Thoughts on Bitcoin, PMs, Bubbles and fundamentals

[mr-dead]

Dont forget that bitcoin and other crypto's have been in development for several years now so most issues have now been addressed, there have been several historic roll backs and hard forks in bitcoin through its development to address bugs.

 

Regarding the demonisation being behind us + government only having an interest I disagree.  I think we will see several countries banning unregulated/non state issued crytpo over the next year or two.

If central banks dont need crypto currency when why are we on the verge of getting a  bank of england and Russian cryptoruble digital currency?

 

 

 

[PansPurse]

47 minutes ago, mr-dead said:

Dont forget that bitcoin and other crypto's have been in development for several years now so most issues have now been addressed, there have been several historic roll backs and hard forks in bitcoin through its development to address bugs.

...

If central banks dont need crypto currency when why are we on the verge of getting a  bank of england and Russian cryptoruble digital currency?

 

 

 

https://medium.com/institute-for-the-future/bitcoin-is-the-sewer-rat-of-currencies-b89819cdf036

Also, maybe it's the 90's cyberpunk fan in me, but I really love the thought of having "CryptoRubles" 

[tbone]

On 1/11/2018 at 15:34, mr-dead said:

I still believe Bitcoin was created by the powers  above as a beta test for going cashless in the future.

As soon as all scalability and security issues are resolved the central banks will slowly start rolling out their versions of crypto (we are just entering this stage now)

Final stage is when Bitcoin and other cryptos are demonised in a big propaganda campaign then banned globally due to being linked to terrorism, drug dealing and money laundering .

 

There is still good money to be made in the short term but I wouldn't bet the wife/house/mortgage on it long term.

Exactly what I've been saying too, its easier to get people to accept a 100% digital system if they think it came from "the people" who want to break free from "the banksters".  In reality, blockchain was probably first developed by the NSA decades ago.  Besides for the IRS warning people to pay their taxes on crypto gains, it seems to be embraced overall.  We now have a futures market, which is another step in legitimizing it, and we'll soon have ETFs and other ways people and institutions can pour money into it.  So the idea that its a peoples revolution against the establishment is bogus imo. 

If you want to see what real fear and hate from the establishment looks like, look no further than the silver market.  There's a long track record, maybe start with the Crime of 73.

[PansPurse]

Interesting, if somewhat one-sided column from the Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/15/should-i-invest-bitcoin-dont-mr-money-moustache

[Martlet]

21 minutes ago, PansPurse said:

Interesting, if somewhat one-sided column from the Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/15/should-i-invest-bitcoin-dont-mr-money-moustache

It's about right on money.  It is highly speculative.  I read Bitcointalk and most the people dont have a clue what they are really "investing" in, they are just looking for something that will go x10, x100.

[swAgger]

40 minutes ago, PansPurse said:

Interesting, if somewhat one-sided column from the Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/15/should-i-invest-bitcoin-dont-mr-money-moustache

Yes, thanks for that link, interesting read. As usually happens to me like when on youtube, it then took me down the rabbit hole of links to other articles. One-sided it was, yes. But on reflection - i have to think the sane side.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/11/kodak-companies-bitcoin-buzz-cryptocurrencies-share-price

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/21/us-soft-drinks-firm-changes-name-bitcoin-long-island-iced-tea-corp-shares-blockchain

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/10/bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies-will-come-to-a-bad-end-says-warren-buffett

And, oh dear. I've learned a little more about the absurdity of it all. Companies now have only to announce the most tenuous of steps into crypto to see shares surge. In many cases just a change of company name to hint at involvement, with no actual plan or intent, was enough for shares to rocket. Seriously, is the world losing its frigging mind?

It's all going to end very... very.... badly

 

[KDave]

11 minutes ago, swAgger said:

 

It's all going to end very... very.... badly

 

No man, it's the future. Bitcoin will hit 1 million a coin and then level off as the world adopts it for use in the new bankless utopia

[swAgger]

16 minutes ago, KDave said:

No man, it's the future. Bitcoin will hit 1 million a coin and then level off as the world adopts it for use in the new bankless utopia

Cheers! I needed that tonic

[Mariner1961]

32 minutes ago, swAgger said:

Yes, thanks for that link, interesting read. As usually happens to me like when on youtube, it then took me down the rabbit hole of links to other articles. One-sided it was, yes. But on reflection - i have to think the sane side.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/11/kodak-companies-bitcoin-buzz-cryptocurrencies-share-price

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/21/us-soft-drinks-firm-changes-name-bitcoin-long-island-iced-tea-corp-shares-blockchain

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/10/bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies-will-come-to-a-bad-end-says-warren-buffett

And, oh dear. I've learned a little more about the absurdity of it all. Companies now have only to announce the most tenuous of steps into crypto to see shares surge. In many cases just a change of company name to hint at involvement, with no actual plan or intent, was enough for shares to rocket. Seriously, is the world losing its frigging mind?

It's all going to end very... very.... badly

 

Totally agree although perhaps we're better off investing in as many companyname.blockchain.com domain's as we can. 

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Mariner1961 said:

Totally agree although perhaps we're better off investing in as many companyname.blockchain.com domain's as we can. 

KODAK share price spiked x4 overnight at the news they were doing a blockchain venture linked with protected picture imaging rights just this past week

Whilst some sceptical folk dont want anything to do with crytpo currency itself. the related technology's that ARE going to come to market utilising blockchain tech are going to change the world.

Just one off the top of my head "Wabi" - ensuring 100% integrity in the food chain from farm to plate or to ensure the authenticity of pharmaceutical medicine and tablets,  but this blockchain technology could also apply to 'anything' that is counterfeitable. 

Dont want anything to do with the crytpos? invest the companies that do

[PansPurse]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

KODAK share price spiked x4 overnight at the news they were doing a blockchain venture linked with protected picture imaging rights just this past week

Whilst some sceptical folk dont want anything to do with crytpo currency itself. the related technology's that ARE going to come to market utilising blockchain tech are going to change the world.

Just one off the top of my head "Wabi" - ensuring 100% integrity in the food chain from farm to plate or to ensure the authenticity of pharmaceutical medicine and tablets,  but this blockchain technology could also apply to 'anything' that is counterfeitable. 

Dont want anything to do with the crytpos? invest the companies that do

I'm kinda yes and no on this one. Yes I think blockchain in general has much more potential than bitcoin (and possibly cryptocurrency in general) but also it's become extremely zeitgeisty. I've seen articles advocating blockchain almost as a panacea for pretty much every industry, and in many cases I'm just not convinced that it offers serious benefits over existing technologies/approaches.

Put another way, Gartner put it pretty much at the peak of over-inflated expectations on their Hype Cycle last year:

[whitesands1]

If there was a hypeometer then this whole wardrobe of Emporer's New Clothes would surely be off the scale.

I don't understand any of the alphabet soup of terminology around this and I think that is the aim of the game; no-one wants to appear foolish so everyone goes with the flow.

A pyramid fit for the desperate money makers of the 21st. Century, just in my opinion.

 

[KDave]

Could not agree more. Block chain is a solution to the problem of keeping people honest in regards to ownership. Bitcoin is ownership of math algorithms and nothing else. The idea is useful. The execution, it looks like an experiment or proof of concept that has gathered steam and been sold on a good story. Ignorance, naivety and greed - pure uncontrolled, unregulated speculation gone mad. Wish I had seen this madness of crowds coming like some did. The ico's ala tech bubble should have made it obvious in hindsight but hey live and learn. 

[Martlet]

34 minutes ago, Paul said:

Just one off the top of my head "Wabi" - ensuring 100% integrity in the food chain from farm to plate or to ensure the authenticity of pharmaceutical medicine and tablets,  but this blockchain technology could also apply to 'anything' that is counterfeitable.

The trouble is that each stage of production requires manual real world certification.  All the blockchain can do is record what was input, if you dont trust the input, then nothing can change;  if you trust the input the blockchain isn't necessary and you can use existing simpler database systems.  There is a requirement for pharmaceuticals to implement this in the EU.

[swAgger]

The signal is going out to any company having a few difficult quarters. Prepare yourselves some fantasy statement of intent, make sure to include repeated use of "blockchain" "exploration" "innovations team" "solutions ledgers" and you've bought yourself a lengthy reprieve. May as well go for a swim in the stream of bull***t. It works, apparently.

That is really all Carillion had to do before today.

 

[vand]

The older you get you realise that the more the world changes the more it stays the same. 

Yesterday it was dotcom Today it's cryptos. Tomorrow it will be biotech or some other exciting venture. Plastics, commodities, tulips bulbs, precious metals... have all gone to the moon and then crashed as people realise that yes, there is something new here, but the world will continue turning and life will go on with our without, and it is very much a layer on top of what is already in place, never a complete replacement for it.

[whitesands1]

40 minutes ago, vand said:

The older you get you realise that the more the world changes the more it stays the same. 

Yesterday it was dotcom Today it's cryptos. Tomorrow it will be biotech or some other exciting venture. Plastics, commodities, tulips bulbs, precious metals... have all gone to the moon and then crashed as people realise that yes, there is something new here, but the world will continue turning and life will go on with our without, and it is very much a layer on top of what is already in place, never a complete replacement for it.

I agree nothing new, but, as the world moves forward and we become better informed the complexity of the exciting ventures has to grow at a far faster rate.

Tulips, you need to know about water and plant food, now you need to know about Address, Bit, Bitcoin, Block, Block Chain, BTC, Confirmation, Cryptography, Double Spend, Hash Rate, Mining, P2P, Private Key, Signature and Wallets, I've also head about Forks, Ledgers, Cold Storage and Proof of Work.  And this is such a good thing because it means that you can deal with people you don't trust............ really?

[vand]

14 minutes ago, whitesands1 said:

I agree nothing new, but, as the world moves forward and we become better informed the complexity of the exciting ventures has to grow at a far faster rate.

Tulips, you need to know about water and plant food, now you need to know about Address, Bit, Bitcoin, Block, Block Chain, BTC, Confirmation, Cryptography, Double Spend, Hash Rate, Mining, P2P, Private Key, Signature and Wallets, I've also head about Forks, Ledgers, Cold Storage and Proof of Work.  And this is such a good thing because it means that you can deal with people you don't trust............ really?

 

Of course, these bubbles are always initially driven by new technology. Dotcom gave widespread internet usage and paved the way for some great companies like Google & Amazon which really do change the way we do things. Blockchain will have applications and find its use as a better way of doing things. It's just that the market gets WAY ahead of itself and inevitable has to crash first to strip away all the hype before we're left to see what it can actually do for us in the future. At the moment its all pie in the sky hype - transactions between different parties will occur with our without blockchain. If blockchain can in time pave the foundation for additional security/anonymity then great, but life will carry on with our without it.

For all the hoohaa, it hasn't figured out how to stop fakes on eBay, for example.

[Mariner1961]

Apparently at 0100 this morning I was a crypto millionaire as DMT surged to £15,520 a token according to Blockfolio. Fortunately I didn't let this go to my head as it's now back at 72p. Unfortunately the "How much" thought was quickly followed by the "that can't be right" thought. Such is crypto! ?

[Mariner1961]

On the other hand, just in case, I'm willing to let my 119 DMT go for a round £1.5M, you can't ask for a better deal than that! :-)

[PansPurse]

2 minutes ago, Mariner1961 said:

On the other hand, just in case, I'm willing to let my 119 DMT go for a round £1.5M, you can't ask for a better deal than that! :-)

I blame John McAfee

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/motherboard.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/9knnpz/john-mcafee-twitter-coin-of-the-day-cryptocurrency-markets

[Mariner1961]

5 minutes ago, PansPurse said:

I blame John McAfee

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/motherboard.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/9knnpz/john-mcafee-twitter-coin-of-the-day-cryptocurrency-markets

That must have been a hell of a tweet last night.

 

[PansPurse]

Quick update looking at Bitcoin's price. it's hit a new low over the last 24 hours:

Which is looking pretty brutal, compared with the usual drop-then-bounce pattern we've been seeing for the last month. That said, overall the last month shows a steady drop in bitcoin's price:

So now I guess the question is where/if it's going to level out?

[vand]

It's going lower... MUCH lower.

[whitesands1]

I think we can be pretty certain where it will bottom out.  In a while this will make a great film. 

I am genuinely delighted for those able to cash out during the frenzy, these are the people with courage and a true understanding of the value of Crypto Currency.