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vand

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  1. Like
    vand got a reaction from ApisMellifera in Do I have a strategy yet?   
    Hey,  don't worry. It's just human nature that when you are getting your teeth into something then you go all-in and live/eat/breath it. But that initial burst of enthusiasm will eventually pass and then you'll either stick with it long term at a sustainable level..or you won't. 
    Ive only been stacking for 20 months and I need an entry on my calendar nowadays to remind me to make my monthly purchase, and otherwise get on with my life.
  2. Like
    vand reacted to MIP in What do you stack and why ?   
    As long as silver is painfully cheap compared to gold (historical ratios) I'll stack the former. If that changes, I'll sell and jump on to the latter.
  3. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in When To switch from PMs to Stocks?   
     
    Yes, timing is the trickiest part.
    It doesn't take a genius to look at some ratios and say what is cheap and what is expensive based on historical ranges, but the problem we all have as investors have is that our lifespan is finite while the market's is not, and it hardly ever works to the timescales that best suit us.
    That's why my strategies are based around buying/selling/swapping in chunks; never all in one go. You will never consistently be able to pick market tops and bottoms. But if you are consistent and disciplined in your approach then I do believe that it's possible to be buying/selling at what will prove relatively good points in the cycle.
    Shares are over-valued and the bull market is so old now, but in all honesty who would be surprised if this continued for another 24 months? How about 36-48 months? It's has defied logic and valuations for so long now why shouldn't it do it for a while longer? In the grand scheme of things I believe that we will see the downside of the cycle before the end of my working lifetime, so does it really matter?
    Sentiment is another thing. At the bottom of a bear market that has already fallen 80% nobody bats an eyelid when the market bounces 20%; I mean, who cares when you've just lost 80%?! But when there are new highs made at the top of bull markets everyone gets massively excited when the market notches another 5% all time high.. My point is that sentiment all depends on how long you have been invested in the market and your entry point. Last time I checked a 20% return was much better than a 5% return, but that is clouded by what the market has done before, regardless of whether you were invested in it or not. 
     
    another way to look at asset allocation..
    (Look at how well the Bonds & Stocks vs PMs negatively correlate over a 10 year return..)
     
     
  4. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in When To switch from PMs to Stocks?   
     
    Yes, timing is the trickiest part.
    It doesn't take a genius to look at some ratios and say what is cheap and what is expensive based on historical ranges, but the problem we all have as investors have is that our lifespan is finite while the market's is not, and it hardly ever works to the timescales that best suit us.
    That's why my strategies are based around buying/selling/swapping in chunks; never all in one go. You will never consistently be able to pick market tops and bottoms. But if you are consistent and disciplined in your approach then I do believe that it's possible to be buying/selling at what will prove relatively good points in the cycle.
    Shares are over-valued and the bull market is so old now, but in all honesty who would be surprised if this continued for another 24 months? How about 36-48 months? It's has defied logic and valuations for so long now why shouldn't it do it for a while longer? In the grand scheme of things I believe that we will see the downside of the cycle before the end of my working lifetime, so does it really matter?
    Sentiment is another thing. At the bottom of a bear market that has already fallen 80% nobody bats an eyelid when the market bounces 20%; I mean, who cares when you've just lost 80%?! But when there are new highs made at the top of bull markets everyone gets massively excited when the market notches another 5% all time high.. My point is that sentiment all depends on how long you have been invested in the market and your entry point. Last time I checked a 20% return was much better than a 5% return, but that is clouded by what the market has done before, regardless of whether you were invested in it or not. 
     
    another way to look at asset allocation..
    (Look at how well the Bonds & Stocks vs PMs negatively correlate over a 10 year return..)
     
     
  5. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in When To switch from PMs to Stocks?   
    The reason why I wanted to open this discussion is because PMs are the asset class that most negatively correlate with stocks. It makes sense when you consider the different and opposite nature of the two.
    Good times to hold PMs are generally bad times to hold stocks and vice versa. 
    Making a fortune is hard; making a fortune and keeping it is even harder, and being in the right asset class to grow/preserve wealth is key to that. 
  6. Like
    vand got a reaction from Oldun in Today I bought.....   
    Are there any common or garden variety stackers still around? Or have you all progressed to slabbed numismatic collecting snobs?
    I only ask because, well because basic silver is very cheap at the moment, but judging by the posts on this thread nobody gets excited unless it comes in a case and has a mintage in single figures..
     
    (I just bought my monthly 20-something ounces of boring silver FWIW).
  7. Like
    vand got a reaction from Oldun in Bullion vs Graded - merits, demerits and timing   
    The thing is that most of the posts from long-timers on TSF revolve around graded and high premium stuff. I think there are a couple of reasons for this:
     
    1. They have obviously been around for a long time and really know their stuff when it comes to numismatics. Most people, even most people who own PMs have next to no knowledge of this tiny segment of the market.
    2. This may be a bit controversial, but I think there is some truth in it... Basically, silver bugs have been largely disappointed for a LONG time now. Bear market for 2011 to late 2015 and then bouncing around near this level for near 2 years since.  During such bear markets you get a LOT of people falling by the wayside as they lose interest. This is what makes it a bear market. I think the people who are now into graded stuff have done it largely as a response to a long period of falling/low spot prices.  Let's face it, if silver just went up and up for many years there would be much more interest and excitement about basic bullion silver and much less incentive to get everything slabbed as a way of maximizing premium.
     
     
  8. Like
    vand got a reaction from Oldun in Today I bought.....   
    Are there any common or garden variety stackers still around? Or have you all progressed to slabbed numismatic collecting snobs?
    I only ask because, well because basic silver is very cheap at the moment, but judging by the posts on this thread nobody gets excited unless it comes in a case and has a mintage in single figures..
     
    (I just bought my monthly 20-something ounces of boring silver FWIW).
  9. Like
    vand got a reaction from Oldun in Bullion vs Graded - merits, demerits and timing   
    The thing is that most of the posts from long-timers on TSF revolve around graded and high premium stuff. I think there are a couple of reasons for this:
     
    1. They have obviously been around for a long time and really know their stuff when it comes to numismatics. Most people, even most people who own PMs have next to no knowledge of this tiny segment of the market.
    2. This may be a bit controversial, but I think there is some truth in it... Basically, silver bugs have been largely disappointed for a LONG time now. Bear market for 2011 to late 2015 and then bouncing around near this level for near 2 years since.  During such bear markets you get a LOT of people falling by the wayside as they lose interest. This is what makes it a bear market. I think the people who are now into graded stuff have done it largely as a response to a long period of falling/low spot prices.  Let's face it, if silver just went up and up for many years there would be much more interest and excitement about basic bullion silver and much less incentive to get everything slabbed as a way of maximizing premium.
     
     
  10. Like
    vand got a reaction from Jeffers46 in Double figure yields on fully sourced and managed properties.   
    Another dyed in the wool BTLer who thinks that the UK property can continue to outstrip general inflation and wages ad infintum.
    The yields you talk about are only available on s^£tholes that nobody would actually want to live in, with high maintenance costs and high probability of voids or problem tenants.
     
  11. Like
    vand got a reaction from Oldun in Bullion vs Graded - merits, demerits and timing   
    The thing is that most of the posts from long-timers on TSF revolve around graded and high premium stuff. I think there are a couple of reasons for this:
     
    1. They have obviously been around for a long time and really know their stuff when it comes to numismatics. Most people, even most people who own PMs have next to no knowledge of this tiny segment of the market.
    2. This may be a bit controversial, but I think there is some truth in it... Basically, silver bugs have been largely disappointed for a LONG time now. Bear market for 2011 to late 2015 and then bouncing around near this level for near 2 years since.  During such bear markets you get a LOT of people falling by the wayside as they lose interest. This is what makes it a bear market. I think the people who are now into graded stuff have done it largely as a response to a long period of falling/low spot prices.  Let's face it, if silver just went up and up for many years there would be much more interest and excitement about basic bullion silver and much less incentive to get everything slabbed as a way of maximizing premium.
     
     
  12. Like
    vand reacted to oliversw5 in Today I bought.....   
    I stack and collect. So yes. 
    They have different strategies but I aim to have 2500 governmental coins by April.
    ** Also a lot of people who buy from me buy purely just governmental coins. Some by the coin some by the tube.
  13. Like
    vand got a reaction from Oldun in Today I bought.....   
    Are there any common or garden variety stackers still around? Or have you all progressed to slabbed numismatic collecting snobs?
    I only ask because, well because basic silver is very cheap at the moment, but judging by the posts on this thread nobody gets excited unless it comes in a case and has a mintage in single figures..
     
    (I just bought my monthly 20-something ounces of boring silver FWIW).
  14. Like
    vand got a reaction from billyg2355 in Platinum - who's buying?   
    Platinum just hit $904. With gold at $1250, this means the gold:plat ratio is 1.38, a level it has only touched briefly for 2 or 3 sessions in the last.. 100 years.
    That's too cheap. I'm buying (via ETF). 
    Anyone else?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24PLAT&p=W&st=1990-05-01&en=(today)&id=p77835177339
     
     
  15. Like
    vand got a reaction from LongScottSilver in Paying off the mortgage, one brick at a time   
    The long term plan is progressing very nicely indeed.
    Since writing this last year we've knocked off another 15% from the outstanding value of the mortgage.
    Additionally I've now fully paid off my (0%) credit card, so going forward we'll that bit more cash positive.
    We are still in the discounted period of our fixed rate, so there is no point in overpaying it more than 10%pa as they will charge us, so we pay as much as makes sense and then stockpile the rest of cash (of course some of it also goes into PMs). The discount rate ends on Sept 30th 2018 and then on 1st Oct I'm planning to make a single huge overpayment that will then bring the outstanding amount down to the size of a car loan.  All in all, I'm hoping to have the whole thing paid off within a year after that.
    Looking forward to the day we make that final payment.. I don't think it's too far off now!
  16. Like
    vand got a reaction from LongScottSilver in Paying off the mortgage, one brick at a time   
    Maybe a bit more, but I'm quite happy with my level of PM purchasing at the moment. And besides, who knows what other opportunities will be around in 18-24 months' time. Maybe the stock market will have crashed by then and it'll be a good time to start buying equities? Maybe the housing market will have crashed and it would be a chance to move to a bigger place, which we would like to do eventually regardless. I would also probably increase my pension contributions which should hopefully benefit me greatly for when the day starts to arrive that I start to think about cashing it out. Having the extra cashflow really does open up all sort of possibilities. I'm reminded of the saying that "poor people spend their income and invest anything that is left over" while rich people "invest their income and spend what is left over". That's not to denigrate those on lower income who find it challenging to find enough to invest, but it is about the mindset that you need to have if you want to eventually make your capital work just as hard for you as you did to to earn it.
  17. Like
    vand got a reaction from LongScottSilver in Paying off the mortgage, one brick at a time   
    The long term plan is progressing very nicely indeed.
    Since writing this last year we've knocked off another 15% from the outstanding value of the mortgage.
    Additionally I've now fully paid off my (0%) credit card, so going forward we'll that bit more cash positive.
    We are still in the discounted period of our fixed rate, so there is no point in overpaying it more than 10%pa as they will charge us, so we pay as much as makes sense and then stockpile the rest of cash (of course some of it also goes into PMs). The discount rate ends on Sept 30th 2018 and then on 1st Oct I'm planning to make a single huge overpayment that will then bring the outstanding amount down to the size of a car loan.  All in all, I'm hoping to have the whole thing paid off within a year after that.
    Looking forward to the day we make that final payment.. I don't think it's too far off now!
  18. Like
    vand got a reaction from LongScottSilver in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    OK, one look at the general stock indices shows me that they have totally taken leave of their senses. All risk has been disregarded and we have going into the blowoff irrational exuberance stage.
    I don't know how much longer this will go on, maybe we are very near to the top, but I can guarantee that when it all falls apart a lot of people will lose their shirt and the outcome will be epic.
  19. Like
    vand got a reaction from realbluegold in Today I bought.....   
    Silver very cheap in GBP right now. My spreadsheet doesn't lie -shows I just bought my cheapest batch since June 2016. 
  20. Like
    vand got a reaction from JCRJM in PMs vs Cryptos... A barometer of current sentiment   
    Haha. We are absolutely no where near to the bottom.
    Don't worry though, the rampers will convince themselves that today's little drop is "just a flesh wound."
  21. Like
    vand got a reaction from Jester in Should you stack gold with your silver?   
    I think it's a good idea to have both, but that said I have a long term plan in place which is based around stacking the cheaper metal, and with silver so cheap compared to gold I have been stacking silver almost exclusively. I'll split between both when the GSR falls below 70, and mainly stack gold only when the GSR falls below about 50.  It's opportunity cost; if I stack gold now, I forego the opportunity to stack very cheap silver.
     
    I don't think you should look at it as wanting your stack to be a certain ratio. My goal is wealth preservation and solid long term growth, and to do that you need to be flexible and accept that at times you will mainly hold one vs the other.
  22. Like
    vand got a reaction from Roy in Should you stack gold with your silver?   
    If you are worried about convertibility of your PMs back into cash for eg emergencies, then you are overexposed on your PM position and should just hold more cash. At least 3 months' worth of wages.
    Physical PMs are a long term store of value.  Don't increase the risk of not meeting your short term obligations in order to buy more PMs. 
    Financial wellbeing necessarily means getting away from living from paycheque to paycheque. Protecting yourself against a currency crisis is an important part of that, but protecting yourself against a hole in the roof is even more important.
     
  23. Like
    vand got a reaction from Roy in Should you stack gold with your silver?   
    If you are worried about convertibility of your PMs back into cash for eg emergencies, then you are overexposed on your PM position and should just hold more cash. At least 3 months' worth of wages.
    Physical PMs are a long term store of value.  Don't increase the risk of not meeting your short term obligations in order to buy more PMs. 
    Financial wellbeing necessarily means getting away from living from paycheque to paycheque. Protecting yourself against a currency crisis is an important part of that, but protecting yourself against a hole in the roof is even more important.
     
  24. Like
    vand got a reaction from Roy in Should you stack gold with your silver?   
    If you are worried about convertibility of your PMs back into cash for eg emergencies, then you are overexposed on your PM position and should just hold more cash. At least 3 months' worth of wages.
    Physical PMs are a long term store of value.  Don't increase the risk of not meeting your short term obligations in order to buy more PMs. 
    Financial wellbeing necessarily means getting away from living from paycheque to paycheque. Protecting yourself against a currency crisis is an important part of that, but protecting yourself against a hole in the roof is even more important.
     
  25. Like
    vand got a reaction from Roy in Should you stack gold with your silver?   
    If you are worried about convertibility of your PMs back into cash for eg emergencies, then you are overexposed on your PM position and should just hold more cash. At least 3 months' worth of wages.
    Physical PMs are a long term store of value.  Don't increase the risk of not meeting your short term obligations in order to buy more PMs. 
    Financial wellbeing necessarily means getting away from living from paycheque to paycheque. Protecting yourself against a currency crisis is an important part of that, but protecting yourself against a hole in the roof is even more important.