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Bumble

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Everything posted by Bumble

  1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/20/detectorist-strikes-gold-largest-nugget-found-england/ Not exactly on the scale of the ones Australians turn up, but still.
  2. Historically, the Fed do not like to change interest rates within 2 to 3 months of an election, because it makes them look partisan. So, if rates are going to be cut, the summer is the last opportunity. Not many people are talking about GBP, but by the end of the year there will be a Labour government in the UK, and this is not Tony Blair's Labour. Almost anything this government wants to do will send GBP plunging downwards. I honestly would not be surprised to see GBP below parity with USD within 3 years. Now is the time to get your savings out of GBP and into something else. Even USD would be a much better choice. CHF might be even better. Gold should be good. US blue chip stocks should be OK.
  3. The recent run-up in gold has pushed it above the upper Bollinger band for three days running now, which is unusual. Also the RSI is technically showing overbought. I wouldn't be surprised to see a short term correction now, like we had in early December. I remain bullish on the year and expect to see further all-time highs.
  4. Supercore inflation leaves out food, fuel and housing costs.
  5. Asset performance. Numbers in parentheses are negative.
  6. Uranium did well in 2023 and may well continue to do so. I own some Yellowcake (YCA.L) and some of the Sprott Uranium miners fund (URNP.L).
  7. The gold price stays within the Bollinger bands nearly all the time. We have just bounced off the bottom. RSI is below 50 and the MACD is negative, so momentum is downward. These things have little predictive value though. The price could slide down the band or bounce back up to the top. On a macro basis, things are more positive. The Fed will not let a recession happen in the run-up to a US election. If the economy turns down, they will reverse the monetary tightening, even if inflation is still above 2%. That will be negative for the USD and positive for gold and crypto.
  8. For what it's worth, I'm pretty optimistic about gold in the coming year. Also bitcoin. I'm very bearish GBP. It's nice to be able to get 4% to 5% interest in a savings account, but right now I wouldn't want that savings account to be denominated in GBP.
  9. I'd not come across Premier African Minerals before. It is a microcap company (about £60M) and its assets are in Zimbabwe and Mozambique. That alone would make me run for cover. Some African jurisdictions are fine. I would say Botswana, Namibia and Morocco are investable. I would avoid South Africa, at least for the present. West African countries like Mali and Burkina Faso used to be considered OK until the recent coup/uprising in Niger. The Democratic Republic of Congo is an important mining jurisdiction but carries a fair amount of risk. Centamin (CEY.L) in Egypt is a company I have owned in the past: it used to pay a nice dividend.
  10. If you are looking at dividend stocks on London, it is worth checking out Rio Tinto (RIO.L), BHP (BHP.L), Glencore (GLEN.L), Aviva (AV.L), Woodside Energy (WDS.L), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L), British American Tobacco (BATS.L), Imperial Brands (IMB.L), Legal and General (LGEN.L), National Grid (NG.L), SSE (SSE.L), Land Securities (LAND.L), British Land (BLND.L), Lloyds Banking (LLOY.L), Barclays (BARC.L) or almost any of the major housebuilders. If you see a corporate bond with a very high yield, it is probably high for a reason, i.e. the market is pricing in a significant level of risk.
  11. This is the time of year when Saxo publish their predictions for the coming year. Previous years' predictions have proved to be almost entirely wrong. Last year's were entirely wrong. But for what it's worth, here are their predictions for 2024. 1. The oil price rises to $150 per barrel and the Saudi government buys the UEFA Champions League and creates a World Champions League. 2. A health crisis arises when people taking anti-obesity drugs stop dieting and exercising because they trust the drugs to work. 3. The US government, desperate to create demand for Treasuries, makes income from government bonds tax-free. 4. Generative AI enables creation of a deepfake that is sufficiently serious that it triggers government crackdowns on the use of AI. 5. Countries with large trade deficits unite to negotiate more favourable terms for trade, resulting in painful adjustments for trade surplus countries. 6. Robert Kennedy Jr wins the US presidential election. 7. Japan introduces policies that boost domestic demand and cause 7% GDP growth. This forces the Bank of Japan to abandon yield curve control. 8. The EU implements a wealth tax of 2%, resulting in a fall in luxury goods stocks.
  12. Smaller is cheaper. The tiny companies are usually cheaper because of the increased risk, lower diversification and higher cost of capital. So it is not surprising that the three at the top are the biggest companies in the space.
  13. Gold is now getting close to the upper Bollinger band and RSI is close to overbought.
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