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I hear a lot of people mention war as a reason to invest in gold or silver. That uncertainty leads to people leaving the stocks and bonds markets. 

I am confused as to why this is. Saying Donald Trump could provoke a war with Iran or North Korea seems to drive the prices up. But I don't understand why. Say Britain invades Spain, for whatever reason. Why does that impact the U.S. or China? The influx of war build up should show a reason to buy stock in weapons manufacturers. 

Any help in understanding this would be appreciated. 

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I'm of the opinion that there are no free markets any more and that absolutely everything is manipulated and all they are looking for is a reason to spin a certain narrative to suit the manipulated  movement or full blown intervention.  I think Brexit genuinely took them unawares as gold shot up after it but it never after Trumps victory despite it supposedly being 98% in the bag for Killery.  After 9/11 gold instantly went up to $4000 but nobody remembers this because they pulled the plug on it straight away and wiped all record of this from existence.

Edited by Scuzzle

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6 minutes ago, Scuzzle said:

...After 9/11 gold instantly went up to $4000 but nobody remembers this because they pulled the plug on it straight away and wiped all record of this from existence.

That's a new one for me.  As some one who used to work with market data and loathed how graphs got screwed by spikes and troughs, from market opening/close auctions and errors, I don't believe its possible to "wipe all record".  Once the data is public its stored and replicated across thousands of systems, not necessarily with any correction algorithms. 

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Because war causes uncertainty, and markets don't like uncertainty.  Uncertainty means the big boys don't make money, so they pile into the traditional 'safe haven' assets: Gold, and Swiss Francs.

On the scenarios you presented:

The UK isn't going to go to war with Spain; the majority of their Navy is still at the bottom of the English Channel and Spain have enough problems of their own without us giving them a dig.

North Korea: Interesting concept.  South Korea and Japan are both fairly pivotal to the good-running of global markets; war in the peninsula would definitely cause markets to go haywire.  Gold would soar.

Iran:  Why Iran is back on the sh*tlist is beyond me.  Saudi is the problem.  A war with Iran would be ill-advised, but limited in its global fallout.  Gold would spike initially, but likely fall back after a couple of months.

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28 minutes ago, Martlet said:

That's a new one for me.  As some one who used to work with market data and loathed how graphs got screwed by spikes and troughs, from market opening/close auctions and errors, I don't believe its possible to "wipe all record".  Once the data is public its stored and replicated across thousands of systems, not necessarily with any correction algorithms. 

The gold price spiked from $215.50 to $287 an ounce on 9/11. A massive percentage move but not $4000. Those prices are amazing. i wonder when in the future we will be able to look back and wish we had bought more today.

Edited by sixgun

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I wasn't suggesting Britain would invade Spain. It was only a hypothetical scenario. But outside of a global conflict, why should foreign investors care about the economy of other countries which may be engaged in war? America has been engaged in war operations within Afghanistan since 2001, and remains to this day. Doesn't seem to impact the price of gold or silver.

As to the uncertainty. I can be certain that war requires guns, bullets, uniforms, tanks, fuel, etc. Why wouldn't a person just shift into a position weighted to a war economy? Why not even buy stock in a bank who buys war bonds? This idea of "uncertainty" is a little confusing to me.

I know that in the past, not even that long ago, governments settled transactions with gold. This doesn't seem to be the case these days. So a sudden scarcity in a certain country seems to be a minuscule factor in determining the valuation of gold and silver. 

And it isn't like the PM's suddenly vanished. They are just in someone else's hands.   

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40 minutes ago, aztecstargazer said:

I wasn't suggesting Britain would invade Spain. It was only a hypothetical scenario. But outside of a global conflict, why should foreign investors care about the economy of other countries which may be engaged in war? America has been engaged in war operations within Afghanistan since 2001, and remains to this day. Doesn't seem to impact the price of gold or silver.

As to the uncertainty. I can be certain that war requires guns, bullets, uniforms, tanks, fuel, etc. Why wouldn't a person just shift into a position weighted to a war economy? Why not even buy stock in a bank who buys war bonds? This idea of "uncertainty" is a little confusing to me.

I know that in the past, not even that long ago, governments settled transactions with gold. This doesn't seem to be the case these days. So a sudden scarcity in a certain country seems to be a minuscule factor in determining the valuation of gold and silver. 

And it isn't like the PM's suddenly vanished. They are just in someone else's hands.   

The reason Afghanistan didn't have a massive impact is because it was a failed state with no major exports, or imports.  It was, in essence, a country that did not matter.  Iraq was similar due to the impact of sanctions by the point of invasion, although Iraq did have a major impact on oil prices.

A lot of the industries you mentioned are nationalised, or semi-private government run.  However, you'd have been very rich if you'd invested in Halliburton before the IRaq war, you would have seen in excess of a 100% return on your money.  Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld destroyed Iraq, and then the same men used America tax-dollars to pay Halliburton to rebuild it... they just happened to be shareholders.

Uncertainty is anything that could conceivably impact everyday market trading.  War causes uncertainty, which causes the price to move - some people will bet that one thing will happen, others will lay that bet.

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50 minutes ago, Clens92 said:

The reason Afghanistan didn't have a massive impact is because it was a failed state with no major exports, or imports. 

The invasion of Afghanistan had a massive impact, which is why it was invaded. It is the source of many $billions for dark operations. Afghanistan has massive exports to a street near you. Heroin production when the Taliban were in charge had fallen away to next to nothing. Then democracy visited Afghanistan and heroin production went through the roof. The impact on lives of the heroin being hosed into our communities is immeasurable. The cost runs to 100's of $billions. Damage to property, damaged lives, deaths, family breakdown, abused children, health costs, theft, insurance premiums, court and jail costs, police costs......

More proof politicians are not and never have worked for us, the people. They are treasonous bastards who should be at the end of a rope.

51171688be66340c864a19b004dd97dc--afghanistan-war-poppy-fields.jpg

i see it said that the reason behind the North Korean pantomine is heroin. Governments are the biggest drug lords in the world. The British Empire were drug dealers to China and strong armed opium into China.

https://nworeport.me/2017/08/15/kim-jong-un-poppy-fields-in-north-korea-real-reason-for-war/

Edited by sixgun

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10 hours ago, Clens92 said:

 

Iran: Why Iran is back on the sh*tlist is beyond me. Saudi is the problem. A war with Iran would be ill-advised, but limited in its global fallout. Gold would spike initially, but likely fall back after a couple of months.

 

US wars are mostly driven by economics. Iran is moving away from trading their oil in dollars. (Gaddafi did the same as did Saddam Hussein). Iran also has one of the last central banks not controlled by the US. It's one of the founding members of an alternative to the IMF along with China and Russia. I'm pretty sure Trump will start a war with Iran but there will be no reason outside of upholding the $$$ to do so.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/06/01/russia-wants-to-convince-bric-partners-to-create-alternative-banking-system/#1a21dc1359af

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/01/01/how-united-iran-russia-china-changing-world-better.html

As an interesting aside here's a graphic showing US military bases blocking China :

china surrounded.PNG

Edited by jacksj1

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28 minutes ago, MIP said:

I know that the lausy paella you english tourists get at our sunny coasts is horrible, still I don't consider it a good reason to go to war with us.

You haven't seen the Paella Soup (with Risotto Rice and Chorizo) or the Paella Wrap they serve here in the supermarkets

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10 hours ago, sixgun said:

The invasion of Afghanistan had a massive impact, which is why it was invaded. It is the source of many $billions for dark operations. Afghanistan has massive exports to a street near you. Heroin production when the Taliban were in charge had fallen away to next to nothing. Then democracy visited Afghanistan and heroin production went through the roof. The impact on lives of the heroin being hosed into our communities is immeasurable. The cost runs to 100's of $billions. Damage to property, damaged lives, deaths, family breakdown, abused children, health costs, theft, insurance premiums, court and jail costs, police costs......

More proof politicians are not and never have worked for us, the people. They are treasonous bastards who should be at the end of a rope.

51171688be66340c864a19b004dd97dc--afghanistan-war-poppy-fields.jpg

That photo just shows a US patrol, not guards. But yes, I agree that CIA and US Military and Mafia have spun a close network for production, transport and distribution for drugs. With key personal hopping from agencies to government positions, whether in the oil industry, arms production or in drugs, I wouldn't generalise that all politicians are criminals but yes, plenty of them are. 

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38 minutes ago, MIP said:

I know that the lausy paella you english tourists get at our sunny coasts is horrible,

I was once served a paella , bit like soup, that was supposed to be the dog's danglies and a local speciality at a top restaurant somewhere near Almeria. Wasn't impressed:(

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They have poppy fields everywhere over there, I didn't see any US soldiers guarding them and we weren't guarding them ethier but then again I don't think they could of trusted squaddies guarding them 😂   but I was quite surprised that we didn't do anything about the opium plants, thats how some of the locals made money to live and to also help fund them to attack us in fighting season 😂

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7 hours ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

How fluent is your Spanish?   could they have said, "made from the dog's danglies"?

Well now you mention it...............  however it was my business host who told me and he spoke perfect English. Of course he could have been a cheapskate and lying about it being a top local restaurant:D

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On 10/12/2017 at 20:56, Micky9776 said:

<snip> but I was quite surprised that we didn't do anything about the opium plants, thats how some of the locals made money to live and to also help fund them to attack us in fighting season 😂

I think the justification was it was part of the 'hearts and minds' push, it was a cash crop for a significant number of the population including regular people trying to make a living. If Western troops arbitrarily burnt every field they came across then you'd be destroying livelihoods. How many ticked off farmers/workers would join insurgent groups either just to stick it to us or just to earn some money? 

The US did persue campaigns of crop eradication and alternative crop promotion but it wasn't very sustainable.

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1 hour ago, Ares said:

I think the justification was it was part of the 'hearts and minds' push, it was a cash crop for a significant number of the population including regular people trying to make a living. If Western troops arbitrarily burnt every field they came across then you'd be destroying livelihoods. How many ticked off farmers/workers would join insurgent groups either just to stick it to us or just to earn some money? 

The Taliban (including the elusive omnipotent ex-CIA operative Bin Laden) stopped opium production completely under their reign, yet few tried to drive that bunch of foreigners (including Al-Quaeda aka "The [Operatives] List") out of Afghanistan... 

But then again the Taliban didn't want to win hearts and minds. 

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15 minutes ago, augur said:

The Taliban (including the elusive omnipotent ex-CIA operative Bin Laden) stopped opium production completely under their reign, yet few tried to drive that bunch of foreigners (including Al-Quaeda aka "The [Operatives] List") out of Afghanistan... 

But then again the Taliban didn't want to win hearts and minds. 

It was framed in a religious way, to fail to uphold this law would open you up to strict punishment because the growing of Opium was unIslamic. The impacts were severe and the majority of the rural economy completely collapsed. It got so bad that you had the UN/US wanting to get involved in delivering aid to the farmers being impacted as starvation became a real risk.

The Taliban used to collect tax on the Opium trade, when they banned it they replaced it with nothing. If the US hadn't gone in, in a parallel world, we'd have seen the country collapse entirely.

Effectively it's a very complex issue, but ultimately I can understand the West's desire to ease in a new economic system gently rather than destroying it and building up from nothing.

Edited by Ares

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I know it was all about hearts and minds but I got mixed reviews from the locals, some like us and some didn't. The kids where the worst, happy to see us but then as we drive away, out came the rocks 😂 Some of the elders liked it and weren't bothered that their kids were doing it but when we started to fire mini flares at them,    (In the general direction) and the flares started to go into the fields, they soon got their kids to stop 😂

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Just now, Micky9776 said:

I know it was all about hearts and minds but I got mixed reviews from the locals, some like us and some didn't. The kids where the worst, happy to see us but then as we drive away, out came the rocks 😂 Some of the elders liked it and weren't bothered that their kids were doing it but when we started to fire mini flares at them,    (In the general direction) and the flares started to go into the fields, they soon got their kids to stop 😂

Yeah I totally understand, this is all from the view from my comfy armchair! It just feels like if you guys went in and torched it all, you'd find a more hostile response in the next village you went to than you otherwise would have.

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1 minute ago, Ares said:

It just feels like if you guys went in and torched it all, you'd find a more hostile response in the next village you went to than you otherwise would have.

Totally agree 

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