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Everything posted by C12

  1. Not sure if anyone has been following the Tether story, but it looks like we're going to see a severe crisis event across the entire crypto markets. The market is being propped up and manipulated by fantasy US Dollar Tether tokens which will soon be exposed as unbacked and worthless. When this happens there will be a wholesale stampede for the exits. No doubt exchanges will be shut down and confidence will be shattered. If you've got any significant crypto exposure you definitely need to keep a close eye on this one. https://www.reddit.com/r/Tether/ http://jamescrypto.com/the-difference-between-inflow-and-market-cap-and-how-it-relates-to-tethers/
  2. coming dip

    I'm very excited by the idea of of a fully backed, vaulted and audited gold cryptocurrency and it's potential to be the ultimate currency. There are a few offerings that have popped out but nothing that really stands out. Onegram looks interesting but I'm not sure I'd entirely trust it, and there lies the biggest problem. I'd like to see something like Bullionvault or Goldmoney (audited vaults in secure locations) without the sign up hassle or storage fees but with the speed, transaction costs and liquidity of a cryptocurrency. Something like this could potentially bring in a stealth global gold standard.
  3. coming dip

    No reason to be selling PM's here, especially silver. What's the worst thing silver can do from here? possibly capitulate at $6 and go sideways for more years? We've already retraced a huge amount of the blow off in 2011. The long term upside however is ridiculous, plus you're hedged against inflation and various other risks. It might need a whole load of patience but nobody knows when the next bull move will kick off.
  4. coming dip

    The worst case scenario is that we go into a prolonged decade long deflation where the governments and central banks are completely helpless to do anything about it. There's no investment that can save anyone from this and it's a scary thought. PM's a great hedge against various things but nowhere near ideal in this scenario. I think you do need PM's to hedge against the unknown outcome, but also a decent amount of cash in the safest possible place.
  5. coming dip

    If you google '30 year commodity cycle' and look at the 200 year history. It's like clockwork. The next commodity cycle seems to be in the mid to late 2030's.
  6. coming dip

    I would probably agree. Silver and gold will get hit hard when the crash comes and it might be much more prolonged than 2008 dip. Technically gold looks pretty favourable. Although if you zoom out to a 30+ year chart it might suggest we've not seen the end of the bear market. Silver is teetering on the edge of a 15 year uptrend line going back to 2003. A failure here could open the doors to prices not seen since the 90's and we may need to hold out until the next commodity cycle picks up. The annoying thing about silver is that it never seems to hold value at a higher baseline level. After the quick blow offs, it just gravitates towards zero and flatlines.
  7. coming dip

    I'm also starting to see the potential for a dip and prolonged sideways action. The failure of silver to do anything during the recent bear market in USD is a concern. It's probably the most unloved physical asset on the planet. I also see the gold silver ratio heading up to unseen levels, possibly over 100 or even 120. I'm not concerned about my stash at all and will just keep stacking which is a good thing as it was always more of a retirement investment. Although, if you've got over 1,000 coins it does become a bit of arse to store and look after.
  8. Deflation will be a strong sign for the dollar (at least initially). Money will panic out of all assets and back into cash, much like 2008. The charts suggest we're not there yet. I think the central banks will have a much more difficult time printing their way out next time.. It will require some serious helicopters.
  9. I'm looking at the EURUSD levels at around 1.26 where there is significant multi year downtrend resistance (and a weekly level of supply). If it takes out 1.26 decisively then we could see 1.37.
  10. Ripple We're starting to see a washout in cryptos. Ripple has a particularly clean buy level at approx $0.42 which I'm planning to load up on if we reach this area. This is a centralised bank coin so maybe not the pick of the bunch in the very long term. However, I see this area as a very low risk, high reward entry if get down there. I would expect some longer term basing before taking out the spike highs. These markets are extremely volatile and it's far better to accumulate at value rather than chase price if you're an investor. This coin has a $48 Billion dollar market cap so you can be sure there's some serious pain out there. I've got a whole list of buy zones on a pile of cryptos but this chart stands out.
  11. Thought I'd start up a thread to share some technical analysis on gold, silver, cryptos and anything else anyone is interested in. It might be useful for those looking to time their purchases but not necessarily as investment advice. I've been trading for around 6 years and was a full-time trader back in 2013 (as a intraday low timeframe scalper). I now trade the forex majors in my spare time on higher time frames. I look at the markets in a very similar way to Richard Rock. I don't use indicators or oscillators like RSI or stochastics since these lag behind price. I've been running an active thread for the last 5 years on a forex trading forum over at - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=390673 Anyway, let's start with Gold. Since it's new year I'll start with higher time-frame analysis. The monthly looks particularly bullish. We've broken up out of a 6.5 year downtrend, have successfully retested the 50% retracement of the bull move from 1999 to 2011 and the chart is suggesting a move higher. I do see a potential on the monthly for another retest of the breakout line. There is a fresh demand zone below which should mean price is well supported, even if it drops back below the breakout line. Looking at the weekly, the bullish picture is even clearer. You can see all the supply levels above have been tested and the levels (targets) are marked off above. This chart suggests we may be off to the races in terms of a significant up-move.
  12. Is this milking?

    I just stick with the cheapest 25 rolls of Britannias I can find. I usually just buy them in bulk from coininvest.com VAT free. The main thing for Britannias is that they're recognisable, divisible, not subject to CGT and will be very easy to offload when the time comes to sell. They fit all my criteria apart from not being particularly exciting. VAT on these coins (in the UK) is extremely sketchy in my view considering they have a face value.
  13. Is this milking?

    I didn't a pay a premium originally. Think it was about £14 when I bought it. I might stick it on ebay for a laugh and see what it goes for. Would bet it will still go for £25.
  14. Is this milking?

    Turns out this is a limited mintage coin with a bit of a premium as well. The rear side is immaculate. The sides are black... I probably should take better care of my stash.
  15. Is this milking?

    How about this. Bought this 2008 Britannia 10 years ago and chucked it in a box. Didn't realise the front side had no plastic protection. Just dug it out and looks about 200 years old.
  16. Is this milking?

    It doesn't matter if you're just investing in silver. When people rush into metals, even the worst condition coins will fly. It's only an issue if you're a bit OCD about keeping things in pristine condition. My stack of silver is now tarnished and beaten up over the years but never bothered me at all. The silver / gold ratio still massively favours silver in the long term. Keep on stacking.
  17. They better not turn gold into sterling into bitcoin and then back to sterling then.
  18. Here's an interesting article on crypto currencies that's worth reading in full. Karl Denninger argues that they are a modern day Ponzi scheme (by design) which will most likely be made illegal at some point for a variety of reasons. Digital 'Currencies' Are ALL A Scam 2017-06-17 08:35 by Karl Denninger http://market-ticker.org/ https://cryptorum.com/threads/karl-d...ll-a-scam.217/ "ALL such "digital currencies" are by design and intent a means to separate you from wealth and give it to whoever founded said "currency." They are for this reason all effectively a pyramid scheme. This will inevitably lead to the seizure and closing of all such systems -- if and when governments figure it out. The reason is simple: With a finite and ever-more-difficult means of mining each successive coin the effect on value for participants is exactly the same as it is in any pyramid scheme. Since nothing of physical existence is created or dug out of the ground there is no utility value and thus no floor price, unlike gold or silver (both of which have industrial value due to the metallurgical properties.) The person who "invents" such a system gets to "mine" many coins at very low cost (in electricity or whatever.) He then watches the "value" of said coins escalate as each one becomes harder to "mine" and as hype takes over, and can convert that "wealth" into some other form, whether it be a fiat currency, real property or otherwise. The founder always makes a grossly outsized "profit" in this fashion with the available profit dropping exponentially and ratably in every single case simply based on the number of participants. At the beginning recruiting others who also make money is easy because mining the coins is easy. However, over time recruiting others becomes harder and harder. This is exactly identical to what happens in a traditional pyramid scheme -- the founder gets a cut off all the sales from everyone under him. The next layer who all find the field "unmowed" with lots of customers make a lot of money too, but always less than the first group and so on. But since the number of customers is finite, just as is the number of coins, with each successive layer of participants it gets harder and harder to find others to transact in sufficient volume to turn a profit because the acquisition of each new (coin or customer) becomes exponentially more-difficult. It is thus impossible on a mathematical basis for any such design to be self-sustaining since it relies on an exponentially more difficult act in a finite world. ALL such systems are inherently ponzi schemes whether we are talking about digital currencies or the alleged sale of products."
  19. I guess that depends if the new 'owner' manages to sell the crypto and transfer the funds into their bank account. I'm not sure the point of the question?
  20. I agree with you that cryptos offer nothing. However, I think you're underestimating the madness of crowds, the fear of missing out and the greed of wanting more. Companies can go bust, commodities can crash and bonds can be defaulted upon. When the masses wake up and take notice of these insane (and consistent) gains in cryptos, big money will pile in. I think a $10 trillion crypto market cap in the next few years is probably conservative. I see this as the early stages of the biggest speculative mania of all time that will eventually dwarf every single bubble on record. It will also lead to the biggest collapse of all time.
  21. Yep, no plans for keeping anything on an unregulated exchange. My only concern with crypto is that I feel many coins will eventually evaporate as money gravitates into the latest and greatest coin. The market cap may hit $10 trillion, but there will probably be over 100,000 competing cryptos at this time and you'll eventually need to be quite nimble in transferring in and out of them.
  22. I was just about to load up £100 of each of the top 15 market cap coins but couldn't register. I found the whole thing to be a bit of a pain in the arse to be honest so will figure it all out over the next week. Coinbase doesn't accept sterling directly so you need to convert it via a currency exchange first to avoid getting stung on the rate and fees. The main issue is storing these coins off the exchange. Half of these coins don't even have a viable wallet to stick them on... My plan is also to be out of these coins well before the top of the bubble and transfer any gains straight into physical gold.
  23. This may sound ridiculous but I see the potential for crypto to bring down the entire financial system over the next few years. I can imagine a future where money evaporates out of stocks, commodities, bonds, bank accounts and gets sucked into an unregulated crypto pyramid system of exponential returns. The current crypto market cap is almost $1trillion and growing rapidly. It may be well over $10trillion in a couple of years. Right now the exchanges can't keep up with the scramble to buy these Altcoins. Binance has just shut it's doors on new registrations so I'd expect we'll see a fresh wave of unregulated exchanges opening over the next year. I'm not even sure how anyone can prepare for it. Even if you buy these coins now, there's no guarantee you'll eventually be able to do anything with them. Eventually people wont be able to cash out since there may not be any bank to transfer back to. How about a situation of complete blackouts as energy suppliers and ISP's are unable to maintain their networks. How will crypto coins help in this environment? This sounds like a doomsday scenario but something to think about.
  24. stacking goals 2018

    It's a great time to be a silver stacker as we're in the ballpark range of prices that will never be seen again. Not only that, we have the luxury to cherry pick anything we want which wont be the case down the line. the shelves will be empty. Sure, it's entirely possible we get another drop to $10 or even $8 dollars at worst, but the risk to reward ratio over the longer term is insane.
  25. Bitcoin My broker doesn't provide as much history so will look at trading view. The weekly chart shows a seriously stretched market with a whopping bearish engulfing candle. This for me is a clear sign to avoid buying at these price levels. You can see the technical uptrend lines. The weekly untested support line is around $5,000 which would certainly stir my interest as a value investor to consider filling my empty crypto wallet. The daily shows the uptrend lines more clearly and there is also a demand level at around $8400. Just looking at this chart I can see this ranging and bottoming out for a while (possibly the whole of 2018 and even 2019). I may be wrong and we're "off to the moon" from here but I can only say what I see on this chart. Reminds me a bit like silver in April/May 2011. I would imagine there is much better value and less downside risk with alternative cryptos right now. Currently short on one of my demo spread bet accounts with half a position off on the initial drop.