Can you trust ngc or pcgs population reports

[Pampfan]

In looking at the population reports for ngc and pcgs coins I asked myself the question - how accurate are they and do they or can they tell the complete picture of how many of a graded coin exists in the market place. 

I know that a lot of dealers and individuals will submit a coin - multiple times with the hopes that it will grade that one number higher - to increase its value by possibly 2x or even more in some cases. 

I am curious as to how many collectors use the pop report to determine whether they will buy a coin or not.

[Agpanda]

I dont check those numbers much, couse they are not accurate

Lot of crossover dont registrer, so pop is many times lower than the numbers suggest

 

[MancunianStacker]

They are as accurate as they can possibly be without mints putting individual serial numbers or micro dots on coins for tracking purposes but with a bug attraction of gold coins being anonymity, I doubt any mint will take this drastic step. 

[SovTracker]

PCGS make their Crossover numbers available on their website.

https://www.pcgs.com/statistics/

In the last 12 months PCGS have graded 3,826,363 coins and have "Attempted" Grading 31,695 Crossovers of which 14,614 were successful.

Looking at the numbers, just under 1% of all the coins that were submitted were Crossovers and less than 0.5% of the yearly Grading was successful.

That makes the Population Report about 99% accurate if I have my sums right.

Allowing for some error margin I would still say about 95% accurate.

[Pampfan]

I believe that the only number in the pop reports that is as close to accurate as there is is the grade of 70 - cause no one would resubmit a coin graded 70 - so you only need to worry about crossovers at that grade - all other population reports are worthless and suspect in my opinion. 

 

 

[Agpanda]

I have done some crosssover from PCGS to NGC with MS70 coins

I realy want all of them to match

Lately I started to stack PCGS MS70 as well, but still prefer NGC

I now have all MS70 2006-2017 in PCGS

[SilverTanner]

I tend to use the population reports as a guide to determine whether to buy or to upgrade a coin.

For example I would not buy a coin raw or graded at the AU58/MS61 level if there were quite a few recorded at NGC and PCGS at MS64 or higher as this would suggest I would better saving my money as a higher grade example will come along at some point.

As a result I have bought coins at AU53 as the reports suggest that there maybe just a single coin at AU55 meaning it could be a very long time, if ever, before a UNC raw coin appears - if it does I will have a good idea of how rare that is and I can justify paying a premium. 

Prices of a coin in different grades are also useful in deciding is it worth it. I have a coin in MS62 which I paid £300 for, there is a single coin higher at either TPG at MS64 and it will be in an auction soon and the estimate is £6000-£8000 so I will stay very happy with my MS62? (I don't think a 2 point jump in grade is always worth it as that could easily be the difference in opinion and will depend on the actual coin and not the number on the slab - as it always should)

[SovTracker]

I too look at the Population Reports as a guide to the higher grades on older coins.
I look for value and affordability but I like to get as high as I can.
I have a couple of single finest and a number within the top 10 graded and recently I have been trying to upgrade my stack.
Not always easy but as you say if you wait long enough then something is likely to turn up.
I had a problem buying too much without concentrating on quality. Fortunately the tablets have now kicked in!

[sovereignsteve]

1 hour ago, Agpanda said:

I have done some crosssover from PCGS to NGC with MS70 coins

I realy want all of them to match

Lately I started to stack PCGS MS70 as well, but still prefer NGC

I now have all MS70 2006-2017 in PCGS

I think you need help

Is there a branch of Panda Anonymous near you?