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Everything posted by vand

  1. Silver Monitoring Thread £ only.

    The greatest myth in investing and trading is that price action can be explained by events ex post. The truth is usually the opposite. Price action moves in a way that largely predicts future events.
  2. 1/3rd of high st restaurants are in loss: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-restaurant-chains-losing-money-prezzo-jamies-italian-high-street-crisis-a8236911.html
  3. Not all is well on the High Street. There was a post-recession bounce, but now the downturn is setting in again. Maplin & Toys R US gone into administration. It makes you wonder what is the point of bricks and mortar retail outlets now. Soon the High St will just be filled with bad coffee chains, betting shops, estate agents, and fast food outlets.
  4. Mrs vand & I are expecting a new family member, so I'm looking for a used car. W what are your recommendations? Budget ideally around £3-4k, but could go a little higher if I find something I really like. It will mainly be used for getting around London. Annual mileage probably not more than 4000 miles. I was thinking about small hatchback. I'm not a massive car enthusiast, but would like something that looks decent, drives well and is reasonable to run & insure. Was think something along the lines of: - VW Polo - Mercedes B class - Ford Fiesta Any experiences with any of these? Or other recommendations?
  5. It's not cheap... Copper spot is about 20c per troy oz, so you're looking about a 500% premium.
  6. Gold Miner Picks

    Still just playing with GDX & GDXJ, but miner have disappointed for the last year. They can and will explode higher at some point, but these markets are designed to take as few people with them as possible.
  7. OK, one look at the general stock indices shows me that they have totally taken leave of their senses. All risk has been disregarded and we have going into the blowoff irrational exuberance stage. I don't know how much longer this will go on, maybe we are very near to the top, but I can guarantee that when it all falls apart a lot of people will lose their shirt and the outcome will be epic.
  8. Brexit.

    All Governments are bureaucrats, non more so that the EU, so I have no idea why anyone expected anything else at this stage of proceedings. I don't know if we'll be able to buy silver from Estonia at the same prices that we currently are able to, but I think there will always be loopholes that can be exploited. We should look at whatever agreements that are eventually put in place a new opportunities rather than worry about the loss of current ones.
  9. I've stretched the budget out a little and settled on a 2011 Mercedes C-Class Estate 220 Diesel, 128k on the clock for £6k. It's practical and of course I can't deny the Merc badge was a lure. I think it's a great buy for the price, but time will tell. Insurance & tax will be a shade under £900/year. Should be picking up the keys next week. That said, I think the "Superior German engineering" thing is largely an outdated misconception now. Many other carmakers have been just as good if not better in all measurable aspects of engineering for at least 10 years, and offer better VFM too, of course.
  10. ... and now just like that FTSE and DAX have made new lows. UNLIKE last month, this latest drop hasn't even made any sort of news. Complacency is stiff rife, which is why it is far from over.
  11. There is going to be a rude awakening. The FTSE dipped below 7100 in futures market, just a mere whiff off last month's lows.. meanwhile the mainstream financial press are completely oblivious and treating it like the correction is done and dusted. 9 years of bull market means that COMPLACENCY is rife. Paul Tudor Jones is the latest to say what we all know: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/here-are-highlights-from-paul-tudor-jones-interview-with-goldman-sachs.html
  12. This is a good question and one that we should be asking. However, I think the idea of silver leading gold is a misnomer. The tail doesn't wag the dog. Gold leads, and silver lags and most of the time underperforms. If you are bearish on one you must be bearish on the other, and vice versa. So as long as the technical picture for gold remains bullish then I remain a PM bull, even if silver is failing to confirm (of course it would be better for confirmation). An extended price drop doesn't change my core accumulation strategy, but it does change my trading strategy and I would not be trying to trade it on the long side until the technicals look better. Bear markets should be welcomed as a change to buy more cheaply, whether its PMs, stocks or anything else. I am an accumulator of PMs at anything above Dow/Gold of 10, a holder betwen 5-10, and a net seller below 5.
  13. Nice vid. I would say I am roughly: 33% stacker 33% saver 33% investor 3% collector :-) And like BB, I don't really consider myself a prepper. I probably should, but if I were to put on that hat, PMs would be a lot further down on the list of priorities.
  14. Another leg down? Look how WEAK the FTSE is..
  15. Remember what precious metals are first and foremost: a safehaven asset, distinct from stocks which are risk assets, and bonds, which are somewhere in between. PMs are the asset class that correlate most negatively with stocks. Don't get too hung up on the immediate direction of interest rates; the tail does not wag the dog. Stocks do most well and PMs do poorly in long periods of economic expansion, and the opposite is true when there is economic chaos. That does NOT mean every time stocks go up, gold goes down or vice versa, but just that one tends to underperform the other at different points in the business cycle. Because of this, having some PMs in your portfolio is sometimes recommended as a good diversifier to smooth out the bumps and provide better risk-adjusted returns,.
  16. Couple of bad restaurant chains in trouble too: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43232491
  17. It's a myth that PMs do poorly when interest rates rise. Why are interest rates rising? Because inflation is rising. And PMs are a historical hedge against inflation.
  18. I reckon the black market is pretty tax efficient
  19. Warren Buffet move

    There is nothing at all inconsistent in what Buffett says: Investing is all about RISK VS REWARD. The Reward is higher future wealth in exchange for present consumption. The Risk is that that desired outcome might not materialise. Nobody has a crystal ball, all investments carry some degree of risk. Companies are the wealth-generating engine of capitalism and therefore have the most capacity for growth Monthly cost-averaging is a risk-free mechanical method of outperforming the market over the long term Future returns are a function of current price. You cannot buy yesterday's growth. The more expensive a market at any given point the lower its returns will be going forward over an infinite time horizon. There are times when the market gets expensive such that the risk/reward on offer is unacceptable. If you cannot fund anything worth buying then do not go fully invested and wait for better opportunities. Nobody is holding a gun to your head and forcing you to buy stocks. The line trotted out "I don't care about current valuations because I'm buying for the long term" is a very poor reason to buy and is usually the sort of response we see when uninformed investors jump in near major market peaks.
  20. I get what you are saying, but it is a sad reflection on society that the businesses that can still thrive on the high st are all driven by by the most immediate of consumption needs and/or cheap money. The point of high st eating was to feed yourself in between your shopping, not to BECOME the shopping. Also, as scuzzle correctly noted, there is no demand to support the number of charity shops; they exist because of very favourable tax breaks.
  21. Warren Buffet move

    He's increased his cash position by 35% to $116bn, so is a net seller of stocks. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-26/warren-buffett-isnt-buying-why-should-anyone-else
  22. In the UK we have mildly overvalued stocks and horrendously overvalued houses. In the US they have mildly overvalued houses and horrendously overvalued stocks. Both economies will go tits up because of these bubbles, but at least nobody is forced to rearrange their lives or puts off having children because stocks are expensive. Overpriced real estate is going to get crushed in the coming bond bear market. The days of walking down your high street and every other shop is an estate agent will be consigned to the dustbin of history.
  23. We are at the precipice of a shift in the direction of many major global trends that have been ongoing for as long as anyone can remember: - The bond market really looks to have topped out and is reversing. Last year the US 10yr went under 1.5%. Think how absurd that is. Today it stands at a near 4-yr high on 2.8%. - Central banks are beginning to tighten in the (false) belief that the economy is strong enough to stand on its own 2 feet. - The USD is in the early stage of a bear market - Global stock markets, and the US in particular have been in "irrational exuberance" mode since Trump won the election. The SP500 has not fallen more than 3% in all that time. It is a remarkable and unprecedented run of low volatility, but that parabolic move looks to be breaking down. - Commodities have NEVER been cheaper vs stocks, but the CRB/Dow ratio look like it is ready to reverse How far any of the newly developing trends run for to reverse these extremes we have yet to see, but there are more reasons than ever to position yourself to benefit from the newly emerging trends - that includes holding PMs, paying off debt, less exposure to equities, more exposure to commodities, and holding plenty cash to benefit from the new opportunities that will when these new trends really get going. US 10yr note: Bond market: https://www.ft.com/content/6fe195ca-f781-11e7-8715-e94187b3017e
  24. The UK housing market could well have peaked. https://www.standard.co.uk/front/london-leads-house-price-plunge-into-the-red-zone-as-market-records-worst-performance-since-a3764586.html London -4.3% YOY! The FTSE listed housebuilders usually act as a canary in the coalmine and have also been underperforming in the last few months... these stocks will be smashed and make prime shorting material in the next donwturn.
  25. Platinum just hit $904. With gold at $1250, this means the gold:plat ratio is 1.38, a level it has only touched briefly for 2 or 3 sessions in the last.. 100 years. That's too cheap. I'm buying (via ETF). Anyone else? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24PLAT&p=W&st=1990-05-01&en=(today)&id=p77835177339