Anyone else worried about Stock Market all time highs?

[BackyardBullion]

I have had a stocks and shares ISA and a fund and share account with Hargreaves Lansdown for quite a while now. I have attached screen shots of the % gain for the accounts history below. 

Both accounts are performing very well - the fund and share account (shorter of the two pictures) is a little more of a higher risk portfolio and has performed very well in the 3 years it has been open. The ISA is a little more conservative but at the same time has performed remarkably well over the last 6 years. 

But I cannot help wondering that this is the top of the bubble! I know it is not great to look at numbers but I login to my account every few weeks to i) check the money is still there  and ii) enjoy the "30+%" figures 

But as the new tax year is approaching and I would be looking to top up my stocks and shares ISA I just feel like it is the top of a huge cliff...

Anyone else feel this way!? I know it is impossible to tell and I really shouldnt be worried about this as this is part of my pension pot but still gets me thinking!

 

[Clens92]

Bloody hell.  I thought that I was diversified with a couple of funds and some stocks & shares

If you do feel that way, there is nothing wrong with taking some profits and buying back in if there's a fall.

I see all of your investments are set to accumulation - time in the market is especially important for this; it certainly beats 'timing' the market.

 

[BackyardBullion]

4 minutes ago, Clens92 said:

Bloody hell.  I thought that I was diversified with a couple of funds and some stocks & shares

If you do feel that way, there is nothing wrong with taking some profits and buying back in if there's a fall.

I see all of your investments are set to accumulation - time in the market is especially important for this; it certainly beats 'timing' the market.

 

Yes indeed - the plan was to have them for a very long time if possible. 

Also, I like to have many funds as you can tell 

[KDave]

Timing is difficult, I would argue impossible to judge the absolute top and bottom but you can get a rough idea. That said a long term investment (decades) should be held imo, trading will only go in your favour if you put time into it or get lucky.

I read this recently - being out of the market for the best 10 days of the S&P 500 between 1995 and 2014 turned a 9.85% annual return into 6.1% a big difference in total return compounded over such a time frame. I am sure there are figures that say missing the 10 worst days saved a lot of capital! Such figures do make one wonder. http://uk.businessinsider.com/cost-of-missing-10-best-days-in-sp-500-2015-3

[Elements]

I 100% agree with your dilemma. I shifted some out of my pension into cash right before the US election (big mistake in hindsight  ) but I’ve had a great run up since 2009 and avoided the bust of 2007/8. I’m an avid fan of monthly contributions and still add even at these lofty heights (how high will it go, nobody knows!) and if it falls I’ll be happy by getting more unit.

[Xander]

good grief BYB you are a busy man, I hope your ship comes in some day and you reap the fruits of all your hard work regarding your shares. 

Good strategy, spreading the risk.

[Bumble]

Commentators I follow disagree about the chances of a crash this year. On the positive side:

The economies of most developed countries are showing some signs of growth.
QE has inflated bond and stock prices, so traditional measures of value may be misleading.
Stocks are still being inflated by buy-backs: the recent change to corporation tax in the USA will continue this.
The capital markets are much more strongly influenced by the central banks than they used to be; there is a greater probability of intervention to prevent a fall.
Investors can still get dividend yields of 4% and more from some stocks, so they are not expensive unless the dividends are unsustainable.

On the negative side:

Bear markets tend to occur roughly every 7 to 10 years and we are coming up to 10 years since the last one.
By traditional measures, such as CAPE and Dow/gold, stocks are very expensive.
Governments, corporations and households have a serious debt problem and if the debt continues to grow it will drive up interest rates which will be negative for bonds, and possibly stocks as well.
The USA may start a new war, with Iran or North Korea, which might cause a panic sell-off.

[flim]

time to sell everything, but what to buy next ???

[Thelonerangershorse]

Well traditionally the advice used to be that in times of economic uncertainty, sell everything and buy gold.

 

[MancunianStacker]

8 hours ago, flim said:

time to sell everything, but what to buy next ???

Buy an asset class when it’s low and sell when it’s high. Everything is pretty high at the moment I.e stocks, property, and gold but of the three gold has got further to go and less likely to crash. So I’m all in there at present. 

Wait for a stock crash, stay in gold (as the sheep dive into gold and increase the price further), then move out of gold and into stocks when the stock prices start creeping up again.

Rinse and repeat! 

A very simplified version of how to build wealth. I’m also in BTL property but well outside of London and until supply starts to increase, property prices (outside London) aren’t going down IMHO.

 

[Panicbuying]

You should also put the numbers a bit in perspective to USDGBP exchange rates. Most of the main funds are trading in USD whereas you are invested in a GBP share class. Over the last 3 years USDGBP went from about 0.65 to 0.75 that’s a bit over 15% just because of currency.

[sixgun]

There is a lot of cash in the system. There should be inflation and this is coming out in the cryptos. Physical assets have been suppressed. Agricultural products are in many cases low - when there are an ever growing number of mouths to feed it makes no sense. Some metals are starting to pick up in price. Gold and silver are going to make big moves this year. The new gold and silver cryptos are going to be announced in less than 2 weeks. This is going to vacuum up so much physical it will make the cartel's head spin. It is designed to produce an income stream which will mean the unallocated and allocated gold and silver deposits will be liquidated to move into this new income generating 100% backed fully redeemable gold and silver investment product. This will expose the fact there is no gold in the vaults of these bullion deposits. There never was. The cartel will pull some desperate stunts, they will try to make things difficult, to smear, to generate FUD but they will be on the ropes and then KO'd. The clock is ticking and it is almost midnight. Unless you hold the gold you will be getting a cash settlement like it or not and then comes a price reset and those investors will be left on the side lines. I am 100% sure this is the outcome for 2018. The new currency is upon up but not the one they predicted in The Economist. 

[oliversw5]

I pulled all my funds from the stock market and went 100% PMs, you can still benefit from the market via spread betting and futures etc. Why hold the risk when you can pay a small premium for the upside?

[onlyroadtoheaven]

I'm in 1 oily and 2 Crypto related stocks. I don't understand cryptos, I don't like cryptos, and I don't believe in cryptos but there is clearly money to be made.

I do understand Gold/silver, I do like Gold and Silver, and I do believe in Gold and Silver, but I haven't done well out of them recently. 

My strategy going forward is to do the opposite of my better judgement and so far it is working. 

I feel/felt the same as you @BackyardBullion and thought I would go into safer shares and purchased Glaxo last year. Even that didn't work out. Usual economic rules don't seem to be working recently (the last decade) so I think a lot of luck is involved.

[vand]

Been looking at the current indexes with almost disbelief.

On RSI & MACD, Stocks are more overbought than at any time in the last 30 years. 

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F8%2F2018&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=true&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=true&chartStyleToggle=true&state=11

 

Surely we are approaching a major, multi-year, possibly multi-decade high.

[KDave]

18 hours ago, sixgun said:

 Agricultural products are in many cases low - when there are an ever growing number of mouths to feed it makes no sense. 

This is perhaps the most worrying thing of all. Food and everything along the chain of its production are going to get a lot more expensive, which we can imagine will have some upsetting consequences when things unravel.  

[MIP]

No one knows how long the party will last. But we know that some day it will be over.

In many countries the public debt is so high that ridiculous amounts of the budget are already devoted to interest payments only.

I think someone will have the brilliant idea and say "hey guys let's do a reset, look at this shiny cryto thing, ain't it cute?"

[C12]

What type of pension fund would you guys recommend in the event of a financial / banking crisis?

I'm limited to my options with my old and current work pensions. With Aviva and Standard Life, I only get a selection of funds available and unable to invest in inverse market positions when the time comes. 

I could move into a cash only fund (cash deposits with various banks) but not sure if this is any safer than government bonds. 

All the UK Gilt funds appear to be on longer side (ie 10 - 30 year bonds). 

[vand]

If there has been a defining characteristic of the Trump melt-up it has been the record low volatility as the market has zoomed to new highs - I think I read that since he won the election the SPX has not had to endure than 3% downside.  

I'm not getting too excited about the current selloff (in % terms it is a mere blip) but volatility cannot be kept this low indefinitely, and my feeling is that the genie has been kept in the bottle for too long. It has been a long term characteristic that bear markets have become more violent. this makes sense to me as there is so much more rampant speculation and leverage involved in the markets today. The next bear market should be cataclysmic if this trend continues.

[sixgun]

There is a lot of bad news coming out. Good time to crash the market.

I see Trump has allegedly warned about a false flag. Let's create a good day to bury bad news.

http://www.theneonnettle.com/news/3706-donald-trump-warns-of-false-flag-to-distract-from-fisa-memo-release

[vand]

There's a definite whiff of panic now, as the market is not behaving the same way it did before.. instead of going straight back up to new highs it is continuing to fall.

 

VIX has spiked massively.

[Elements]

Massive drop today on the DOW. This thread was a well timed cautionary notice. 

 

 

Edit: look at that v shape bounce within seconds. Must be the effect of computer driven trading influencing this kind of movement?

[sixgun]

39 minutes ago, Elements said:

Massive drop today on the DOW. This thread was a well timed cautionary notice.

Edit: look at that v shape bounce within seconds. Must be the effect of computer driven trading influencing this kind of movement?

And smacked down just as quick.

[C12]

Looks like the plunge protection team are out en force today. 

[BackyardBullion]

The same two accounts I showed at the start of this thread are now at 22% overall growth and 31.6% growth respectively. 

So since I started this thread I have lost about 3.5% in growth of these accounts - It just all seemed too good to be true - massive all time highs!