at the top or just past the top, but I am pretty sure that we are far closer to the end of this period in monetary history than we are to the start of it.

[vand]

Oil is breaking out. The inflation genie is out of the bottle.

[kimchi]

Oh blimey and I have been busy cashing in all the shares I can this week...

For me/us though better safe than sorry and I think (?) better to get out now than risk losing an awful lot, as I'm not one with an eye for the markets.

[augur]

27 minutes ago, vand said:

Oil is breaking out. The inflation genie is out of the bottle.

Is this to be seen in line with the announcement of the Petro-Yuan in October and the beginning uncoupling of the Petro-Dollar?

[sixgun]

On 4/11/2018 at 18:18, augur said:

Is this to be seen in line with the announcement of the Petro-Yuan in October and the beginning uncoupling of the Petro-Dollar?

No - this is to do with the posturing of Trump tweeting that the Russians better get ready for smart missiles. There is debate whether Trump actually made some of these recent tweets. Nevertheless it was sufficient to send oil up. War in the Middle East will always send the oil price up.

There is increasing evidence to support the view the alleged gassing event in Syria never happened. That it was a staged pantomime event by the White Helmets. Syria has now seized the area and Russia has investigated it. This has apparently shown there is no evidence of gas was ever used. Looking at the chaotic videos allegedly showing the 'victims' of the alleged gassing event does not actually show much to support the idea there was chlorine gas used. We see children being hosed down by helpers who have no protection. Chlorine would give rise to blistering burns, externally and to the mucous members/respiratory system. We have seen these White Helmet characters treating gassing victims using no protection and never suffering ill effects. In these circumstances it makes me think these were hoax events.

i see the UK is backing down and is now saying we need evidence the Assad government was involved. 'Mad dog' Mattis is saying the same. Trump is saying he didn't say exactly when these missiles would be launched. i expect Trump is playing to the audience of controlled media and neo-cons whilst something else is going on in the backroom. We saw threats of fire and fury against Rocket man in North Korea whilst all the time there were steps being taken which i expect will remove Deep State operatives from the peninsula and unite a divided country. We don't seem to be hearing anything from the controlled media about Korea - they don't want to draw attention to the fact what was a potential WWIII trigger point has disappeared and Trump was a party to this.

So as i said elsewhere on the forum - Assad was never going to have been behind a gassing of his own people - i will also say the Salisbury event was an intelligence disservice event and potentially nothing actually happened, certainly Russia was not behind it.

[augur]

 

 

12 minutes ago, sixgun said:

No - this is to do with the posturing of Trump tweeting that the Russians better get ready for smart missiles. There is debate whether Trump actually made some of these recent tweets. Nevertheless it was sufficient to send oil up. War in the Middle East will always send the oil price up.

There is increasing evidence to support the view the alleged gassing event in Syria never happened. i expect Trump is playing to the audience of controlled media and neo-cons whilst something else is going on in the backroom. We saw threats of fire and fury against Rocket man in North Korea whilst all the time there were steps being taken which i expect will remove Deep State operatives from the peninsula and unite a divided country. We don't seem to be hearing anything from the controlled media about Korea - they don't want to draw attention to the fact what was a potential WWIII trigger point has disappeared and Trump was a party to this.

No i don't mean the recent rise, I mean oil rising compared to US$ since July/October 2017.

North Korea is indeed a puzzling one. Weeks before the olympics we were at the brink of nuclear war, then suddenly the world was at peace. And I doubt it was the Olympic Spirit that calmed it down. 

[sixgun]

32 minutes ago, augur said:

No i don't mean the recent rise, I mean oil rising compared to US$ since July/October 2017.

North Korea is indeed a puzzling one. Weeks before the olympics we were at the brink of nuclear war, then suddenly the world was at peace. And I doubt it was the Olympic Spirit that calmed it down. 

Well the Petro-yuan has only just been launched so could not have been a factor in the rise in oil prices since mid 2017.

We know the US is producing fair amounts of shale oil and gas. We also know these are short lived affairs and expensive. There is large scale debt in the shale industry. There are lots of junk corporate bonds. Companies are losing hand over fist. It will go pop - shorting some of this stock and junk debt will be very profitable - i keep eyeing it up. Higher prices for oil helps keep the shale dream alive. That is not to say that the oil price is being pumped up, i mean would ever suggest prices are being managed? 

Back in the 1970's oil crisis we saw oil prices soar and there were 'shortages'. There were no actual shortages and the rise in the oil price was cooked up in Washington/London. A higher oil price got the Petro-Dollar off to a good start, it boosted the oil giants' profits (we are talking Anglo-American companies in the main) and made exploration of the North Sea viable.

So there is a track record of managing oil prices for corporate and political gain. Some people say the price of oil was managed down to hurt Russia. That it was managed down to bankrupt Venezuela so her oil industry could be bought for pennies on the dollar. Russia survived - she prospered and it strengthened the Sino-Russian alliance. Didn't work out very well for the usual suspects. Their days are numbered in my book. i see Venezuela has recently started selling the Petro - an oil backed 'cryptocurrency'. Needless to say that has gone down like a lead balloon with the Western criminal cartel. The world is changing rather quickly.

[Lowlow]

On 1/30/2018 at 20:46, Bumble said:

I have heard several commentators recently say that soft commodities and particularly grains are looking bullish. Grains have certainly fallen a lot in recent years, but I don't know enough about them to understand in detail what drives the price.

Another opportunity for me to champion the most basic of SHTF preps - wheat.  Wheat is inexpensive, you can literally get enough wheat to last a person for a year for about 250$us, and that wheat, properly stored, essentially never goes bad, so it is a one time purchase that you prepare, put aside, and hope you never need.  Nothing is so basic to human survival as air, food, and water.  Where you are you probably have access to air, and likely water, but food could be a problem if the world ever goes sideways.  It's an easy, basic prep, just buy some bags of wheat, and use instructions you can find just about anywhere to seal and store it for the future.  Yes, you would need a grain mill to make flour, but if the time ever came that you needed it, a grain mill would be the least of your problems, it's the grain that will be ahrd to find.  Besides, you can survive on wheat simply by boiling it and eating it as a porridge, you don't even have to mill it to survive.  Salt, sugar, honey, and wheat are just about the only food items (with some minor exceptions) that you can store indefinitely, so like precious metals and ammunition, wheat is a terrific long term prep that would see you through the darkest of times.

Reliance on stored wheat is a prep you hope you'll never, ever need.  It isn't a hurricane type of prep, it's a World War 3 zombie apocalypse type of prep.

[vand]

On 4/11/2018 at 17:18, augur said:

Is this to be seen in line with the announcement of the Petro-Yuan in October and the beginning uncoupling of the Petro-Dollar?

 

One of the truisms of markets is that it doesn't really matter what "event" you pin on a price action. It happened. And it would have got there with or without whatever the latest geopolitical headline the press want to write up their stories with. There are much larger forces at work that move markets that what we can see or comprehend. 

 

[vand]

The new commodities bull market is waking up.

We are still in a long basing period, but the 2-year CRB chart looks awesome now. 

There will be very good returns in the next decade for those who have been buying at these generational lows

[Lowlow]

2 hours ago, vand said:

The new commodities bull market is waking up.

We are still in a long basing period, but the 2-year CRB chart looks awesome now. 

There will be very good returns in the next decade for those who have been buying at these generational lows

Gentleman's wager, say ... bragging rights ?

It all feels like 2006 and 2007 to me, so I'll go with rising commodity prices right up until the equity indices go south for winter, which I think is coming up in the next two years, and I think it might actually be late summer and into autumn this year.  How about if you get 22$us/oz silver before I get 12$us/oz silver, you win.   You might win it, because I think we might get a spike in prices before I get my 12$us/oz, so maybe you can be generous and call it a tie if you get your 22$us/oz and my 12$us/oz comes along 6 months later.

[vand]

4 minutes ago, Lowlow said:

Gentleman's wager, say ... bragging rights ?

It all feels like 2006 and 2007 to me, so I'll go with rising commodity prices right up until the equity indices go south for winter, which I think is coming up in the next two years, and I think it might actually be late summer and into autumn this year.  How about if you get 22$us/oz silver before I get 12$us/oz silver, you win.   You might win it, because I think we might get a spike in prices before I get my 12$us/oz, so maybe you can be generous and call it a tie if you get your 22$us/oz and my 12$us/oz comes along 6 months later.

gentlemen's wager, sure

your scenario is possible.. however I am focussing more on what I think is the best place to park your money for the next 20 years. I think we are seeing generational cheapness in commodities and they will re-evaluate many times over compared to stocks, bonds and real estate over the rest of my life..

[Lowlow]

2 minutes ago, vand said:

gentlemen's wager, sure

your scenario is possible.. however I am focussing more on what I think is the best place to park your money for the next 20 years. I think we are seeing generational cheapness in commodities and they will re-evaluate many times over compared to stocks, bonds and real estate over the rest of my life..

We're on the same page, I agree with your premise, your view on commodities vs. S&P, all of it, I just think we'll get one more chance at it when the indices tank.  I think we're in the last days of being able to get silver for any kind of bargain price.

[sixgun]

On 4/11/2018 at 17:49, vand said:

Oil is breaking out. The inflation genie is out of the bottle.

Presumably interest rates will be increased.  Real interest rates fall in the face of inflation - negative bond yields look even less appealing. So we get selling in the bond market and then the edifice comes down........ Time to board the gold and silver train but most of us are already on board. $12 silver very doubtful and only on a chart, not in the real world - there is too much demand building up and the physical market is starting to determine price. 

[vand]

15 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Presumably interest rates will be increased.  Real interest rates fall in the face of inflation - negative bond yields look even less appealing. So we get selling in the bond market and then the edifice comes down........ Time to board the gold and silver train but most of us are already on board. $12 silver very doubtful and only on a chart, not in the real world - there is too much demand building up and the physical market is starting to determine price. 

 

In reality they will still be running negative real rates. Do the central bankers have the balls to actually get ahead of the curve and raise rates to real positive rates? I highly doubt it, or if they do we will see 1981-style economic pain.

[Pipers]

Looking forward at commodities, 

I do not buy softs as i don't know enough about them to trade and when i did i lost.  

Metals,  I hold some nice companies, i bought when they were cheap.  If anyone is interested=  RioT, trades like waves if you wait you can buy at the bottom and hold though, Bhp with Rio has the big contracts in Chile for copper . 

Energy, I bought some oil companies in 2016 i am not sure how high oil will go now.  I have had a little nibble at Uranium  https://www.cameco.com/invest/strategy though this one is losing and they have closed mines in Canada. BHP again

 

[sixgun]

Softs are likely to take off - i keep banging on about global cooling and crop failure. The problem with many of these investments is you are dealing with stock that invests in futures so there is some slippage in the value of stock but certainly there is big gains in the future. Many prices very low in softs. 

i have stock in (FCX) Freeport-McMoRan - they are a strong copper play.

(URA) Global X Uranium - i think it bottomed at the end of March - double bottom of the chart.

@vand you are not alone.