is gold falling .

[darrol]

just noticed gold has been gone down wondering if this could be an ongoing trend ?  I have been holding back on ordering gold coins because of it and  just wondering on what peoples thought are about it.

[austack]

It always fluctuates, it will go back up and then back down, now is a good time to buy probably, but I have seen 1oz Krugerrands for around £950ish so could be lower.

[Markh]

I was led to believe gold doesn't go up or down, just the currency it's priced in.

[BigDave84]

Gold is up in USD terms is actually up today, $3.80 but down £7.85in GBP terms.  This is down to the GBP hitting a 2017 record against the USD today, coupled with poor inflation figures. When the GBP is strong against the USD, gold will go down in price for us in the UK, despite rising in price in the US. As @Markh has rightly said, the currencies make a big difference. 

[sixgun]

Keep an eagle eye out for good value coins, this will save you more than trying to second guess the price of gold.
There may be some modest pull backs in the next few days but gold and silver have been very firm today in spite of the strength of the USD. These are conditions under which central planners would normally have killed the price but we are in Indian gold buying season and there is lots of physical buying underpinning price. 

i trade gold and silver futures and options all the time but i don't think about the price of gold and silver when i am buying coins. i just get what i like when i see it. If i get good coins and keen prices i am covered. 

[Jay2]

@sixgun I've been eyeing up 8 Best Value sovs recently but every day I see the gold price trickle up and dive down. Do you think we'll see another December drop into the low 900's ?

I'm tempted to just wait and buy then instead, based on historic Decembers. But I have no idea if this year indicates another December low. You say you buy coins you like whenever you see them, but I think getting then for £200 less in a couple months sounds like a no-brainer. I'm new to this though. Your experienced advice would be appreciated.

[sixgun]

If you think price will fall into December, then hold off. No-one knows what will happen for sure. Past performance is no indication of future outcomes.  A lot of billionaires have been buying into gold. Even Jeff Curry of Goldman Sachs very recently recommended people hold physical and not gold futures or ETF's. 

The USD is weak at the moment, this is making gold priced in GBP cheaper. The USD is likely to continue to weaken. There was a 'surprise' push up in the official rate of inflation in the UK. This will put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. This will cause Sterling to strengthen relative to other currencies. This would make gold a lower price in GBP.

The OI [open interest] in gold futures on the COMEX is over 500 000 contracts. The banks are on the short side of the trade. Normally we would expect to see price crushed in the usual wash and rinse cycle where price is taken up, the banks go short on the way up and then sell gold down and take profits so they are long at the bottom and ready to take price back up again. 

Gold and silver are slightly overbought right now. We have had a bit of a pullback as i mentioned might happen yesterday. One might expect price to be taken down into December lows again.

Recently there has been a split in the ranks of the banks. Goldman Sachs for one is not as short as you would expect and have been going significantly long on the London spot markets. 

In the last couple of weeks we were near a commercial signal failure where big players who are short were nearing a point where stops were hit, margins reached and they capitulated. This would have resulted in price racing up. This would have resulted in a price reset with gold going to a significantly higher price. This may still happen. At some point it will happen.

There is a new gold and silver backed cryptocurrency is advanced preparation which will almost certainly result in well over 250 tonnes of gold being bought. i say almost certainly not b/c there is doubt about the volume of gold but there is always the chance of delays. If the crypto goes ahead, the gold will be bought, if it hasn't already been bought on the spot market. i don't know the exact date but staff involved are being trained up this week, so it is likely near. To put 250 tonnes into perspective, Indian will buy about 1000 tonnes of gold this year. Buying >250 tonnes of gold on the spot market, locking in the price and then demanding immediate delivery could do nothing other than rock and potentially knock the gold market over. Clearly the BoE might be able to scramble around and steal gold held in custody, if there is any still there but in the meantime price would jump and stops would be triggered and price would be much higher.

This buying pressure is on top of the already large buying pressure that has been draining Western vaults. The price of gold can only be held down for as long as there is sufficient physical available to keep physical buyers happy. If competition for gold significantly goes up, with other entities on the buy, price will be dictated by the market not paper market manipulation.

There are two opposing forces acting, historically the central banks have won out and price has been taken down. My feeling is we will not be seeing the December lows like last year.

[Ravinella]

• Weekly even daily fluctuations of $20 to $50 at a time utterly meaningless imo.............look at price min of year on year............that'll tell you something that may,and still only then, may, be meaningful................I'm buying whenever I can and will continue to.............but I do take a very long term view,which I know is not the same for everyone.........

[Gav]

If you think price will fall into December, then hold off. No-one knows what will happen for sure. Past performance is no indication of future outcomes. ..... . My feeling is we will not be seeing the December lows like last year.

Well said, I am expecting a good silver slamming just as every other rise has been smashed down.

This is definitely just a feeling and it is hopeful thinking. I am hoping that it is has already started but this time it is maybe the hardest time to guess if it will be slammed down as geopolitical events are going crazy.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4104448-chinas-new-gold-backed-oil-futures-contract-cuts-u-s-dollar

[Jay2]

I was enjoying the article until it demanded I sign in whilst reading. Ad-blocked the box, carried on reading, got spammed by new sign-in boxes, lol. Content walls and data collectors make me rage quietly.