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vand

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  1. The money velocity thing is very interesting. It's a big piece in the jigsaw of why inflation is so low despite all the currency creation. All that we can definitely say is that it can't go to zero, so sooner or later it will rise. I think Mike Maloney's latest video in Hidden Secrets of Money makes this point very well. At some point the money will come out of hiding abd be spent, and then the SHTF.
  2. I'm not even half-arsed if they don't come down. It's not like there's a shortage of other very nice coins to take your pick from. As a comparison, it's easily possible to pick up 2016 kooks and koalas which supposedly have mintages of 500,000 & 300,000, and they are well regarded coins with a long history, so I really think that the market for limited mintages is probably near saturation. If everyone released "limited" mintages coins then there would be no shortage at all.. if you know what I mean.
  3. Physical PMs are firstly an insurance policy, secondly a store of value, and only after these roles should they be considered an investment, so do not worry too much about your entry point or if it is up or down by 10% next year, just buy a sensible amount consistently and then be grateful if gold has NOT tripled a few years, for if it has then you know some very bad things are unfolding in the world.
  4. Horse racing each way arbing, as explained in the Cheltenham thread. Very good race tomorrow 2:50 Warwick.
  5. The currencies have behaved in a "buy the rumour sell the fact" pattern for the last few months. Things are turning around - USD looks like it has topped out and is heading back down, which should act as a strong tailwind for PMs in the next 12-24 months, especially if the stock market also has a wobble (or worse).
  6. I watched this documentary film on Netflix about the Minimalists - a couple of guys who have given a voice to the counter-consumerism trend. I have to say that this really chimes with me, and I suspect for many savers/stackers. You have to question the morality and sanity in the world when our lust for material wealth becomes so great that it becomes a source of dissatisfaction rather than a source of contentment. Food for thought.
  7. FWIW I think the floor on GBPUSD looks to be about $1.20. The long term moving averages are flattening out, and we should move higher over the next 24 months, but it will be a slow climb out of the pit.
  8. Don't be mugs.. 1 mil is a very high mintage. These will be easily buyable at spot+£2 once the hype has died down.
  9. If it was ONE coin only then I would stack the cheapest - Maples, as the primary role of PMs is to preserve purchasing power over the long term. Any stack that places premium appreciate above this is one that is more of an investment than an insurance policy which is putting the cart before the horse.
  10. Can't help you with that. I buy from them regularly and use their vaulting service to batch many orders together. It adds up to massive savings on P&P over the course of the year.
  11. Celticgold have 2013 Maples for an amazing spot +13.85% https://www.celticgold.eu/en/maple-leaf-1oz-silver-coin-2013.html Bite their hands off and buy all you can at that price.
  12. This is absolutely worth watching to give perspective on the ramifications of the current net record short position in the COT numbers.
  13. As Douvan showed, nothing is "nailed on" in horse racing or sport in general; odds are remarkably accurate when taken over long run and many events. The market had given Douvan a 78% chance of winning that race.. so really it's not such a big surprise that this was his 1-in-5 failure, and hardly the great sporting upset that some commentators are saying. The guy who lost £500,000 on Douvan.. nobody really knows exactly what other bets he had on, and it is entirely possible, even highly likely that he had engineered other bets on other horses who were better value and therefore profited anyway. Why do I suspect this? That's what literally all professional punters do, and that was a perfect race in which to do it, and that he did it in the Arkle the previous day suggest to me that he was betting big in these dirty each-way races.
  14. I had £20 EW on him. Unfortunately I was seeking the extra place rather than mugging the win, and had hedged everything off at the exchange, so even when I "won" £340 in the bookie, they of course didn't know that I had lost that much at the exchange. The extra place races have been just too big to cover with 24-25 runners without taking significant matching losses, so instead I've just focussed on arbing the suitable races (Arkle, Champion Chase, JLT). I've managed to hit the lower end of my profit target and there is another day to go, but was kinda hoping to make 2 or 3 times as much TBH, but I guess it is not easy smashing the bookies, otherwise everyone would be doing it.
  15. Grocery costs have gone up, for sure. I don't know about 10%, but I would guess it's probably 4-5%. And, of course, whenever you go abroad now your GBP doesn't buy nearly as much as it used to.