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vand

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Everything posted by vand

  1. Do I have a strategy yet?

    Hey, don't worry. It's just human nature that when you are getting your teeth into something then you go all-in and live/eat/breath it. But that initial burst of enthusiasm will eventually pass and then you'll either stick with it long term at a sustainable level..or you won't. Ive only been stacking for 20 months and I need an entry on my calendar nowadays to remind me to make my monthly purchase, and otherwise get on with my life.
  2. Just a "barbarous relic"

    Try telling that to the rocket scientists at NASA: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/james-webb-space-telescopes-golden-mirror-unveiled Definitely can't do that with bitcoins.
  3. Firstly, if your answer is "never" then this thread is not for you! However if you view your PMs as an investment, then you should also consider when is a good time to sell them to invest in other asset classes. I personally think the stock market is horribly overvalued and that is the main reason why I am avoiding it in favour of PMs as an investment vehicle (not as an insurance/SHTF vehicle). But there will come a time, I believe, when the reverse becomes true and it is wise to favour stocks. I base this on historic Dow/Gold ratio. Currently the ratio sits at 16.5 My thoughts going forward are roughly something like this: Above 10 - avoid stocks; accumulate PMs only Between 7-10; buy both 4-7: Buy Stocks only 4: sell 33% of existing PM holdings; swap for stocks 3: sell 33% of remaining PM holdings; swap for stocks 2 or below: sell 50% of remaining PM holdings; swap for stocks Under these rules even in a blowoff bubble where we would get to Dow/Gold of 2, I would still hold 20% of the PMs I had ever accumulated. This would be the "insurance". And I suppose it could always go lower.. 1 or below in which case there would be further chance to sell at an even more extreme levels. What say others?
  4. Just a "barbarous relic"

    2oz used to coat 6.5msq on the James Webb, apparently - yes, I'm sure it could go even further if needed, we know one of the physical properties of gold it's malleability and ductility.
  5. Just a "barbarous relic"

    oops, this should probably go in the Gold forum! I'm sure a mod will be along shortly..
  6. Yes, timing is the trickiest part. It doesn't take a genius to look at some ratios and say what is cheap and what is expensive based on historical ranges, but the problem we all have as investors have is that our lifespan is finite while the market's is not, and it hardly ever works to the timescales that best suit us. That's why my strategies are based around buying/selling/swapping in chunks; never all in one go. You will never consistently be able to pick market tops and bottoms. But if you are consistent and disciplined in your approach then I do believe that it's possible to be buying/selling at what will prove relatively good points in the cycle. Shares are over-valued and the bull market is so old now, but in all honesty who would be surprised if this continued for another 24 months? How about 36-48 months? It's has defied logic and valuations for so long now why shouldn't it do it for a while longer? In the grand scheme of things I believe that we will see the downside of the cycle before the end of my working lifetime, so does it really matter? Sentiment is another thing. At the bottom of a bear market that has already fallen 80% nobody bats an eyelid when the market bounces 20%; I mean, who cares when you've just lost 80%?! But when there are new highs made at the top of bull markets everyone gets massively excited when the market notches another 5% all time high.. My point is that sentiment all depends on how long you have been invested in the market and your entry point. Last time I checked a 20% return was much better than a 5% return, but that is clouded by what the market has done before, regardless of whether you were invested in it or not. another way to look at asset allocation.. (Look at how well the Bonds & Stocks vs PMs negatively correlate over a 10 year return..)
  7. More evidence of the reversal: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-house-prices-fall-for-the-first-time-in-eight-years-as-home-owners-hit-by-double-blow-a3646696.html
  8. The thing is that most of the posts from long-timers on TSF revolve around graded and high premium stuff. I think there are a couple of reasons for this: 1. They have obviously been around for a long time and really know their stuff when it comes to numismatics. Most people, even most people who own PMs have next to no knowledge of this tiny segment of the market. 2. This may be a bit controversial, but I think there is some truth in it... Basically, silver bugs have been largely disappointed for a LONG time now. Bear market for 2011 to late 2015 and then bouncing around near this level for near 2 years since. During such bear markets you get a LOT of people falling by the wayside as they lose interest. This is what makes it a bear market. I think the people who are now into graded stuff have done it largely as a response to a long period of falling/low spot prices. Let's face it, if silver just went up and up for many years there would be much more interest and excitement about basic bullion silver and much less incentive to get everything slabbed as a way of maximizing premium.
  9. Today I bought.....

    That's what I call proper stacking. Nice going. Can't fault you for getting involved at both ends of the market, it's good to have all bases covered. I stack physical silver bullion and consider that my bread and butter but also have exposure to platinum and gold-mining shares.
  10. Today I bought.....

    Are there any common or garden variety stackers still around? Or have you all progressed to slabbed numismatic collecting snobs? I only ask because, well because basic silver is very cheap at the moment, but judging by the posts on this thread nobody gets excited unless it comes in a case and has a mintage in single figures.. (I just bought my monthly 20-something ounces of boring silver FWIW).
  11. Palladium

    +5% today. Just sayin'. Shame I don't hold any.
  12. Platinum just hit $904. With gold at $1250, this means the gold:plat ratio is 1.38, a level it has only touched briefly for 2 or 3 sessions in the last.. 100 years. That's too cheap. I'm buying (via ETF). Anyone else? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24PLAT&p=W&st=1990-05-01&en=(today)&id=p77835177339
  13. Another dyed in the wool BTLer who thinks that the UK property can continue to outstrip general inflation and wages ad infintum. The yields you talk about are only available on s^£tholes that nobody would actually want to live in, with high maintenance costs and high probability of voids or problem tenants.
  14. Platinum - who's buying?

    Well the Plat:Gold ratio is at an eye-watering 1.40 now! I have bought back into Plat (& more!), and also back into GDX. The selloff was pretty brutal. Will probably add on any further weakness. Looking for a move higher over the next 4-6 months.
  15. Kookaburra 2008 V's 2018.

    Like them both. Like them all, but them I'm biased as I own more kooks than anything else. They are a classic series and which year you rank higher is just personal preference.
  16. OK, one look at the general stock indices shows me that they have totally taken leave of their senses. All risk has been disregarded and we have going into the blowoff irrational exuberance stage. I don't know how much longer this will go on, maybe we are very near to the top, but I can guarantee that when it all falls apart a lot of people will lose their shirt and the outcome will be epic.
  17. London property is still grossly overpriced. If you think the recent softening in the top end of the market is makes it now a good investment then you're deluded. It will only return to sensible yields and prices when there is a full blown crash that wipes at least 40% off the average price.
  18. Agreed. Anyone getting into BTL is 5 years late. The numbers don't add up. Prices are now falling in London and it will ripple out to the other regions. the next economi downturn, which may be closer than anyone realises, will send the overleveraged into a financial abyss.
  19. We're not there just yet, but my long term strategy which I insisted on when we bought our flat 5 years ago is now closer to the end that it is to the beginning. When we bought our flat in 2011 we paid exactly £250k for it and we had already saved up 20% deposit. We got what I considered a fairly priced place at that time, but remember than lending was very tight during that year and we certainly had to jump through a few hoops in order to make it all happen. We could also have stretched ourselves and got a bigger place, but frankly I didn't want to. Our plan was always to buy modestly and overpay the mortgage on it as much as we could so we could own it outright within 10 years. Now, 5 years on, we are well over half way there.. our monthly overpayments bought the loan down a little each month, but we did not readjust our payments, we kept putting a fixed amount in each month, so as well as the principle coming down, the interest would come down even more every month. 5 years ago we were paying £600/month in interest, today we are paying around just £250/month. We've been fortunate enough to have stable employment during this time and a few pay rises along the way - nothing spectacular, but year on year it all adds up and life becomes a little easier. In the last year I've found another useful income stream, so we the day that we make the final payment will hopefully be even sooner than we initially planned. I just share this because I feel it just shows you the value of putting in a long term plan and sticking to it. Without taking action when we did we'd no doubt be lining some landlord's pockets with £16k/year. Not that there's anything wrong with renting - but if you're renting because you don't have a long term plan then you are indeed just perpetually throwing good money away and wasting the part of your life that you spent earning it. I've certainly squandered a lot of money and opportunity in my youth (who hasn't?) but as you get a bit older and wiser you learn patience take a longer term view on things. We've lived well within our means and sacrificed plenty of little luxuries along the way, but also we have found interests that have been life enhancing which are (almost) free. All this, and I still plan on stacking PMs over the next few years, in fact I would say that the mortgage plan coming to maturity has indeed given us the financial freedom to invest in PMs, as well as a degree of financial security in other ways too.
  20. Today I bought.....

    Silver very cheap in GBP right now. My spreadsheet doesn't lie -shows I just bought my cheapest batch since June 2016.
  21. I was just watching a few youtube videos and the comments on them are a pretty good barometer of current sentiment for both PMs and Cryptos. Well, you can read them for yourself, but let's just say that one is current reviled and the other is hailed as the next coming. As a contrarian I think this is a brilliant indication of where the johnny come latelys are and aren't parking their money. have a read, eg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKrSWZXK1wU
  22. So I just paid for delivery on my silver and I got a GBPEUR rate of 1.1 on Paypal. Our national stock is onsale. Make no mistake, GBP is heading straight to forex hell. Anyone with their wealth in GBP denominated assets is already 15% poor this year.. they just haven't realized.
  23. An interesting synopsis of the Volatility trade from a Hedge Fund manager: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/business/dealbook/market-volatility.html?_r=0 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5581f17ee4b01f59c2b1513a/t/561dc6bfe4b0ee35464228f2/1444791999826/Artemis_Q32015_Volatility-and-Prisoners-Dilemma.pdf Interesting how he points out the role of central banks has shifted in the last 5 years from "clean up the mess" to "pre-emptive management".
  24. Haha. We are absolutely no where near to the bottom. Don't worry though, the rampers will convince themselves that today's little drop is "just a flesh wound."
  25. Well it's up 1.5% today and clawed its way back to $1.34. Almost nosebleed stuff. Stronger GBP = cheaper PMs!