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Everything posted by vand

  1. So it looks like this major firm is about to go bust. Is this a canary in the coalmine for the UK economy? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42666275 It's almost a perfect modern-day version of von Mises' "Master Builder":
  2. Platinum - who's buying?

    In order of historic valuations vs gold: Palladium - hugely overpriced Silver - very underpriced Platinum - generationally underpriced.. as in over 3 standard deviations I expect both silver and platinum to outperform gold in the next bull market, which I think is just quietly nudging into 2nd gear.
  3. Platinum just hit $904. With gold at $1250, this means the gold:plat ratio is 1.38, a level it has only touched briefly for 2 or 3 sessions in the last.. 100 years. That's too cheap. I'm buying (via ETF). Anyone else? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24PLAT&p=W&st=1990-05-01&en=(today)&id=p77835177339
  4. Long term ratio of CRB to stocks: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24SPX&p=W&st=1957-01-01&id=p62573801128 Once in a generation opportunity?
  5. The chart should make for very pleasing viewing for commodities bulls. We have a beautiful 2 year base and now looking very good for completing that phase by taking out the neckline around 200 and beginning the advancing phase and officially a new bull market. Depending on how accurately you draw the support/resistance lines (or how hard you squint) it could be argued that we have already broken through.
  6. I think you are right. Silver is like a call on gold. When PMs starts to rise, silver will at first lag, but then gradually catch up then outperform during the bull phase, and ultimately massively outperform during the frothy bubbly stage.
  7. Nobody is talking about it, but the USD has fallen to new lows. This is the start of what will eventually become the next crisis, which will crush paper assets and send PMs into the stratosphere.
  8. Very difficult to see what precise form the next monetary system will take, but it is blindingly obvious that the Petrodollar has long since passed its "Best Before" date and is increasingly no longer fit for purpose; hence why we are seeing more bilateral agreements that cut out their US altogether. I do not have great confidence in GBP either, hence why I stack PMs.
  9. Will gold hit $1,500 this year?

    $1500 is only 12% away, so very doable, but I will always say that the market doesn't work to yours or my agenda and will do whatever it does regardless. I do firmly believe that having stacked through these tough times we will be handsomely rewarded when the worm turns and PMs come back into the spotlight.
  10. Of course, these bubbles are always initially driven by new technology. Dotcom gave widespread internet usage and paved the way for some great companies like Google & Amazon which really do change the way we do things. Blockchain will have applications and find its use as a better way of doing things. It's just that the market gets WAY ahead of itself and inevitable has to crash first to strip away all the hype before we're left to see what it can actually do for us in the future. At the moment its all pie in the sky hype - transactions between different parties will occur with our without blockchain. If blockchain can in time pave the foundation for additional security/anonymity then great, but life will carry on with our without it. For all the hoohaa, it hasn't figured out how to stop fakes on eBay, for example.
  11. Platinum - who's buying?

    Pt managed to tag $1000 from its low of $880 just over a month earlier. I've been trading it on the long side for a lot of the year and have made some small but useful profit, but I think it's time to start reducing my position and waiting for a pullback. Personally from a trading perspective I would rather be in Platinum as I think it represents better risk/reward than gold or even silver. Overall the Gold/Pt ratio is still very-stretched, and I think that buying on the dips this year will be a profitable strategy.
  12. Fakes on eBay. Who would've thought.
  13. The older you get you realise that the more the world changes the more it stays the same. Yesterday it was dotcom Today it's cryptos. Tomorrow it will be biotech or some other exciting venture. Plastics, commodities, tulips bulbs, precious metals... have all gone to the moon and then crashed as people realise that yes, there is something new here, but the world will continue turning and life will go on with our without, and it is very much a layer on top of what is already in place, never a complete replacement for it.
  14. This chart is about as bearish as you can get: - 3 year major topping H&S pattern - Downward sloping - Large left shoulder - Tiny right shoulder
  15. It looks to me like we've just seen the "bull trap" setup in Bitcoin where it touched 17k, now selling off again and threatening to make new lows.
  16. TL;DR. Of course it's a bubble. It's so blindingly obvious right now, never mind with the benefit of hindsight after it has all imploded. Nobody uses bitcoin to actually trade goods and services. It's all predicated on speculation that some idiot will be willing to pay more for it at some point in the future. Eventually you reach the greatest fool and there is nobody left who will buy. That is not to say that some of the technology isn't interesting or useful, but hey, even the tulip bulbs had some real utility.
  17. Are privy marks overdone?

    The risk/reward on buying Pandas has shifted now. The cheapest I can find them is goldsilver.be, which for a 2018 30g coin is 20.20E. By my calculation that is 46% above spot. Now look at the 2016 & 2017 Pandas, and you will see that they are roughly the same price. You can still easily buy them, and there has been absolutely zero premium appreciation. That tells me that the Panda bubble has well and truly popped; you're basically paying a 46% premium for fancy bullion.
  18. Silver mistakes - yours or others

    Biggest mistake is thinking you can stack bullion from trawling through Ebay listings. Don't bother - life's too short.
  19. Niue silver 1oz Roaring Lion

    Don't really have time for these coin-of-the-months. But if you like it, buy it - that's cool. It's just silver.
  20. Been looking at the current indexes with almost disbelief. On RSI & MACD, Stocks are more overbought than at any time in the last 30 years. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F8%2F2018&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=true&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=true&chartStyleToggle=true&state=11 Surely we are approaching a major, multi-year, possibly multi-decade high.
  21. Silver Monitoring Thread £ only.

    We've seen a very decent bounce in spot prices over the last 2 weeks. Wouldn't surprise me if we gave up some of those gains, such is the up 'n down nature of this phase of the market, but it looks like we've made a nice "higher low" which is all consistent with building a solid base for an eventual move higher. The GSR has also pulled back a bit, though silver still could still have a bit of short term upside in this respect. Feeling a lot happier that I picked up a bigger than usual order last month.
  22. stacking goals 2018

    Stacking is something that happens continuously in the background for me; the calendar flipping from Dec to Jan doesn't change anything. Goals are the same; rate of acquisition will depend on free cash flow, but should be similar to last 12 months.
  23. stacking goals 2018

    So you reckon that we're on the cusp of leaving this price range behind for good, but also reckon that spot could conceivably halve? Make up your mind!
  24. Queen's Beast Series

    43EUR here. https://www.celticgold.eu/en/queens-beasts-lion-2-oz-silver-coin-2016.html Min order is 500EUR though.
  25. Newbie Question re Coin Choices

    2016 & 2017 Pandas haven't done anything, though. IMO there are far too many series nowadays to be able to reliably pick something that is guaranteed to appreciate. Any Tom Dick or Harry can launch their own round. All the more reason to just stack what you like. If you get decent premium appreciation, then consider it a bonus.