Get Real

[Cointreau]

Janet Skoyles on silver.

[Cointreau]

I didn't learn anything new here.

[HawkHybrid]

the key is investment and industrial demand for silver account for

a similar ~50% each.

 

the silver price can't rise like it used to because industrial demand

is so high as a percentage of total demand.

 

HH

[HighlandTiger]

Just one thing strikes me. If Silver does go to $150 an oz, or say £90 an oz. Who is going to buy all those coins that today have the high premiums?

 

At least with the cheap stuff, Maples, phillies etc, we can chuck them down to the metal dealers, and take a big profit. 

 

If I have a coin that cost £15 today, I'd make about 6 times my outlay, just at the scrap dealers

 

All those people with the £100+ proofs today, I think will struggle big time to get £600 for them.   

 

Just a thought for those stacking with a eye for a future profit.

[craig12]

thank you for that , interesting he mentioned  maples, eagles and smaller bars , he seem to be saying 1 kilo bars  good investment but maybe hard to move on  as  we have had that view from a few folk    good  % over spot  but are you gunna get stuck with the kilo bar   seems to me to be silently saying  10 oz  max bar  but if a good deal on 10x 1 oz bars could be achieved then go for those  wonder why he picked out  maples  and eagles   

[HelpingHands]

Mr.Tiger, that's why the supposed rule is buy the cheapest silver when silver is cheap and by the premium silver when the market is high. But like I've said before, it's tough not to buy the nice stuff when it's this cheap.

[garthy]

Good interview, covered a lot of stuff we already but reinforced my feelings for silver, if supply keeps on outstripping demand prices do have to rise.

 

Agree HT, if we do go to $150 an oz we're better off stocking up on the cheaper stuff today, my choice of bullion are eagles and britannias but saying that I still like a proof coin here and there.

 

I was gonna make a gold purchase this weekend but now I may go for silver.

[Carpe Diem]

the key is investment and industrial demand for silver account for

a similar ~50% each.

 

the silver price can't rise like it used to because industrial demand

is so high as a percentage of total demand.

 

HH

 

The graph below shows how it may be changing back to a more monetary demand as people are seeing the central banks keep on rowing up the Swanee so it may be reverting to a haven in the same way as gold.

 

The following graph was taken from analysis on belangp's YouTube channel -

 

 

 

Quantity silver in jewellery and making coins and bars – government dishoarding = net hoarding

Amount used by industry - silver recycled from scrap every year = net industrial demand

 

This shows % of newly mined silver being used in industry Vs % being hoarded.  The upward trend in hoarded silver indicates that more and more people are demanding silver for its store of value properties than valuing it for its industrial use - 

 

 

 

It'd be interesting to keep tabs on this and see if the trend continues when we get the next results in around 9 months.

 

He calculated this from the data in the recent Silver Institute report over the last 10 years found here 

[HighlandTiger]

I was gonna make a gold purchase this weekend but now I may go for silver.

 

LOL, so was I. I am also re-thinking this weeks purchases.....

 

Not sure if its "great minds......" or "following like sheep".........

[garthy]

LOL, so was I. I am also re-thinking this weeks purchases.....

 

Not sure if its "great minds......" or "following like sheep".........

 

Oh definitely great minds!

[HawkHybrid]

Just one thing strikes me. If Silver does go to $150 an oz, or say £90 an oz. Who is going to buy all those coins that today have the high premiums?

 

At least with the cheap stuff, Maples, phillies etc, we can chuck them down to the metal dealers, and take a big profit. 

 

If I have a coin that cost £15 today, I'd make about 6 times my outlay, just at the scrap dealers

 

All those people with the £100+ proofs today, I think will struggle big time to get £600 for them.   

 

Just a thought for those stacking with a eye for a future profit.

 

who's going to find buyers for 40M+ ounces of maples should a mere 3 yrs of

sellers decide to sell? dealers still need to sell it on to someone in some form?

and no the industrial companies won't buy it at £90/oz.

(truth is in the last rise bullion type silver was changing hands for less than

the melt value at the scrap dealers)

 

should be much easier to find 300k rich collectors for rm lunar horses.

 

HH

[HelpingHands]

I doubt it'll be any easier to pick the next high that it's been for us to pick the recent low. There will be gradual sales as it rises.

[HighlandTiger]

who's going to find buyers for 40M+ ounces of maples should a mere 3 yrs of

sellers decide to sell? dealers still need to sell it on to someone in some form?

and no the industrial companies won't buy it at £90/oz.

(truth is in the last rise bullion type silver was changing hands for less than

the melt value at the scrap dealers)

 

should be much easier to find 300k rich collectors for rm lunar horses.

 

HH

No they won't buy it at £90 an oz. but you'll at least get between 80-90% of spot. Which will be  £70 and £80 an oz. . I'd be happy with that. But as for using RM Lunar horses as an example. well I don't class them as a high premium coin. You can pick them up quite easily for £20. To me that's still in the bullion price range

[Cointreau]

who's going to find buyers for 40M+ ounces of maples should a mere 3 yrs of

sellers decide to sell? dealers still need to sell it on to someone in some form?

and no the industrial companies won't buy it at £90/oz.

(truth is in the last rise bullion type silver was changing hands for less than

the melt value at the scrap dealers)

 

should be much easier to find 300k rich collectors for rm lunar horses.

 

HH

Dohhh! Of course industrty would buy silver at £90 p/oz and more besides.

How much is platinum and palladium worth? Aren't they used in catalytic converters?

Rare earth metals. How much they worth? Silver will have its day. The price will  multiply.

And when that happens then premiums on the fancy coins will compress.

[HawkHybrid]

using rm proofs are a bit unfair as they are overpriced even by dealers

opinions. remember you can get proofs now for as little as £30/oz so just

2X what you'd normally pay for maples. with mintages usually less than

100k and remember collectors buy to keep so as each one is bought, it

may not return to the market for some time, especially if it's a chinese

buyer.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

industry that relies on silver in quantity won't be able to afford to buy

at those prices unless they can pass the cost on to customer/consumers.

 

HH

[HighlandTiger]

industry that relies on silver in quantity won't be able to afford to buy

at those prices unless they can pass the cost on to customer/consumers.

 

HH

 

That's ok, they can pass on the price to consumers.

 

Looking at this list, it's not as though I'm going to be affected much ......

 

Silver in Industry

 

From non-corroding electrical switches to chemical-producing catalysts, silver is an essential component in nearly every industry. Its unique elemental properties make it impossible to substitute and its uses span almost every sector of industrial application.

Electric power, the most important source of power in global industry, depends on the distribution of electric power depends upon silver contacts in switches and circuit breakers. Silver contacts in membrane switch panels are now standard in control panels for machinery, chemical industry processes, railway traffic controls and elevator buttons.

Silver oxide and zinc batteries have twice the capacity of lead-acid batteries, making them the power source of choice for television and film crews, aircraft and submersibles. Unlike other substances, silver performs well at high temperatures. For example, silver batteries are the only kind that can function at the high temperatures found deep in oil wells.

Another important use is in radiography, the use of photo film to evaluate the internal condition of materials. This technique is key for the discovery of structural flaws.

For more information on silver’s use in industrial applications, go to this link for a report on the future of silver industrial demand.

[garthy]

from 2009

 

industry that relies on silver in quantity won't be able to afford to buy

at those prices unless they can pass the cost on to customer/consumers.

 

HH

 

I believe that's what will happen HH, they'll pass it on the the consumer, from 2009 till 2011 copper went up 200%, if you take into account the amount of copper consumed by industry compared to silver I think this is comparable and copper consumption hardly dropped. 

[Cointreau]

industry that relies on silver in quantity won't be able to afford to buy

at those prices unless they can pass the cost on to customer/consumers.

 

HH

 

industry that relies on silver in quantity won't be able to afford to buy

at those prices unless they can pass the cost on to customer/consumers.

 

HH

So Apple and Samsung won't be able to afford the higher prices? Will people stop buying smartphones if they're ten pounds more?

Will the Military Industrial Complex stop buying silver? Big Pharma? Keithoil?

[HighlandTiger]

So Apple and Samsung won't be able to afford the higher prices. Will people stop buying smartphones if they're ten pounds more?

Will the Military Industrial Complex stop buying? Big Pharma? Keithoil?

 

PMSL 

[HawkHybrid]

companies that can't pass on the prices will eventually go bust, consumer

demand on related end products will not be as high as it could be. I seriously

doubt industry can take on an extra 40M+ oz scrap silver at those prices should

it come to it. 

 

actually I'm looking at this wrong, the investors/traders will buy the silver so you will

be able to sell it. 

 

HH

[HighlandTiger]

companies that can't pass on the prices will eventually go bust, consumer

demand on related end products will not be as high as it could be. I seriously

doubt industry can take on an extra 40M+ oz scrap silver at those prices should

it come to it. 

 

actually I'm looking at this wrong, the investors/traders will buy the silver so you will

be able to sell it. 

 

HH

 

The amount of silver in an consumable unit is relatively small, There is on average 0.35g of silver in a mobile phone. cost today of about 14p. If Silver increased by 6 times, it would put the price of a mobile phone up by  another 70p. I don't think there will be a problem passing on the costs on to the consumer.

 

No-one will go bust passing on such small amounts to Joe Public 

[Danny-boy]

Agreed, there are not many items that have so much silver in them that the price could not be absorbed or passed forward.

Investor interest would also rise if the price started rising.

Let's stay low for a couple years, then rise. Then we can start an early retirement forum [emoji1]

[Cointreau]

A typical solar cell that you might have on your roof has roughly one ounce of silver in it.

So any large increase would affect this industry and the Chinese who want to install 70 GW of solar power.

[Cointreau]