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PansPurse

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Everything posted by PansPurse

  1. Today I Received

    @richatthecroft oh don't get me wrong, it looks fantastic, I just wish I was in a position to drop a grand on a gold coin
  2. Today I Received

    It's a moral duty to defy unjust laws:
  3. Today I Received

    Couldn't they use Queenie's face for that? Is that a treasonous thought?
  4. Today I Received

    I think the "one ounce fine gold" and "Britannia" just plonked beside the trident is a bit lazy, but otherwise it looks great.
  5. First Time Silver Melting Advice

    Pretty I like the texture on the lumpier one
  6. So the question is still going around in circles, is Bitcoin a bubble? What about other cryptocurrencies? I thought I’d take a little time to get my thoughts down in some kind of coherent manner. Caveat, this is based on my own reading and understanding which, although better than some, is obviously much less than others. I want to start by looking at a couple of older bubbles, the dot com and the housing market. In both those cases, the crash, the bursting of the bubble occurred because the value people were prepared to pay for something was no longer a fair reflection of the thing itself. It turns out that having a website without a reasonable business model isn;t enough to make a business. Investing tends top come down to two approaches, the first is doing what everyone else is doing. Much as stock brokers etc would hate to admit it, this is where an awful too of market movements come from. The alternative to this herd mentality is to make investments based upon a sound understanding of a business or stock’s fundamentals. That’s what everyone likes to think that they’re doing and (IMHO) when done properly will tend to lead to relatively stable lower-risk bets which deliver more modest returns than higher stakes gambles (did I mention that I have absolutely no qualification in this field? I have no qualification in this field and am happy to be educated/corrected). This is all basically pre-amble to my main point, what are the fundamentals that underpin precise metals and what are the fundamentals of bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies? For precious metals, like most commodities, there’s a balance of supply and demand. Supply comes rom mining and demand comes from people who want the thing (hey guys!). Mining only happens because the cost of extracting and purifying PMs is less than their market value. There are economic prices below which it’s just not practical to mine PMs and this gives us essentially a market floor. Why? Because if the price drops below that, mines close, the supply reaches and liquidity in the PMs market also dries up, pushing the price of whatever is available higher, higher price then suddenly makes mining economical again. That’s the fundamentals for PMs (so far as I understand them) so what about Bitcoin? In order to meaningfully trade bitcoin you need the support of the bitcoin network. That is, if all the computers running bitcoin were to suddenly switch off, bitcoin would be basically worthless. There’s no such risk with PMs because they represent extraction work that’s already been carried out, rather than relying on a network run by other people continuing to exist in years to come. Is this reckless assumption to be making? Well, bitcoin relies on the network continuing to function. But that’s ok because bitcoin’s design includes an incentive for people to continue operating the network; the minting of further bitcoins. Mining bitcoins takes energy and the basic fundamental here is that the value gained by mining a coin should be more than the value lost in mining it, i.e. the computer hardware, internet bandwidth and, most importantly, the energy used in the mining. Its important to remember that the mathematical problem that has to be solved as the "proof of work" for mining is adjustable to match the computing power available on the bitcoin network. So if the value of mined coins goes down, miners will likely reduce the amount of energy they use by shutting down older and less efficient equipment, and the difficulty of the required computation will decrease to match and keep the block rate of about once per ten minutes. The number of bitcoins issued per block is also set to keep decreasing so will go from 12.5 currently to 6.25 in a couple of years’ time, but that should;t have too big an impact not he price by and of itself. What this difficulty scalability means is that the network can function on relatively little computing power (like it did back in the early days) and that, if the price of bitcoin remains fairly level, we should expect to see step-changes of the energy consumed in mining bitcoin every few years as the reward decreases. So, overall I don’t think the bitcoin network is going to crumble into dust. Even a catastrophic collapse in the price would just mean that it’d revert to a quirky thing being run by enthusiasts on their home computers. In that regard the market floor for bitcoin is low, incredibly low. So based on this line of thinking, bitcoin and PMs are surprisingly similar, but bitcoin has a lot further to fall int he event of a massive collapse. What I’ve not included here is things like gold/silver mining futures, or other forms of paper PMs. Nor have I really discussed other forms of cryptocurrency that use different operating principles (different forms of proof of work, proof of stake etc) which will probably have very different underlying mathematics. And yes, all of this is moot in case of something like a giant solar flare that cooks all our electronics but, frankly, if that happens you won;t be able to post here to say I told you so...
  7. I blame John McAfee https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/motherboard.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/9knnpz/john-mcafee-twitter-coin-of-the-day-cryptocurrency-markets
  8. US Gov. Shutdown Affect

    Ummmm, have you not been watching the headlines?
  9. 18ct gold chain

    Only Fools and Horses
  10. 250g Silver Forum Bars (2018) - Pre-orders open!

    Alas I fear is going to be too much for my budget... Are there any of the 1oz bars left?
  11. Sand casting silver

    I love this idea. I've been contemplating a similar approach but with modelling clay rather than sand.
  12. **January 2018** Group order from European Mint!

    2017 are the cheapest on the site so I recommend those (I'll be ordering at least one oriental bordered one too)
  13. **January 2018** Group order from European Mint!

    Ok going to send in my shopping list shortly... Quick reminder that if folks want to order 2017 Britannias, if we all order today we can hopefully combine to get the discounted rate
  14. When the Royal Mint Launch New Bullion Range again ?

    I think OP might have been wondering whether RM are working on any new ranges? IMHO the landmarks series is a bit dull, makes pandas look dynamic and exciting
  15. coming dip

    Thanks, I appreciate it. Might stick it out until Saturday, see if it goes any lower
  16. coming dip

    I'm not sure these comparisons are entirely fair, I mean there's been nearly two decades of inflation since the nineties, so the underlying cost of mining/purifying will have risen too
  17. coming dip

    When's the group order deadline again @BackyardBullion
  18. Edward VIII

    Given the extreme rareity of Edward eighth coins this smells pretty suspicious: https://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/0/0?mpre=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.co.uk%2Fulk%2Fitm%2F152858265161
  19. 1) The budgeting advice is important. I am now reeling back/working on this. 2) The Royal Mint's Signature gold option offers pretty competetive rates and is a good last-in/first-out stash of value. 3) Canadian’s have a horrible portrait of the Queen… possibly part of a larger disaffection with having her as head of state? 4) Some people are crazy. 5) Most people are not (and in fact pretty lovely) 6) If you ever want to feel poor and humble, convert savings into gold. 7) Relatively stable PM prices can look like terrifying roller-coasters if you follow them daily/weekly. 8) I am definitely not a numismatically minded person (little scratches and links don’t seem to bother me in the slightest) 9) I will never understand the popularity of Pandas (both the coin and the animal)
  20. Today I Received

    More silver crowns: Lovely seeing the change in design, really bringing out Pistrucci's design
  21. Difficult call, the only constant through this has been volatility, I guess this is why Bitcoin fans say Hodl (hold on for dear life)
  22. Storing Collectable Coins

    Generally one of the attractive properties of gold and part of its popularity throughout history is that it is pretty much inert. Unlike silver it takes a lot to degrade gold
  23. Slightly confused

    Can't comment on detail but I'd advise being sceptical. Forgeries are out there, as are misleading, inaccurate or outright false descriptions. High value coins, particularly anything gold, makes them a profitable subject for forgeries