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vand

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Reputation Activity

  1. Haha
    vand got a reaction from Goldmick in The Farce of UK Silver Stackers Facebook Group   
    Not being funny, but anyone joining a FB group advertising they hold physical precious metals is an idiot.
  2. Like
    vand got a reaction from oliversw5 in Experimental flipping goods. Worth it??   
    I think the word used to describe people who buy and sell stuff is, which is... TRADER.
    Like it or not that's what you are.
    Just like any venture, there is a skill to it. You have traders who are successful and manage to turn a profit, and many who are not successful and don't make any money from it.
  3. Like
    vand got a reaction from oliversw5 in Experimental flipping goods. Worth it??   
    I think the word used to describe people who buy and sell stuff is, which is... TRADER.
    Like it or not that's what you are.
    Just like any venture, there is a skill to it. You have traders who are successful and manage to turn a profit, and many who are not successful and don't make any money from it.
  4. Like
    vand got a reaction from tbone in Big Stack Smuggling   
    The current situation in Venezuela:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/12/venezuelan-middle-class-economic-crisis-pawn-shops
    This is what happens when govt abuses their power to the nth degree. Total destruction of the currency and systemic collapse.
    Can you imagine how much better off the average person would be had they amassed just a few hundred oz of silver and/or half a dozen oz of gold while times were good?
  5. Like
    vand reacted to C12 in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    Yeah I remember driving to a cash point at 1am after watching late night news during the peak of the banking crisis in 2008. There were people queuing up trying to withdraw cash. It was pretty frightening at the time. 
    Those under 32-35 probably wont have any real recollection of these events 10 years ago. 
    As for traders, people just love trends. Who would buy stocks right now? The risk / reward ratio is completely inverted. 
    Take a look at Apple on the monthly which is technically horrific. I don't usually look at declining volume or bearish divergence on oscillators but this is a real stinker.

  6. Like
    vand reacted to RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    After the last 2 days (now 13/02/18) all I hear on the financial media is (my contrarian indicator):
    ‘Stocks are moving higher today, great opportunity to buy’
    ‘Looks like traders are buying the dip’
    ‘Stock market could recover this week’
    ‘Last week was a temporary spasm in the market’
    ‘Volatility subsiding, equities bouncing back’
    ‘Valuations are attractive’ (lol)
    ‘There’s a lot of green if we look across the board...’
    ‘We’re seeing every sector advancing’
    ‘Dip buying continuing, rebound rally’
    ‘NASDAQ actually up for the year, you shouldn’t be worried about this’
    ‘This is not 2007 and alphabet soup of concern. Not in that scenario at all’
    NOT ONE interviewee has said ‘I would take profits here whilst we see what direction the market takes.’ or ‘We could go down heavily from here’.
    Alternative media sites are saying:
    ‘Only the dumb money is selling’
    ‘The smart money bought the dip’
    'You are an idiot if you are short here'
    etc.
    These are actual quotes I wrote down as they came through.
    I heard the same flurry of info in 07/08. I am an amateur trader, no expert in financial matters, but my positions in Forex during 07/08 worked out AND I could be wrong this time. If so, then I reduce/reverse position and continue. The beauty of the market is there is a seller for every buyer.
    DOW currently 24600.
    My interpretation of the media:
    ‘Smart money is off loading their remaining positions during this bounce. Last week was the tremor before the earthquake. Equities could tank. Please hold this expanding steaming bag of **** whilst we get ourselves to the exits before it bursts and causes a panicked stampede.’
    My view is this:
    The charts tell me:
    Banks sell off/eventually fail.
    Equities tank.
    Treasuries enter bear market.
    Commodities hit super bull cycle.
    PM holders may have dip first, but upside hits all time highs. Unfortunately most have capitulated in last 12 months, which was the aim really.
    I am holding Gold. Maybe wise, maybe foolish. Who knows?
     
    All I know is this: The markets are screwed. They can continue kicking the can, but eventually they will run out of alley.
     

  7. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    Greenspan had a lot more ammo at his disposal during his tenure to keep kicking the can down the road; the bond bull market was only a few years old, so he had a lot space for a few rate-cutting cycles, and the US economy was in much better overall long term health - smaller deficits, younger population etc.
     
    That's the problem for Powell today.. he's basically coming in at the end of the party just as the music is about to stop. I think Yellen will go down as one of the luckiest chairs in history, in that she came in after the last crisis and got out of dodge just in time before the next one. 
  8. Thanks
    vand got a reaction from reidpj in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    I think there is zero chance of a deflationary event. 
    I think you've been listening to Mike Maloney too much, who in turn has been listening to too much Harry Dent, who is wedded to his deflationary thesis as he believes everything is demographically driven.
    Deflation is not a pre-requisite before hyperinflation.  The central banks can always create more money supply, and absent people willing to spend their money, governments will certainly step in and act at the buyer of last resort.  Liquidity will leave paper assets and flood into commodities and real assets, which will drive inflation. 
     
    or.. taking an alternative spin on it, you could argue that we have already undergone a deflationary event... in commodities
     
  9. Like
    vand reacted to sixgun in Is silver stacking a loss leader?   
    Buying silver is an investment. Granted investing is something done for profit but there is no time frame given in the definition. There is nothing about dividends or interest in the definition of an investment.
    We have experienced falling or at least static silver prices since 2011 so silver is seem as a loser. It has in many circumstances been a poor investment over this period of time but those buying silver are not doing it b/c they think it is a loser. People buy silver for lots of reasons but for the vast majority it is b/c they believe the value will rise.
    Silver is probably one of the best investments there is around at the moment. The demand is large and there is a decreasing available supply. The futures is bright, the future is silver.
  10. Thanks
    vand got a reaction from reidpj in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    I think there is zero chance of a deflationary event. 
    I think you've been listening to Mike Maloney too much, who in turn has been listening to too much Harry Dent, who is wedded to his deflationary thesis as he believes everything is demographically driven.
    Deflation is not a pre-requisite before hyperinflation.  The central banks can always create more money supply, and absent people willing to spend their money, governments will certainly step in and act at the buyer of last resort.  Liquidity will leave paper assets and flood into commodities and real assets, which will drive inflation. 
     
    or.. taking an alternative spin on it, you could argue that we have already undergone a deflationary event... in commodities
     
  11. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    Greenspan had a lot more ammo at his disposal during his tenure to keep kicking the can down the road; the bond bull market was only a few years old, so he had a lot space for a few rate-cutting cycles, and the US economy was in much better overall long term health - smaller deficits, younger population etc.
     
    That's the problem for Powell today.. he's basically coming in at the end of the party just as the music is about to stop. I think Yellen will go down as one of the luckiest chairs in history, in that she came in after the last crisis and got out of dodge just in time before the next one. 
  12. Like
    vand reacted to KDave in Is silver stacking a loss leader?   
    Looks to me like there is a lot of confusion around why people are buying silver in the first place. Reminiscent of the crypto threads. 
  13. Like
    vand reacted to Lowlow in Is silver stacking a loss leader?   
    For me I think a quote from the character Algamish in the book "The Richest Man in Babylon" pretty much sums it up ... "I found the road to wealth," he said, "When I decided that a part of all I earned was mine to keep. And so will you."
    Recommend reading that 100 year old book for free online to understand why he said that, could change your life.  The book is so popular it is one of the few books of that age that is still available in any bookstore in America.
    I don't think of silver as an "investment" anymore than I think of holding Federal Reserve Notes as an investment, but if you are living in the black and not in debt you have to store your resources in something - that could be real estate, stocks, bonds, collectibles (which is what your high premium silver coin is), options, futures, cash, etc.  Precious metals are a "special something", let's say, that is a lot like real estate in the sense that it is tangible property and isn't subject to counter-party risk, but is also portable and easily stored.  PM is like the ultimate reserve currency.
    Regarding that premium you paid, suggest you investigate the difference between precious metal trading vs collecting and numimatics.
  14. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    Greenspan had a lot more ammo at his disposal during his tenure to keep kicking the can down the road; the bond bull market was only a few years old, so he had a lot space for a few rate-cutting cycles, and the US economy was in much better overall long term health - smaller deficits, younger population etc.
     
    That's the problem for Powell today.. he's basically coming in at the end of the party just as the music is about to stop. I think Yellen will go down as one of the luckiest chairs in history, in that she came in after the last crisis and got out of dodge just in time before the next one. 
  15. Haha
    vand got a reaction from silversurf in Biggest disappointment on buying   
    Nope. It's all just silver.
  16. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Is silver stacking a loss leader?   
    If you buy a 2 ounce coin for £39 then you are not stacking for oz.
  17. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Is silver stacking a loss leader?   
    If you buy a 2 ounce coin for £39 then you are not stacking for oz.
  18. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Is silver stacking a loss leader?   
    If you buy a 2 ounce coin for £39 then you are not stacking for oz.
  19. Like
    vand got a reaction from JCRJM in DOW tanks   
    I agree, this does feel very similar to January 2008 to me. I remember that month very well - we had just clawed back the drops from late summer 2007, and then we had some more large sudden drops, yet everyone was still so very complacent because they expected the market to act as it had umpteen times  before, claw back the losses and then go on to make new highs.
    Well, that is not what happened. Suddenly the market started to drop, and instead of being bought back up it rallied a bit.. but then sold off even harder. I remember having some discussions with not-at-all stupid people that we were now entering a bear market, and they wouldn't even entertain the thought, believing that everything was still great with the economy. I told them "that's not how it works.. the market is a leading indicator" but they just wouldn't hear it.
    The sense of complacency around is very similar to what it was back then. People aren't scared anymore because stocks have gone up so much... they resort to the straw-man argument that you can buy at any price so long as you are prepared to sit tight and hold through any dips - maybe that is true, but that doesn't mean that there won't be far better opportunities just around the corner.
     
    BTW, if they think that 2.8% bond yields are a problem, then they ain't seen anything yet.
     
    If you think there is a lot of risk in many markets then stay heavily in cash and bide your time. I would not get involved in collectibles unless I developed a genuine interest in them.
  20. Like
    vand got a reaction from dixiesilvergirl in Interesting facts melt value of olympic medals   
    LOL.. its very literally debasement.
    They're not known as precious metals for nothing. Even the IOC is faking it.
  21. Haha
    vand got a reaction from silversurf in Biggest disappointment on buying   
    Nope. It's all just silver.
  22. Like
    vand got a reaction from augur in Platinum - who's buying?   
    platinum has held up much better than its sister Palladium in the last few weeks, and indeed they are pretty much back at 1:1 right now. So we may be seeing the start of some reversion to the mean in some of these ratios. 
  23. Like
    vand got a reaction from sovereignsteve in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    So it looks like the Buffett indicator hit and all-time high just prior to the recent sell-off:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4138612-warren-buffett-indicator-now-telling-bet-america
    I calculate that on 29th Jan the ratio of the Wilshire 5000 / US GDP was a nosebleed 159%!

  24. Like
    vand got a reaction from SovTracker in Today I bought.....   
    Happy 2-year stacking anniversary to me!! I have not missed a month, and the spreadsheet now says 1395oz silver and 1.5oz gold.
    Added 38oz today, mainly Perth Mint stuff. I do love their coins, and will continue to stack their stuff heavily going forward. I was recently inspecting some of my the coins I have acquired, and IMO the Perth Mint stuff is by some margin the best. The designs are classy, I love the frosted finish on the Lunar coins, and all they come in plastic cases which offers another layer of protection. None of them have any blemishes whatsoever. 
    The other coins I love are Libertads, which imo are classically beautiful, but I have far fewer Libertads than I do Lunars and Kooks.
  25. Like
    vand reacted to RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    If anyone actually believes Yellen and thinks the world economy is not in for a shock, then I suggest they have a quick glance at this PDF article released only a few days ago...it details the 'real' current worldwide central bank balance sheets, excellent stuff. 
    PDF: peacockfedecbassets.pdf
    I paid attention when the Chancellor of the exchequer Alistair Darling said just before the last crash 'We are in great shape'.
    And now when Janet Yellen says 'No crash in my lifetime', then believe me, I am ready for a crash.