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C12

C-12's Supply, Demand and Price Action thread

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Thought I'd start up a thread to share some technical analysis on gold, silver, cryptos and anything else anyone is interested in. It might be useful for those looking to time their purchases but not necessarily as investment advice. :) 

I've been trading for around 6 years and was a full-time trader back in 2013 (as a intraday low timeframe scalper). I now trade the forex majors in my spare time on higher time frames.  

I look at the markets in a very similar way to Richard Rock. I don't use indicators or oscillators like RSI or stochastics since these lag behind price. 

I've been running an active thread for the last 5 years on a forex trading forum over at - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=390673

Anyway, let's start with Gold. Since it's new year I'll start with higher time-frame analysis.

The monthly looks particularly bullish. We've broken up out of a 6.5 year downtrend, have successfully retested the 50% retracement of the bull move from 1999 to 2011 and the chart is suggesting a move higher. I do see a potential on the monthly for another retest of the breakout line. There is a fresh demand zone below which should mean price is well supported, even if it drops back below the breakout line. 

Looking at the weekly, the bullish picture is even clearer. You can see all the supply levels above have been tested and the levels (targets) are marked off above. This chart suggests we may be off to the races in terms of a significant up-move. 

Gold.PNG

G2.PNG

Edited by C12

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Silver

Well this is a seriously unloved instrument by the looks of this chart. You can see there was a significant bubble in price back in early 2011. Recoveries from these kind of blow off tops can take a long time to play out . 

However, there are positive signs here that we've now made 2 successfully tests off the uptrend line from that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows. It's possible that the low is in and we can now move higher. 

As a silver bull I see outstanding long term value at buying physical at this price and just purchased 100 x Silver Britannia's. If we drop lower then I will surely be back to purchase more. As a physical buyer you don't worry about being stopped out. 

We do know that silver does follow gold though so will see how price action unfolds so may see some fresh demand form early in the new year.

The daily shows we've just bounced off a demand zone and has traded nicely on lower timeframes. As with gold, all supply zones consumed so could run up fast if buyers enter the market.

Silver.PNG

slv.PNG

Edited by C12

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EURUSD

My bread and butter pair to trade. I've been buying EU on and off since 1.09 all the way up. I'm expecting significant resistance at around 1.26 (assuming we take out the current supply) which is the trend line of the multiyear downtrend and a solid supply zone. 

EU.PNG

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GBPUSD

This has been grinding higher over the last year. Forming fresh demands and retesting them on the weekly. I see resistance at 1.39 and supply around around 1.42.

GU.PNG

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Bitcoin

My broker doesn't provide as much history so will look at trading view. The weekly chart shows a seriously stretched market with a whopping bearish engulfing candle. This for me is a clear sign to avoid buying at these price levels. 

You can see the technical uptrend lines. The weekly untested support line is around $5,000 which would certainly stir my interest as a value investor to consider filling my empty crypto wallet. 

The daily shows the uptrend lines more clearly and there is also a demand level at around $8400. Just looking at this chart I can see this ranging and bottoming out for a while (possibly the whole of 2018 and even 2019). 

I may be wrong and we're "off to the moon" from here but I can only say what I see on this chart. Reminds me a bit like silver in April/May 2011. I would imagine there is much better value and less downside risk with alternative cryptos right now. 

Currently short on one of my demo spread bet accounts with half a position off on the initial drop. 

Bitcoin.PNG

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BT.PNG

Edited by C12

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Ripple 

We're starting to see a washout in cryptos. Ripple has a particularly clean buy level at approx $0.42 which I'm planning to load up on if we reach this area. 

This is a centralised bank coin so maybe not the pick of the bunch in the very long term. However, I see this area as a very low risk, high reward entry if get down there. I would expect some longer term basing before taking out the spike highs. 

These markets are extremely volatile and it's far better to accumulate at value rather than chase price if you're an investor. This coin has a $48 Billion dollar market cap so you can be sure there's some serious pain out there. 

I've got a whole list of buy zones on a pile of cryptos but this chart stands out. 

 

Ripple.PNG

Edited by C12

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