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vand

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  1. Gold / Silver Ratio

    We came close in Feb 2016 when the GSR was 83.66, but my model did not generate an extreme reading in the GSR, which I think we may still get at some point. Back then it would have needed to hit 86.94. The current reading is 87.26. This is the price that is 2.3 standard deviations away from the 71 month simple moving average. If and when the GSR hits this ratio then my model tells me to sell all my gold and swap it for silver. The last time this signal was triggered was Oct-08.
  2. I think the word used to describe people who buy and sell stuff is, which is... TRADER. Like it or not that's what you are. Just like any venture, there is a skill to it. You have traders who are successful and manage to turn a profit, and many who are not successful and don't make any money from it.
  3. 2oz silver Queens beast coins

    When the series was launched my reservations were about the market (typically 50% above spot) and that they came from the Royal Mint and were therefore likely to develop milkspots. However since the 2nd coin in the series, the Griffin, these have been just about the cheapest 2oz coins on Goldsilver.BE, so I have amassed quite a collection of them purely for weight. However, all mine, at least, seem in good nick, so I'm happy to continuing the stack them. I don't have may Lions as they are the most expensive, but everything else after is cheap, and the designs are really good. I agree the Bull doesn't look that great, but that's 1 poor design in 5 so far, and you only have to wait another 6 months before the next one.
  4. Gold / Silver Ratio

    Nothing new to see here, really.. the long term average is about 63-64. Obviously there are times when it moves much higher and times when it moves much lower, but I consider this to be fair value. Right now at 80 GSR, favouring silver is a no-brainer, but being contrarian and buying what is cheap is remarkably rare even amongst stackers, and many who preferred stacking gold see the current GSR as a reason to stick to gold rather than stacking what is cheap. Do not fret. Once this bull market gets moving, silver is going to catch up and then some. Remember back between 2001-2004 silver lagged gold badly but then revalued much higher. Same will happen this time.
  5. Is silver stacking a loss leader?

    Richest Man In Babylon is a classic which everyone should read.. wrt “silver as an investment”, it depends. An investment is the exchange of underconsumption in the present with the expectation of higher and more valuable consumption in the future, and I would say that PMs have historically fulfilled this role. But timeframe is the issue. I would be supremely confident that my grandchildren’s grandchildren would be able to take PMs passed down from previous generations and convert them to consumption or other forms of wealth, but I am not confident you can say the same for Apple shares, US treasuries, bitcoins or any other asset class. OTOH, absent an imminent economic crisis (which is another discussion), PMs are least Likely for short term re-evaluated higher as they have the least potential to produce economic output and create wealth, which is the domain of higher risk but higher reward assets.
  6. Chris Aaron agrees with me that the Bond market is THE thing to be watching right now
  7. The underpinnings of Everything We Know is looking very shaky indeed now, as Bonds continue to fall and yields continue to rise; the US 10yr is now at 2.92% http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=BX%3ATMUBMUSD10Y&insttype=Bond The bond market is now very clearly signalling a long term change in direction and a period of higher inflation and higher interest rates lie ahead. It will be a question of "when" not "if" this feeds through to main st. If that 10y takes out the 2014 high just above 3% then it could easily move up to near 4% relatively quickly.
  8. AAPL, as the leading bellweather stock, encapsulates everything you need to know about this market, and indeed this economy. Yes, the did fantastic things since 2004 to revolutionize consumer electronic goods, but since the iPad they have not done anything revolutionary, just refined what they already have, same as Microsoft did 15-20 years ago. Now all their marketing is about lifestyle etc. The technological driving forces behind the last economic cycle have all played out, and it's all getting very long in the tooth now. WRT to deflation.. I will keep an open mind. True deflation only happens when there is contraction of the money supply. This is what happened in the great depression as banks went bust and they were tied to the gold standard (There is a great Milton Friedman video on YT about this). I think there will a prevelant feeling of FEAR gripping everyone, not just in the markets, but in general, and people will be very reluctant to spend money on anything non-discretionary, but perhaps that will be mistaken as deflation. It's not.
  9. Full silver stack to date

    I agree. There are times when you should be going overweight in an asset class just because its so cheap compared to historical ratios, and right now, precious metals, and Silver and Platinum are the outstanding buys of all investible assets vehicles imo. Only last year oil hit some record ratios and anyone brave enough to have applied the same philosophy would have been very well rewarded since.
  10. I think there is zero chance of a deflationary event. I think you've been listening to Mike Maloney too much, who in turn has been listening to too much Harry Dent, who is wedded to his deflationary thesis as he believes everything is demographically driven. Deflation is not a pre-requisite before hyperinflation. The central banks can always create more money supply, and absent people willing to spend their money, governments will certainly step in and act at the buyer of last resort. Liquidity will leave paper assets and flood into commodities and real assets, which will drive inflation. or.. taking an alternative spin on it, you could argue that we have already undergone a deflationary event... in commodities
  11. Big Stack Smuggling

    The current situation in Venezuela: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/12/venezuelan-middle-class-economic-crisis-pawn-shops This is what happens when govt abuses their power to the nth degree. Total destruction of the currency and systemic collapse. Can you imagine how much better off the average person would be had they amassed just a few hundred oz of silver and/or half a dozen oz of gold while times were good?
  12. Bond watch.. Markets may be clawing back some the recent losses, but that US 10yr yield is continuing to spike to fresh highs. I think that if it continues it's inevitable that sooner rather than later the market will cry uncle and sell off again, probably to fresh lows. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Bond&symb=BX%3ATMUBMUSD10Y&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F12%2F2018&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=3&x=45&y=6&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11 I really can't stress how important I think this is. Everything we have seen in the last 30 years has been predicated on the bond market and cheap money. If that trend is reversing then it is very much a paradigm change, and one that most people aren't even aware of.
  13. Greenspan had a lot more ammo at his disposal during his tenure to keep kicking the can down the road; the bond bull market was only a few years old, so he had a lot space for a few rate-cutting cycles, and the US economy was in much better overall long term health - smaller deficits, younger population etc. That's the problem for Powell today.. he's basically coming in at the end of the party just as the music is about to stop. I think Yellen will go down as one of the luckiest chairs in history, in that she came in after the last crisis and got out of dodge just in time before the next one.
  14. Can't discount it, but it everything comes to an end, and the longer the expansion the worse the malinvesments get and the greater the bust!
  15. Is silver stacking a loss leader?

    If you buy a 2 ounce coin for £39 then you are not stacking for oz.