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vand

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  1. In reality they will still be running negative real rates. Do the central bankers have the balls to actually get ahead of the curve and raise rates to real positive rates? I highly doubt it, or if they do we will see 1981-style economic pain.
  2. The more things change the more they stay the same.. I've been trying to drum up some interest for commodities and you'd think that on a silver forum there would be some enthusiasm for this, but most people only see the pain of the previous 10-20 years. Being a contrarian investor is by definition getting excited about something that nobody else could give a fig about.
  3. gentlemen's wager, sure your scenario is possible.. however I am focussing more on what I think is the best place to park your money for the next 20 years. I think we are seeing generational cheapness in commodities and they will re-evaluate many times over compared to stocks, bonds and real estate over the rest of my life..
  4. The new commodities bull market is waking up. We are still in a long basing period, but the 2-year CRB chart looks awesome now. There will be very good returns in the next decade for those who have been buying at these generational lows
  5. Massive price rally on gold and silver today

    The strength in the sector yesterday Could be a sign that the next move over the $1360 gold level is going to hold and be the one that finally propels us towards new multi-year highs. It fits in with the overall narrative; the CRB index has already broken to a new 3 year high and the chart is looking awesome
  6. Silver lows, what's the evidence ?

    I don't really think this tells us anything other than that most people don't have a clue what the metal cost of silver is. $5 is a throwaway amount so I'm not surprised that some people would trade it for a "mystery silver coin". If you up the stakes to, say, $100 and put up 10 or 15oz of silver I bet there are very few who would take the silver because $100 is non-trivial to your average pizza delivery guy.
  7. GBPUSD $1.436 and now completely recovered all the post-Brexit weakness. They markets have done precisely what they are supposed to do; make the UK cheaper and hence more competitive during a time of uncertainty.
  8. All good stuff. Everyone likes to think that they're smart enough to buy a bargain and sit on it until it becomes fully valued, but the reality is that even if you are able to recognise something is a bargain very few people have the conviction to buy and continue buying while everything else is going up and then have the bottle to not sell it all just as the party is getting going. this is true of any market, not just silver. when a market has been so beaten down for so long people just aren't interested and will find any reason to avoid it.
  9. Bumping the pension thread. I got my latest pension statement through and the pot is now up to 60k, of which 35k is cash, 10k in JPM commodities fund, and 15k in various other equity funds. The big cash position will be put to use when we are in the midst of the next bear market. Really happy with this. Between mine & employer contributions I'm putting in about 16% of my salary each year. None us us know for sure what the future holds for pension funds, but I know I'd always rather have a bigger pot than not..
  10. One of the truisms of markets is that it doesn't really matter what "event" you pin on a price action. It happened. And it would have got there with or without whatever the latest geopolitical headline the press want to write up their stories with. There are much larger forces at work that move markets that what we can see or comprehend.
  11. Silver lows, what's the evidence ?

    We haven't gone below the 2015 lows so it supports the theory that we are at least not still in a bear market, in which case we must be in the early stages of a bull market or at the very least a long consolidation period. IMO the gold market supports this theory much better. Silver tends to lag gold during this early phase of the bull.. we saw this in 2001-2004. Regardless of whether we are in a bull or bear market, does it change the reason for holding physical PMs? My answer is no. I hold PMs because I like the safety blanket they provide in a profligate and unpredictable world. The day that I see governments and the public becoming truly fiscally responsible is likely the day I think that I do not want to hold more precious metals.
  12. Silver lows, what's the evidence ?

    From a fundamental perspective, any economics textbook will tell you that production costs do NOT put a floor on the short-term price. In the long run production will contract until a new equilibrium is found. That is why I prefer a technical-analysis approach. You can put support levels in and say that while price does not go below this level then I believe we are in an uptrend (bull market) and therefore work on the assumption that we have seen the lows. If the support is violated then it invalidates this theory.
  13. Gold Short Term Investment?

    might want to watch this first
  14. How do you track your stack?

    Now there's a project... if I ever find the time!
  15. Something to put your stack into perspective

    There are lies, damn lies, and statistics