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Bumble

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  1. @Oystonout I'm not a financial advisor, so treat everything I say as just a suggestion for your consideration. Investable wealth can be divided across many different asset classes: bonds, stocks, cash, precious metals, real estate, collectables. The best percentage to allocate to each class depends on all kinds of things about you: your age, your employment status, your current and prospective income, your outgoings, your risk tolerance, your financial objectives, etc. There is no one best answer. Traditionally, financial advisors used to recommend a 5% to 10% allocation to gold and/or gold stocks, though these days most do not. This may be because advisors cannot earn a commission by advising their clients to buy gold, or it may be just that they consider gold to be too volatile. Your assessment of the likely future developments in the economy are ones I agree with. Financial commentators who agree with this pessimistic assessment (such as Marc Faber, James Rickards, Peter Schiff, Bill Fleckenstein, John Rubino, and others) typically claim that having at least 10% of your wealth in physical precious metals is a good idea. Marc Faber recommends 25%. What works for you will depend on how much you have and what you can afford to put at risk. I suggest thinking of physical gold and silver as an insurance policy rather as an investment. It is there to hold its value over the long term and protect your savings from inflation, defaults, and crashes. If you want to speculate on the price of gold, gold mining stocks are an attractive option, but they are much riskier, and will likely crash if there is a general stock market crash. As of right now (March 2017) although gold is close to £1000 per ozt, it has been higher, e.g. in 2016 and in 2011-12. There is certainly no reason why it could not go back above previous highs. Silver is currently lagging behind gold and is comparatively cheap at £14. Silver is more volatile than gold, but you could probably do a lot worse than buy some silver coins at current prices. If you are in the UK, buying from Silver-To-Go is a tax-efficient option, and if you buy British coins, such as the Britannia, they are exempt from capital gains tax. If you want to buy gold coins, I suggest sovereigns. They are smaller and more convenient than the big 1 ozt coins, and are recognisable worldwide. Other ways of buying gold are described in this article: http://thesilverforum.com/articles/articles/how-to-invest-in-gold-r4/
  2. I guess a lot of us are pretty happy after the price action yesterday - especially anyone owning the gold and silver miners.
  3. I think it is for inviduals, not businesses, to encourage people to make some money by selling goods and services online. I suspect that currently if you sell coins on eBay you will have HMRC pursuing you for being a trader and wanting to tax your profits. This gives you an opportunity to earn a little extra money.
  4. The upcoming new tax year in the UK will bring in a new £1,000 allowance for money earned from the sharing economy. This covers "selling goods", so we should now be able to make up to a £1,000 profit from selling coins in any year before any tax is payable. The ISA allowance is also rising to £20,000.
  5. Recent tips that I've seen include Santacruz Silver (CVE:SCZ), Coral Gold (CVE:CLH), Pershing Gold (NASDAQ:PGLC) and Fortuna Silver (TSE:FVI). The gold and silver miners are lagging way behind the price of gold and silver at the moment. The HUI to gold ratio is low even by the standards of recent years. Today Centamin (LSE:CEY) dropped 5% -- checked to see why and they have paid a dividend of 8%. Pretty good going for a miner.
  6. Andrew McGuire on KingWorldNews. He reckons the gold and silver manipulation will be coming to an end soon, because the physical metals are now held by strong hands who won't sell at current prices. http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-broadcast-interview-available-now-2-25-17/
  7. Greg Hunter posted a YT video interviewing David Stockman >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xgNncFHAng< It's 26 minutes long, but the main point of interest is that Stockman reckons that Congress will not approve a budget ceiling on March 17. If the Treasury runs out of money, the president has the authority to allocate funds directly, i.e. he decides what gets funded and what doesn't, and he can close down any part of the federal government to meet the income constraints. Stockman used to be the budget controller under Ronald Reagan, so he knows how Washington works. This sounds like a scenario that could trip a stock market fall.
  8. Corrections of 20% are a normal feature of stock market activity and are part of the 'creative destruction' process by which weaker companies are shaken out. We haven't had a substantial fall since 2008 so arguably we are overdue, but a fall doesn't necessarily mean a disaster. By some measures, such as CAPE, stock markets are expensive on average. On the other hand you can buy companies like Shell and BP and get a 6% dividend yield; these are only overvalued if you are sure they cannot maintain this dividend. There is substantial disagreement in the media about the strength of the economies of the developed countries. Some commentators are upbeat and maintain that we are slowly recovering; others are downbeat and hold that we are heading into an ongoing slump. President Obama's "the American economy has never been stronger" is of course ridiculous hyperbole. Stock market participants are sensitive to expectations of interest rate moves. Given the huge amount of debt, there is little room for rates to rise. Maybe we will see 0.5% this year, maybe 1% over the next 2 to 3 years, but we cannot get rates back to historical 'normal' levels of 5-6% unless a lot of the debt is defaulted on. If real rates stay low, this is good for stocks, real estate and precious metals. If debt is defaulted on, nobody is going to want to be left holding bonds. If there is a rush of people taking money out of the stock market, other investment sectors are almost certain to rise. Usually when investors go 'risk off' they move into bonds, real estate and precious metals. It is not safe to hold lots of cash, given how unstable the banks are. Bonds are already expensive and cannot go much higher without yields going to zero. Real estate is a mixed bag: there are probably some places to find bargains, but if you are relying on rental income, a slump will bring increased delinquencies and owners of real estate will be a prime target for wealth taxes. There are plenty of unknowns. We don't yet know whether President Trump will get budgetary approval for a large programme of infrastructure expenditure. We don't know whether insolvent banks in the eurozone will fail. We don't know whether Greece, Italy or France will want to leave the euro and trigger a partial debt default. The good news is that precious metals are looking bullish on almost any plausible scenario. Gold can only go down if (a) There is a strong economic recovery. Fairly unlikely. (b) Real interest rates rise. Unlikely, unless (a) happens as well. (c) Some countries that are major holders of gold ban its ownership. Possible. (d) Someone works out how to mine gold from asteroids, or by electrolysing sea water. Very unlikely. (e) All political uncertainty and wars come to an end. Extremely unlikely.
  9. A short video from Gwen Preston, aka The Resource Maven, on why the prospects for gold and gold miners are positive at the moment.
  10. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38848211
  11. The power of the tipsters... Last Friday (Jan 27) Money Week tipped Condor Gold and over the next two trading days (Jan 30, 31) it rose 20%. On Thursday Feb 1, Jay Taylor tipped Golden Predator Mining in a YouTube video and the very next day it goes up 15%. I like the setup for the gold miners right now. I'm hoping for another strong run like 2016. Silver miners perhaps even more so.
  12. Nobody has mentioned the ping test yet. Balance the coin on the tip of your finger and tap it gently with a key or another coin. It should give a nice clear ring. Fakes don't sound the same. If in doubt, try a smartphone app like Bullion Test - it will compare the ring frequencies with the ones it expects and tell you whether it is fake.
  13. There is no simple relation between the rarity of a commodity and its price. This is why it is nonsense when you hear people say that the gold/silver price ratio should be 9 because that is the ratio of production. Price is set at the margin where supply intersects with demand. Mineral water is abundant but expensive, because people are willing to pay for it; panda dung is rare but very cheap, because nobody wants it. More generally, the price of two commodities can only be expected to move in a definite ratio if they share the same marginal pattern of supply and demand. Gold and platinum are produced in similar ways, by mining, but mining companies cannot simply choose to switch over from producing one to the other because of a change in demand. Gold and platinum are also consumed in different ways: platinum is mostly an industrial metal, while gold is mostly in demand for jewelry and bullion.
  14. Not too shabby, but if you are a resource investor, compare it with what you could have achieved elsewhere in the last month: Gold miners (SGDM) up 6% Gold juniors (SGDJ) up 13% Uranium stocks (URA) up 36% Rare earths (REMX) up 14%
  15. According to this Bloomberg report, it applies to silver as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-05/gold-standard-approved-for-islamic-finance-opening-new-market-iwbytkoj Bear in mind that muslims have always been able to buy gold jewelry and coins, so the new standard may not be as big a deal as some commentators suggest.