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KDave

Catalonia and the effect on banks

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Catalana Occidente, one of the largest insurers in Spain, has also moved headquarters from Catalonia. The value of companies having moved or with intention to move from Catalonia to Spain has reached 50% of the GDP of Catalonia. While this doesn't clearly indicate the expected shortfall of corporation tax, it shows that the Catalonian budget has to be much tighter, come Independence or not. 

http://www.elmundo.es/economia/2017/10/10/59dcab51e2704ef0128b45f4.html

 

Edit: addition 

The largest publisher in Spain, Grupo Planeta, will also abandon Catalonia after being formed exactly 100 years ago in Barcelona.

http://www.elmundo.es/economia/2017/10/10/59dd19ece2704e5e188b4674.html

Edited by augur

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Please correct me if I am wrong @realbluegold or any native Catalan/Castellano speaking person:

did Puigdemont actually declare the independence or just assume that he has now the mandate to declare a republic which he asks the parliament to suspend (whenever it may be declared)?

 

Llegados a este momento histórico, y como presidente de la Generalitat, asumo al presentar los resultados del referéndum ante el Parlamento y nuestros conciudadanos, el mandato del pueblo de que Cataluña se convierta en un estado independiente en forma de república.

Arrived at this historic moment, and as president of the Generalitat, I assume, by presenting the results of the referendum before Parliament and our fellow citizens, the people's mandate that Catalonia becomes an independent state in the form of a republic.

 

transscript of the speech in Catalan and Spanish 

https://issuu.com/jorgea.rodriguezarroyo/docs/7797f7b7-29c1-4e43-9985-b3c1513dd69/1?ff=true&e=26088274/54153967

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/10/10/actualidad/1507658001_128339.html

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It appears that Catalonian banks have been requesting substantial additional funding from the ECB in the wake of the bank run and withdrawal of funds. 

https://elpais.com/economia/2017/10/10/actualidad/1507659307_210143.html

This just shows how vulnerable the fractional banking system is in times of crisis. I am sure @sixgun can add to this. 

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A list and financial data about companies that have left Catalonia in the wake of political uncertainty with financial data. 

https://elpais.com/economia/2017/10/09/actualidad/1507570625_950581.html

 

In a second step companies are now moving their tax domicile out of reach of the Catalan Tax Office. The banks seem to be at the forefront of this move.

https://elpais.com/economia/2017/10/10/actualidad/1507658945_531690.html

 

Edit: Sorry but after all the hostilities I faced in this thread about calling the Govern (Catalan Government) a bunch of criminals, I have to add a quote of the Vicepresident and Counsellor of Economy:

"we are doing a piece of art here [in the formation of the Catalan Republic]"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171011/431979886605/junqueras-descarta-elecciones-catalunya.html

Edited by augur

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Since no one responded to my previous post wether Puigdemont has or has not declared Independence, I have to assume that he hasn't. Otherwise the Spanish Prime Minister wouldn't have asked the same question an hour ago...

What Puigdemont has done though is sign the Declaration of Independence and the formation of the sovereign Republic of Catalonia:

"We [the legitimate representatives of the Catalan People] hereby ESTABLISH the Republic of Catalonia as an independent and sovereign, democratic and social State of law." (my translation)

CONSTITUIMOS la República catalana, como Estado independiente y soberano, de derecho, democrático y social.

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/10/10/actualidad/1507630250_872602.html

 

So next question: Since the Independent Republic of Catalonia has been formed, has the process of independence been suspended yet by the Catalan Parliament? I doubt it as this was signed hours after the session yesterday evening. 

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This is the stranglehold the banks have on life. The people are brainwashed and addicted to their currency. This is how the elites control the world let alone Catalonia. All the banks in Spain are allegedly rocky. There are quite a few smaller banks in Spain but less than there were since they got absorbed into bigger entities. A mass withdrawals from any modern bank will take it down. This should not be an issue for the larger banks operating in Catalonia. The likes of BBVA, Santandar, Banco Sabadell, CaixaBank and so on, They are national. It is only regional banks. Any excuse to get extra currency handouts. It is all part of the scare tactics. If a new land appeared out of the sea the banks would be swarming all over it. There are wars and invasions to get Western banks into countries. We are expected to believe banks are leaving the richest region in Spain which wants independence? Regions already have a lot of autonomy as it is. You do not see mini parliaments in the counties of England but you have them in Spain. More propaganda to scare the people. More strong arm bully tactics.

Much of the world is wising up to their addiction to the USD and shaking it off. They are using their own currencies. i see Iran and Turkey are trading using their own currencies and not through the USD. This would have lead to huge pressures on Turkey in the past but there is contagion and the days of the USD as the world's currency are very numbered. Without this the US cannot wage war on the world. Bring it on. A big step forward to a fair price for gold and silver.

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As a spaniard and basque myself, I find this is just a propaganda war. Lies vs crude truth.

Cataluña has never been an independent kingdom or anything close. So any comparison with Scotland is just like comparing pears and apples.

Second, for centuries the sovereignity of Cataluña has laid exclusively on all the spanish citizens. For any referendum to happen, this right should be put down by all the spanish citizens themselves, or taken unlawfully by force (which is the case), with or without (which is again the case) any moral justification.

Talking about the "force" and violence from the police to those poor catalonian citizens. More propaganda. Of all 800 alleged injured people, only 2 were registered in hospitals. You can search the records, you won't find more. 1 of them was an old chap that got a heart attack by pure chance.

The spanish government has been supporting the broke catalonian economy with 60.000 million € since the crisis started. This won't be advertised by the separatists though.

In summary, to make it short, reading some of you talking about the spanish government "oppression" makes me feel like if some friends from UK/USA ask me why I am not wearing my mexican mariachi hat on the streets and my wife is not in her "flamenco" dancer suit.

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This all reminds me of my favourite scene from Yes, Minister.  What is bad for the EU is generally good for Britain; it's not a popular opinion but as Spain weakens, Britain gets stronger and I'm all for it.  I have to say, after their actions in Gibraltar, I'd quite like Spain to have a difficult diplomatic crisis.

 

Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it’s worked so well?


Hacker: That’s all ancient history, surely?


Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn’t work. Now that we’re inside we can make a complete pig’s breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch… The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it’s just like old times.


Hacker: But surely we’re all committed to the European ideal?


Sir Humphrey: [chuckles] Really, minister.


Hacker: If not, why are we pushing for an increase in the membership?


Sir Humphrey: Well, for the same reason. It’s just like the United Nations, in fact; the more members it has, the more arguments it can stir up, the more futile and impotent it becomes.
Hacker: What appalling cynicism.


Sir Humphrey: Yes… We call it diplomacy, minister.

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BTW talking about effect on banks. I have some high rank contacts in BBVA and Santander and the idea is clear: they are now flying in circles around Caixa and Sabadell.

 

Both were already in a very delicate situation, living on ECB oxygen, and this crazyness has just made things worse.

 

The bigger sharks don't discard another "Popular-1€-purchase" like operation in the next days.

 

Needless to say if you have stock there you are playing with fire to say the least.

 

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This all reminds me of my favourite scene from Yes, Minister.  What is bad for the EU is generally good for Britain; it's not a popular opinion but as Spain weakens, Britain gets stronger and I'm all for it.  I have to say, after their actions in Gibraltar, I'd quite like Spain to have a difficult diplomatic crisis.


Generally speaking, it's not a good policy to rely one's future on other's mistakes or disgraces. It pays off short term, true. But it backfires sooner or later.

It's a lesson yet to be learned by some UK statesmen.

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1 minute ago, MIP said:

Generally speaking, it's not a good policy to rely one's future on other's mistakes or disgraces. It pays off short term, true. But it backfires sooner or later.

It's a lesson yet to be learned by some UK statesmen.

It's served the UK quite well for the last 400 years... and Europe?  Well, just read a history book or watch the news.

I'm always slightly dubious about claims of "high-level contacts", but taking it as gospel... why would anybody have stocks in any Euro-based banks at the moment?  Spain is broke, France is broke, Italy is broke... Germany is doing well but their exposure to bad debt is terrifyingly high.  Might as well take that money to the casino, it'll be safer!

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One sign of the current times is that what has been working for centuries is not working any more. Hell, not even 10 years, if you ask the Nokias...

You would be surprised to know how many people still believes in the unbelievable, this is, the strength of the european banking system. Which is effecively broke since 2009 and living on oxygen and morphine graciously provided by ECB.

I wonder which rabbit they will pull out of the hat to sustain the sandcastle.

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14 hours ago, Clens92 said:

What is bad for the EU is generally good for Britain; it's not a popular opinion but as Spain weakens, Britain gets stronger and I'm all for it.  I have to say, after their actions in Gibraltar, I'd quite like Spain to have a difficult diplomatic crisis.

I can see where you are coming from with an island mentality. While Europe was kept busy, Britain built its empire. But times change. That little monkey rock has little strategic importance and serves mainly to flood Europe with untaxed goods. Unquestionably it is British and the people confirmed that in a referendum. But they don't want Brexit, that would remove the base of their contraband enterprise. 

12 hours ago, Clens92 said:

It's served the UK quite well for the last 400 years... and Europe?  Well, just read a history book or watch the news.

Europe has enjoyed the longest time of peace recorded in history thanks to ever increasing economic ties. Britain on the other hand has failed to benefit from the weak pound since there is hardly any manufacturing. And with the car industry in foreign hands and the largest manufacturer BAE system axing jobs I doubt it will ever happen. At the same time the financial and service industry is starting to move some jobs across the channel do the IMF is right to lower growth expectations in the UK (have a look in your FT)

 

I believe the difficulty lies in protecting local produce and culture while providing access to new markets. A difficult step which unfortunately, in our brand focused society, the international big players will have the upper hand. But without direct representation in institutions like the EU it will be hard to get it our way. 

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7 hours ago, augur said:

I can see where you are coming from with an island mentality. While Europe was kept busy, Britain built its empire. But times change. That little monkey rock has little strategic importance and serves mainly to flood Europe with untaxed goods. Unquestionably it is British and the people confirmed that in a referendum. But they don't want Brexit, that would remove the base of their contraband enterprise. 

Europe has enjoyed the longest time of peace recorded in history thanks to ever increasing economic ties. Britain on the other hand has failed to benefit from the weak pound since there is hardly any manufacturing. And with the car industry in foreign hands and the largest manufacturer BAE system axing jobs I doubt it will ever happen. At the same time the financial and service industry is starting to move some jobs across the channel do the IMF is right to lower growth expectations in the UK (have a look in your FT)

 

I believe the difficulty lies in protecting local produce and culture while providing access to new markets. A difficult step which unfortunately, in our brand focused society, the international big players will have the upper hand. But without direct representation in institutions like the EU it will be hard to get it our way. 

 

You've already confirmed to me via PM that you are more than biased in this debate, so this will be my last response to you as your misrepresentation of news and statistics are not conducive to proper debate.

But, to humour you:  Britain's manufacturing industry is booming.  We have the fifth most complex economy in the world.  The so-called weak pound has led to a manufacturing boom; exports up, profits up.  I'm personally exporting >100% more in 2017 than I was in 2015, and my net cost of sale has increased only 10%.

BAE is axing jobs for an entirely different reason, but you're not interested in that.  1000 jobs is actually the equivalent of a pebble in the sand to the UK; we won't mention that their competitor Babcock is creating many more jobs than those lost... again, for a reason which you do not need to know. 

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I’d rather have the British economy than the Spanish at the moment.      If a hard Brexit is the way it’s going let it be. Europe are playing a very hard game at the moment and I really hope that our negotiators don’t chicken out.     The Brexit  payment will be Europe’s get out of jail free card.   About time they either give a bit or just knock it on the head now 

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If anyone is asking themselves why nothing is happening at the moment, the explanation is very Spanish:

Its bank holiday weekend. Rajoy didn't want to spoil it having to deal with Catalonia. 

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Why hurry now... With charges for rebellion at 20-25 yrs it's better to let the chums cook in their own sauce.

They relented and asked for a honourable solution but Rajoy made clear that after breaking the law there is no honour left to be saved.

The spanish government has asked for a written answer about whether they finally declared secesion or not.

If they say 'yes' they will sleep in the shade for a while
If they say 'no', the leftist radicals will feel betrayed (traition within traition!) and will eat Mr. Puigdemont alive like furious hungry rats.

Pretty machiavelic if you think about it.

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