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vand

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  1. Like
    vand got a reaction from Pipers in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Key takeaways from The Millionaire Next Door (none of these should come as a surprise):
    - Typical Millionaires ($1m-$10m) tend to have a strong offence (high income), although not spectacularly high. The median was $131k (in 1996). 
    - They are mostly college educated, and believe education is an investment
    - They also have strong defence (frugality) in relation to their incomes
    - The structure their spending and investments to take advantage of tax law
    - They are overwhelming dominated by business owners and entrepreneurs
    - They own their home, have been married for a long time with children
    - They are not traders. They invest long term, usually holding what they buy for 5 years or more, and overwhelming for 1 year or more
    - They live in nice but not exclusive neighbourhoods
    - They overwhelming drive modest used cars paid for in cash and understand that a car is the ultimate expression of lifestyle creep
     
    There is also some interesting sections on what they dub "Economic Outpatient Care" - supporting grown children who are unable to support their own lifestyle. They interestingly propositions that by overly providing for and spoiling their children, the self-made affluent are doing more to harm their development than they realise.
     
  2. Like
    vand got a reaction from HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    A plea to you all: sit on your hands.
    We stand on the breakout of what will very likely be one of the greatest bull markets of our lifetime. Think about what has happened over the last 10 years: unprecedented level of stimulus into a monetary system that is no longer fit for purpose. This is much worse than the abuse of the system that drove the prior PM bull markets of 1971-1980 and 1999-2011. 
    The fallout from this crazy experiment will drive the price of gold by similar factors over the next decade, just as it did during the previous bull markets. Bull markets always run longer and further than nearly all their early adopters think is possible.
    PMs will be valued many multiples higher in the years to come. Scoot on over to a "mainstream" investment site like MrMoneyMustache or MoneysavingExpert and gold doesn't even figure on the radar. They are ALL about passive index funds and chasing the stock market. They worship VTSAX. If you are lucky you might find someone holding 20% bonds. They won't even look at gold until it has at least doubled from current levels, and even then they will be some of the earlier adopters. 
    There will come a time to sell your PMs and buy something that is better value, but that time is still years away. It will be when everyone thinks it is a good time to be overweight on gold, when Dow/Gold is somewhere between a half to a quarter of its current level.
  3. Like
    vand got a reaction from goldmember44 in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    I hope everyone has is not only still holding, but has been continually buying, because the odds are improving rapidly that we have seen the bottom of this intermediate correction.
    The recent correction knocked off about $110 from about $1560 down to $1450. We moved from a fairly stretched level about 17% above the 200dma back to a much more moderate 3.5%.This is a very healthy level of correction to recycle money out of tired hands, ready for the next leg up.
    GDX is looking very strong. Silver has been holding up very well.. all good signs that this is a healthy bull market ready to start moving up again. 
  4. Thanks
    vand reacted to Bumble in Chart Of The Day thread   
  5. Like
    vand got a reaction from AurumArgenti in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Friday felt like a capitulation bottom.
    I think the odds are now very good that we are ready to start the next upleg.
    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2019/11/bloodbath-phase-2.html
  6. Like
    vand got a reaction from goldmember44 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Friday felt like a capitulation bottom.
    I think the odds are now very good that we are ready to start the next upleg.
    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2019/11/bloodbath-phase-2.html
  7. Like
    vand got a reaction from Abyss in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Your investment thesis is massively shaped by your experience of the Financial Crisis.  While this was not an insignificant event that scared a lot of people, there is so more more to the whole story than that particular data point which sticks in peoples' memories.
    For sure there will be a huge crisis in the future, and you could be right that it may be just around the corner... but I and many others have been expecting the next meltdown for 5 or more years now. It might just as easily not arrive for another 5 years. 
    Being significantly invested in a well diversified portfolio is a play on the continuation of global growth...
    Here is the history of global GDP:
    2017 $80,250,107,912,599 3.14% 2016 $77,796,772,093,915 2.51% 2015 $75,834,189,927,314 2.86% 2014 $73,725,379,037,299 2.86% 2013 $71,687,932,799,352 2.62% 2012 $69,835,075,997,485 2.51% 2011 $68,117,537,705,699 3.18% 2010 $66,036,387,107,063 4.32% 2009 $63,278,666,091,537 -1.73% 2008 $64,399,690,013,189 1.82% 2007 $63,259,518,020,148 4.22% 2006 $60,720,488,421,950 4.29% 2005 $58,230,742,361,797 3.84% 2004 $56,086,514,592,435 4.37% 2003 $53,737,125,361,629 2.90% 2002 $52,220,509,439,522 2.20% 2001 $51,095,322,159,447 1.92% 2000 $50,130,722,143,818 4.38% 1999 $48,021,528,352,458 3.25% 1998 $46,506,096,439,914 2.54% 1997 $45,353,283,623,640 3.70% 1996 $43,733,271,645,654 3.39% 1995 $42,298,840,848,045 3.03% 1994 $41,051,343,871,915 3.01% 1993 $39,850,411,491,683 1.53% 1992 $39,247,745,909,952 1.78% 1991 $38,559,540,875,343 1.43% 1990 $38,015,667,938,023 2.92% 1989 $36,937,516,003,131 3.68% 1988 $35,626,474,048,000 4.62% 1987 $34,050,052,752,417 3.69% 1986 $32,838,664,486,609 3.41% 1985 $31,756,450,901,427 3.73% 1984 $30,613,074,121,710 4.52% 1983 $29,289,767,991,599 2.42% 1982 $28,594,942,186,014 0.39% 1981 $28,482,919,388,282 1.94% 1980 $27,940,484,897,837 1.86% 1979 $27,429,440,588,887 4.16% 1978 $26,336,677,120,331 3.96% 1977 $25,332,940,501,772 3.95% 1976 $24,370,312,253,880 5.35% 1975 $23,132,512,801,824 0.74% 1974 $22,961,416,388,240 2.02% 1973 $22,506,580,764,392 6.57% 1972 $21,119,716,814,289 5.78% 1971 $19,967,598,712,001 4.34% 1970 $19,137,764,679,469 3.89% 1969 $18,420,822,162,383 6.12% 1968 $17,358,890,574,473 6.20% 1967 $16,346,745,284,296 4.41% 1966 $15,656,338,923,246 5.80% 1965 $14,798,407,343,429 5.58% 1964 $14,017,853,410,304 6.66% 1963 $13,141,865,125,510 5.21% 1962 $12,491,064,038,138 5.57% 1961 $11,832,723,884,098 4.32% Even the financial crisis was nothing but a mere blip of -1.73% in 2009. Every single other year the world has grown as technology advances, markets bring increasing prosperity and people work to better their individual lives. Are you really going to bet against that continuing?
    https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/#gdpyear
     
  8. Like
    vand got a reaction from AuricGoldfinger in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Your investment thesis is massively shaped by your experience of the Financial Crisis.  While this was not an insignificant event that scared a lot of people, there is so more more to the whole story than that particular data point which sticks in peoples' memories.
    For sure there will be a huge crisis in the future, and you could be right that it may be just around the corner... but I and many others have been expecting the next meltdown for 5 or more years now. It might just as easily not arrive for another 5 years. 
    Being significantly invested in a well diversified portfolio is a play on the continuation of global growth...
    Here is the history of global GDP:
    2017 $80,250,107,912,599 3.14% 2016 $77,796,772,093,915 2.51% 2015 $75,834,189,927,314 2.86% 2014 $73,725,379,037,299 2.86% 2013 $71,687,932,799,352 2.62% 2012 $69,835,075,997,485 2.51% 2011 $68,117,537,705,699 3.18% 2010 $66,036,387,107,063 4.32% 2009 $63,278,666,091,537 -1.73% 2008 $64,399,690,013,189 1.82% 2007 $63,259,518,020,148 4.22% 2006 $60,720,488,421,950 4.29% 2005 $58,230,742,361,797 3.84% 2004 $56,086,514,592,435 4.37% 2003 $53,737,125,361,629 2.90% 2002 $52,220,509,439,522 2.20% 2001 $51,095,322,159,447 1.92% 2000 $50,130,722,143,818 4.38% 1999 $48,021,528,352,458 3.25% 1998 $46,506,096,439,914 2.54% 1997 $45,353,283,623,640 3.70% 1996 $43,733,271,645,654 3.39% 1995 $42,298,840,848,045 3.03% 1994 $41,051,343,871,915 3.01% 1993 $39,850,411,491,683 1.53% 1992 $39,247,745,909,952 1.78% 1991 $38,559,540,875,343 1.43% 1990 $38,015,667,938,023 2.92% 1989 $36,937,516,003,131 3.68% 1988 $35,626,474,048,000 4.62% 1987 $34,050,052,752,417 3.69% 1986 $32,838,664,486,609 3.41% 1985 $31,756,450,901,427 3.73% 1984 $30,613,074,121,710 4.52% 1983 $29,289,767,991,599 2.42% 1982 $28,594,942,186,014 0.39% 1981 $28,482,919,388,282 1.94% 1980 $27,940,484,897,837 1.86% 1979 $27,429,440,588,887 4.16% 1978 $26,336,677,120,331 3.96% 1977 $25,332,940,501,772 3.95% 1976 $24,370,312,253,880 5.35% 1975 $23,132,512,801,824 0.74% 1974 $22,961,416,388,240 2.02% 1973 $22,506,580,764,392 6.57% 1972 $21,119,716,814,289 5.78% 1971 $19,967,598,712,001 4.34% 1970 $19,137,764,679,469 3.89% 1969 $18,420,822,162,383 6.12% 1968 $17,358,890,574,473 6.20% 1967 $16,346,745,284,296 4.41% 1966 $15,656,338,923,246 5.80% 1965 $14,798,407,343,429 5.58% 1964 $14,017,853,410,304 6.66% 1963 $13,141,865,125,510 5.21% 1962 $12,491,064,038,138 5.57% 1961 $11,832,723,884,098 4.32% Even the financial crisis was nothing but a mere blip of -1.73% in 2009. Every single other year the world has grown as technology advances, markets bring increasing prosperity and people work to better their individual lives. Are you really going to bet against that continuing?
    https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/#gdpyear
     
  9. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Your investment thesis is massively shaped by your experience of the Financial Crisis.  While this was not an insignificant event that scared a lot of people, there is so more more to the whole story than that particular data point which sticks in peoples' memories.
    For sure there will be a huge crisis in the future, and you could be right that it may be just around the corner... but I and many others have been expecting the next meltdown for 5 or more years now. It might just as easily not arrive for another 5 years. 
    Being significantly invested in a well diversified portfolio is a play on the continuation of global growth...
    Here is the history of global GDP:
    2017 $80,250,107,912,599 3.14% 2016 $77,796,772,093,915 2.51% 2015 $75,834,189,927,314 2.86% 2014 $73,725,379,037,299 2.86% 2013 $71,687,932,799,352 2.62% 2012 $69,835,075,997,485 2.51% 2011 $68,117,537,705,699 3.18% 2010 $66,036,387,107,063 4.32% 2009 $63,278,666,091,537 -1.73% 2008 $64,399,690,013,189 1.82% 2007 $63,259,518,020,148 4.22% 2006 $60,720,488,421,950 4.29% 2005 $58,230,742,361,797 3.84% 2004 $56,086,514,592,435 4.37% 2003 $53,737,125,361,629 2.90% 2002 $52,220,509,439,522 2.20% 2001 $51,095,322,159,447 1.92% 2000 $50,130,722,143,818 4.38% 1999 $48,021,528,352,458 3.25% 1998 $46,506,096,439,914 2.54% 1997 $45,353,283,623,640 3.70% 1996 $43,733,271,645,654 3.39% 1995 $42,298,840,848,045 3.03% 1994 $41,051,343,871,915 3.01% 1993 $39,850,411,491,683 1.53% 1992 $39,247,745,909,952 1.78% 1991 $38,559,540,875,343 1.43% 1990 $38,015,667,938,023 2.92% 1989 $36,937,516,003,131 3.68% 1988 $35,626,474,048,000 4.62% 1987 $34,050,052,752,417 3.69% 1986 $32,838,664,486,609 3.41% 1985 $31,756,450,901,427 3.73% 1984 $30,613,074,121,710 4.52% 1983 $29,289,767,991,599 2.42% 1982 $28,594,942,186,014 0.39% 1981 $28,482,919,388,282 1.94% 1980 $27,940,484,897,837 1.86% 1979 $27,429,440,588,887 4.16% 1978 $26,336,677,120,331 3.96% 1977 $25,332,940,501,772 3.95% 1976 $24,370,312,253,880 5.35% 1975 $23,132,512,801,824 0.74% 1974 $22,961,416,388,240 2.02% 1973 $22,506,580,764,392 6.57% 1972 $21,119,716,814,289 5.78% 1971 $19,967,598,712,001 4.34% 1970 $19,137,764,679,469 3.89% 1969 $18,420,822,162,383 6.12% 1968 $17,358,890,574,473 6.20% 1967 $16,346,745,284,296 4.41% 1966 $15,656,338,923,246 5.80% 1965 $14,798,407,343,429 5.58% 1964 $14,017,853,410,304 6.66% 1963 $13,141,865,125,510 5.21% 1962 $12,491,064,038,138 5.57% 1961 $11,832,723,884,098 4.32% Even the financial crisis was nothing but a mere blip of -1.73% in 2009. Every single other year the world has grown as technology advances, markets bring increasing prosperity and people work to better their individual lives. Are you really going to bet against that continuing?
    https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/#gdpyear
     
  10. Like
    vand reacted to Shinus73 in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Worked for me, not financial independence, but unquestionably made things significantly easier on the housing front. I moved into the house my girlfriend (now wife of 13 years) owned in 2005 and began paying half the mortgage. 
    We were quickly in a position to upgrade (daughter on the way) with a small mortgage (40% LTV) and have since upgraded again (for the last time, 40% LTV again, 10 years to go) to a house I could never have dreamed I would own.
    So yes, marry a girl who owns her own home! 😁
  11. Like
    vand got a reaction from Elements in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Yes, I agree, but you can easily substitute at stock bond portfolio used in his example with a multi-asset portfolio and then backtest the portfolio and see how much risk it is offering with something like Sharpe ratio or other risk metrics. 
    Again, just because bonds have gone up as far as the have doesn't mean that they're destined to crash this time next year.  Various asset classes don't necessarily have to behave the same as they have done in the past, but we model and plan using the data that is available to us.

    That is why I say to decide on an AA strategy that you are comfortable with.. it can (and IMO should) ideally include stocks (both developed and emerging markets), bonds, PMs, commodities, and REITs/real-estate. Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.. take advantage of it, rather than trying to time the market.
  12. Like
    vand reacted to AuricGoldfinger in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    There’s a BIG difference between not having to work and retirement.
     
    Im financially independent but I’m not at what I consider retirement level, I don’t HAVE to “work” to pay my bills and have some disposable income to play with afterwards to live modestly, but i would want double what i have now in assets and income to even consider retirement.
    It’s took me around 8/10 years to get to this stage and I’m hoping in another 6 I’ll be at my goal of X in assets and Y in passive income. I work pretty much full time, and would continue to do so as I hopefully reach and surpass goals, main goal being to just further secure this position.
    To the OP, your nearly a year in so just wondering how it’s going? 
  13. Thanks
    vand reacted to HighlandTiger in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Oh I remember in the good old day when it was 75:1.
  14. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Chart Of The Day thread   
    Today's COTD is Centrica: has been completely battered over the last couple of years and on my watchlist. I've been watching the price more closely in recent weeks and it look like it just doesn't wants to go any lower.

  15. Like
    vand reacted to KDave in Chart Of The Day thread   
  16. Thanks
    vand got a reaction from pneustack in Silver Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only   
    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

    I think he calls the market pretty well and one of the few TAs that I pay much attention to.
    His "yearly/imtermediate/daily cycle" system is simply a way of framing trends within different timeframes.
  17. Like
    vand got a reaction from MikeInTexas in Silver Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only   
    Ouchie.
    Correction continues.
    I fear this is heading back down another dollar or 2.
  18. Like
    vand reacted to mdp2505 in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    And we are back to silver!
  19. Like
    vand got a reaction from AuricGoldfinger in Goal - Financial Independence In Ten Years   
    Key takeaways from The Millionaire Next Door (none of these should come as a surprise):
    - Typical Millionaires ($1m-$10m) tend to have a strong offence (high income), although not spectacularly high. The median was $131k (in 1996). 
    - They are mostly college educated, and believe education is an investment
    - They also have strong defence (frugality) in relation to their incomes
    - The structure their spending and investments to take advantage of tax law
    - They are overwhelming dominated by business owners and entrepreneurs
    - They own their home, have been married for a long time with children
    - They are not traders. They invest long term, usually holding what they buy for 5 years or more, and overwhelming for 1 year or more
    - They live in nice but not exclusive neighbourhoods
    - They overwhelming drive modest used cars paid for in cash and understand that a car is the ultimate expression of lifestyle creep
     
    There is also some interesting sections on what they dub "Economic Outpatient Care" - supporting grown children who are unable to support their own lifestyle. They interestingly propositions that by overly providing for and spoiling their children, the self-made affluent are doing more to harm their development than they realise.
     
  20. Like
    vand got a reaction from Frenchie in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    this is nowhere near a parabolic move.
    The current spot price is only 15.3% above the 200dma.
    That is not even very extended for a historic market. You can expect several +20% readings at each stage of the bull market before a final blowoff top where there will be very clear warning signs - last time it was very clear when silver quickly went from $20 to $50.
    We are technically overbrought, but a common characteristic of strong bull markets is that they can stay overbrought for a long time before a correction.
  21. Like
    vand got a reaction from goldmember44 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    this is nowhere near a parabolic move.
    The current spot price is only 15.3% above the 200dma.
    That is not even very extended for a historic market. You can expect several +20% readings at each stage of the bull market before a final blowoff top where there will be very clear warning signs - last time it was very clear when silver quickly went from $20 to $50.
    We are technically overbrought, but a common characteristic of strong bull markets is that they can stay overbrought for a long time before a correction.
  22. Thanks
    vand reacted to sixgun in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    My modest silver stack has gone up by over £4000 today.
  23. Like
    vand got a reaction from goldmember44 in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    Yep.. this bull market is still in its infancy.

     
    *facepalm*
  24. Like
    vand got a reaction from Fastnick in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    Yep.. this bull market is still in its infancy.

     
    *facepalm*
  25. Like
    vand got a reaction from dicker in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    Most people don't "get" gold at all.  They see it as an unproductive asset with no cashflow, therefore they are willing to unload it at the earliest opportunity which will show them a profit.   They are way over-exposed to stocks and ignoring the warning signs that the bond and gold markets are flashing.
     
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