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vand

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Everything posted by vand

  1. So I just paid for delivery on my silver and I got a GBPEUR rate of 1.1 on Paypal. Our national stock is onsale. Make no mistake, GBP is heading straight to forex hell. Anyone with their wealth in GBP denominated assets is already 15% poor this year.. they just haven't realized.
  2. Even Rightmove, the most bullish of Indexes, and a proxy for seller expectations has taken a haircut in the last month: http://uk.businessinsider.com/rightmove-uk-house-prices-record-first-june-fall-since-2009-2017-6 UK -0.4% London -2.4% If you are heavily leveraged in UK property right now then god help you.
  3. Couple of good races at Royal Ascot to smash for EW arbs: Tues 4:20 - St James's Palace Stakes Fri 4:20 - Coronation Stakes So long as they remain 8 runners or more then you will easily be able to get each way arbs on these race
  4. Official inflation now 2.9%, 4 year high. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40259392 You know it's real when they start talking about it on Football forums.
  5. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37838087 Meanwhile our glorious overlord insists on keeping interest rates at 0.25% an printing currency as if its going out of fashion, because its in our best interest.
  6. I have eToro ads for Bitcoin and Ethereum all over my facebook feed. I think once they are pitching for the shoeshiners on social media then it's as sure a sign of a bubble top as you can get.
  7. I don't really understand how people are recommending the QB when it's basically a new coin with no meaningful history. By all means buy it if you like the look of it, but don't listen to any talk of "potential" because it's totally unproven. But I would say it's better to stick to the basics. Don't get carried away trying to chase potential - gold is primarily for insurance, not speculation.
  8. I'm gonna be conventional and say just get some 1oz coins. They're much more interesting than bars imo, command lower premium if you buy them from the right place, and offer the best risk/reward in terms of potential premium growth. Bars make more sense for US buyers looking to maximize their ounces.
  9. Platinum just hit $904. With gold at $1250, this means the gold:plat ratio is 1.38, a level it has only touched briefly for 2 or 3 sessions in the last.. 100 years. That's too cheap. I'm buying (via ETF). Anyone else? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24PLAT&p=W&st=1990-05-01&en=(today)&id=p77835177339
  10. OK, one look at the general stock indices shows me that they have totally taken leave of their senses. All risk has been disregarded and we have going into the blowoff irrational exuberance stage. I don't know how much longer this will go on, maybe we are very near to the top, but I can guarantee that when it all falls apart a lot of people will lose their shirt and the outcome will be epic.
  11. Depending on your precisely you draw the line, there is argument to be made that at the current price of $1295 we are currently ABOVE the very long term downtrend line that goes back to the 2011 peak. Next couple of sessions will be interesting and should confirm/deny it one way or another, either we hold here or even inch higher, in which case it would confirm the break of the downtrend... or we go back down (yet again).
  12. Don't make the mistake of thinking that the tail is wagging the dog. PMs prices are set in USD as the world reserve currency and it is the strength of the dollar which primarily provides head or tailwind for PMs. USD has fallen against the GBP but it has also fallen against the basket of currencies. GBP is just a sideshow in the overall scheme of things, and I doubt that the market really cares too much which party forms a government on Friday. FWIW I am anticipating a short term bounce in USD sooner rather than later, but also that we are at the start of a longer term downtrend that will see USD going much lower in the next few years.. although I think Sterling will also be quite weak, we had our cataclysmic year in 2016 from that point of view.
  13. 25oz ordered yesterday as I make a start on the 2nd thousand. Noticed that my average price was a quid or so higher than the previous few batches, so last months price drop has worked out very nicely for us disciplined stackers!
  14. USD price looking very good. Looks like it wants to have a go at $1300. Dollar looks more and more like it is entering a bear market every session that it fails to meaningfully rally.
  15. Nigel Marriot's blog is as good as any out there for political forecasting, athough his model is somewhat more pro-Con than most. https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/
  16. I think a Con majority of 70. Labour have had a better campaign than they could ever have expected which will prevent a landslide, but when push comes to shove we all know that Middle England doesn't really do socialism, and the electorate won't have forgotten how the parliamentary Labour party has been riddled with infighting and trying to usurp its leader for the last 18 months. I also think that, in today's social-media driven world where virtue signalling is the thing to do, it only drives "shy Tories" underground even more, and that, despite whatever adjustments they have made to their models since 2015, they are very likely to understate Con support ever more. The Left haven't engaged any serious debate, they just shout louder, so the Con supporters just go into their bunker, don't even bother to talk to pollsters, and instead do their talking in the voting booth. Also, recent terror attacks have focussed the mind... can you really imagine Diane Abbott dealing with a national terror alert?
  17. I definitely think that all the hot speculative money in the "anti-fiat" brigade has flooded into cryptos. The charts for most of them will look like your typical dotcom bust when all is said and done. One or two cryptos will no doubt survive and rise from the ashes, but the whole sector has to go through the bubble/crash for this to happen.
  18. Gold & silver vs base money, and vs Dow are the key measures I use to determine what I think is fair price. By these measures gold should be several orders of magnitude higher, but we know bull markets always exaggerate movements, so historical fair value is 8:1 on Dow:Gold, I would expect the forces that drive it to that level to continue drive it down much lower still. Dow:gold has been as low as 1:1 and as high as 45:1. Major macro trends tend to play out over a generation, not just a few years. Public sentiment should not be underestimated, either. You will know when gold is overpriced and it is time to get out and look for the next big macro trend because your Guardianista workmates will talking about how their precious metals ETF fund has doubled in the last year and how the're going to double every year for the next decade and how you "can't lose" when buying gold. Look at bitcoin action in the last 18 months - this is how market tops look. Silver? We have the complete opposite.
  19. People need to get their heads out of the FIAT mindset by letting GBP price determine your sentiment. If you are a stacker then your goal is to acquire OUNCES. Cost only matters in as much as it determines how many ounces you can purchase for your labour. I stack at the current price of £13.xx for the same reason that I stacked at £10, £11, £16, and why I'll continue to stack whether silver doubles or halves in the next few years - to accumulate more ounces as a means of insurance and preserving long term purchasing power. Also, let me assure you that when you COMMIT to making regular (eg monthly) purchases, you will inevitably catch some selloffs, and also some spikes, but over the long run it is remarkable how much it evens out, and then you have enough ounces that the next batch hardly affects your average stack price at all.
  20. It is turning. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40117132 Doesn't matter if interest rates are zero, prices cannot go up forever, and when they stop going up then usually the start going the opposite way. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_06/nw3m.gif.3ac2dec40cf53f9fd3ba0caf0c37dedf.gif
  21. Just buy what you can on an ongoing basis. Most of us think that silver is undervalued in the overall scheme of things, and we would still think that if it went up another 20% this year. That doesn't mean it can't get become more undervalued, though. If it goes up then you'll be glad that you bought some when it was cheaper. If it goes down then you can be glad that you are able to buy more oz's for your money. Or you could just procastinate and then finally rush in when it's £50 like the majority of johnny come latelys will do.
  22. I watched this documentary film on Netflix about the Minimalists - a couple of guys who have given a voice to the counter-consumerism trend. I have to say that this really chimes with me, and I suspect for many savers/stackers. You have to question the morality and sanity in the world when our lust for material wealth becomes so great that it becomes a source of dissatisfaction rather than a source of contentment. Food for thought.
  23. Has to be said that spot gold is looking rather strong - only a couple of % away from the recent highs in USD terms. Of course the dollar has fallen so this offsets quite a lot of gain in GBP but it is encouraging nonetheless. Thr best thing is that sentiment is still rather poor in the PM sector, as if nobody trusts the recent gains. This bodes very well for the next few weeks.
  24. Anyone who thinks that government subsidies make houses cheaper to buy needs a headcheck. All that Help To Buy has done is massively inflate the new build sector: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_05/Screenshot_20170525-124231.thumb.jpg.a47026f534dcc2a9af79ab232ba17f79.jpg Newbuild train wreck coming soon: http://www.bridgingandcommercial.co.uk/article-desc-12003_the-slow-moving-train-wreck-has-entered-the-station
  25. No matter how low they were polling at the start of the campaign, I always though that the Labour vote would firm up at some point and they would still get get over 200 seats, which looks likely to happen now. In addition, the Tory campaign has been pretty lacklustre. Too many personal attacks and the backlash against the "safe & secure" mantra that has been way too overused. Going into Election day, I expect the polls to continue narrowing up until the last 48hrs where we always seem to get the inevitable last minutes swing back to the Tories. May returned to Downing St but by no means the crushing landslide that seemed inevitable at the start of the campaign.