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Martlet

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Everything posted by Martlet

  1. Carillion Bust

    Too much debt, write down value of contracts last year, generally seen to be underbidding to win contracts and its all caught up with them.
  2. Will gold hit $1,500 this year?

    Not on its own, it will need a major global incident to drive it there.
  3. The trouble is that each stage of production requires manual real world certification. All the blockchain can do is record what was input, if you dont trust the input, then nothing can change; if you trust the input the blockchain isn't necessary and you can use existing simpler database systems. There is a requirement for pharmaceuticals to implement this in the EU.
  4. It's about right on money. It is highly speculative. I read Bitcointalk and most the people dont have a clue what they are really "investing" in, they are just looking for something that will go x10, x100.
  5. What will happen to gold if we go digital

    It will be the same as having gold in any existing fully allocated vault, I dont see how it will differ. They give a digital certificate too, an email, contract document too And I would be concerned how such a coin would be treated by the cryptocurrency market. So many in cryptoland dont have a clue about what they are investing in, if its high profile and sold as safe (because backed by gold) I can see the speculators ramping up the price of the coin above its asset value. Perhaps the objective of this anticipated cryptocurrency, with large amounts of gold behind it, is simply to open accessibility to gold investment.
  6. The advances of AI are overstated. As someone who studied this subject in the 90's the state of the art has barely moved, what is called AI is really machine learning. Give a system so many examples, so much input that it processes so fast it can arrive at a decision appearing to be "intelligent". There are great advances in various fields to utilise this, but not to the degree some like to forecast. The jobs taken up by machines will free human labour for other more productive purposes. We've had technological revolution before and each time the population find new work in new areas. The system detecting cancer will just mean more patients can be diagnosed earlier, mass screening becomes possible, still need doctors to actually carry out personal consultation, treatment, and nurses to provide care. On the other hand robotics have been replacing manufacturing for decades, and no one paid much attention to that change. Main thing for PM is the increase use of silver in technology will support or raise price. Gold maybe not so much as its too expensive to use in quantity and so valuable that recycling is a commercial operation. Chap i know works in recycling plant, they spend hundreds of thousands on machines and processing line to reclaim materials from electronics).
  7. £250 a month...

    Very good point. On a basic level always keep enough cash in hand to pay for day to day expenses. I've twice experienced localised but significant network outages ATMs and shop terminals were down, so only those with cash could get their lunch. Could try to offer a tradesman a half sovereign for emergencies?
  8. Forgot about this happening, thought i might be reversed. Its a disappointing change and done for the wrong reasons. We all pay processing fees and dont see them normally, the only reason this comes in due to a few being excessive, or adding the charge to low headline prices when other options weren't available. Previously with some places i could chose to pay by card or cash/transfer and see a saving or pay for convenience. Now i wont be able to chose and prices rise 3.5% instead. Due to the vast majority of sales absorbing card fees into prices it wont have a major impact, but its annoying all the same. They could instead have legislated for the fee to be limited to what was charged by the processor, or companies to publish the full cost where its only option (thinking air fare in particular here, they should price in main costs then offer discounts for no luggage etc.)
  9. £250 a month...

    6 mth wages seems to much, and quite unrealistic for many. I always gone with a guide of 3 mth wages, plus cost of a boiler as a guide (if your on low salary, might be the same as 6mths...), and that "boiler" money is there to be spent on things needing fix (car, breakages etc). This is what lead me to silver in the first place, something to do with "excess" saving that was a bit more interesting than chasing % rates. Its nice to earn 5% on saving over the long term but dull. So assuming some savings already on hand, the answer is metals. And how about alternating? one month a sov, next a bundle of silver?
  10. 2017 Isle of Man Noble Reverse Proof

    I like that. Apmex means prohibitively expensive though.
  11. Index funds are great over long term. What you have to bear in mind s the Index components changes over the year, with poorly performing companies dropped and replaced by well performing companies. Only question is whether its all a bit frothy at the moment and due a correction, i've held off further investment due to this, though maybe missing some years of gain.
  12. Milk spot on my Britannia

    Has it been determined definitively what the cause is? As it seems to be more prone on some, from endemic to rare from different mints, it must be part common, part mint specific process. As i recall there is no problem with older coins .925 silver, so is the simple solution to revert from .999 silver to something slight less pure but free from this affliction? At least for proofs where the value is in the finish rather than the metal content.
  13. That's an odd view of crypto. The scaling issues are from poor design, and i'm not sure of real security issues (it is underpinned by encryption after all). Moreover, the banks already have electronic payment systems in place and people are going cashless via cards, contactless payments, paypal, Swift/SEPA etc. They don't need crypto currencies, it does solve any problems they have (except Satoshis original concept to bypass banking, i think we're past that now) and its a lot less usable than the systems in place. Also, bitcoin started with demonisation, its put that behind it now. The evidence of behaviour of governments is they are more interested in regulation that banning crypto, i dont believe they or the banks see it is a threat, and the banks see blockchain concept as an opportunity to tidy up their own internal transactions.
  14. First Time Silver Melting Advice

    ooo... I'd written off the idea of a little melting and moulding as the furnaces are relatively expensive for a whimsical hobby, never occurred you can do it with butane torch and this MAPP torch is interesting I recall a video with some chap making a furnace from a bucket filled with plaster, a hole, hairdryer and common BBQ bricks. melts alu cans and copper, that would be enough for silver?
  15. Today I Received

    Thats what im after, silvergoldbull didnt have this last time I looked. How did the LTC tx go?
  16. Dunno, rooting through bags of coins day after day, then dealing with ebay every day, sounds like work to me.
  17. Niue silver 1oz Roaring Lion

    Pacific NE of New Zealand. Major exports are tourism and coins... (jk) I opened this hoping for a nice new coin, but alas its a bit overstyled for my taste.
  18. Its not unreasonable. The problem seems to be the analysis, starting from a conclusion its imminent and looking for evidence, when you look at the evidence provided ($:gold price vs inflation) its not actually the situation portrayed. If we accept the $ is on a slow burn path to a fall, the argument is about how far along the path it is and i'd say its probably a lot further off. It might be more comparable to sterling, which has slowly declined rather than an abrupt fall. And it is different this time. Interesting point in there was mention of the chartalism, the name given to the form of monetary control our OP is talking about, with the state literally printing money to pay for anything. The difference this time is market forces, in from of interest rates, determine what the government can spend and banks lending is similarly constrained by their relative balance sheets and demand for investment. You cant loan money if no one wants it. Who knows how long the US fiscal policy can continue, but there's a lot more flexibility now.
  19. First of all, it was $ inflation number. To the question, why does dollar fall x and inflation not go up by x, the answer is not everything is paid for in $. If you import a good paid for in dollars, then apply costs for transport, marketing, retail margin, that 10% £:$ drop is diluted. Some distrust the government inflation as manipulated, the thing is it is manipulated but in a transparent way - changes are recorded and you can carry out the measurements (checking prices regular on basket of goods) yourself. Its one of the more empirical economic states, unlike say growth, productivity or GDP that rely on a lot of estimates and later revision.
  20. Such analysis are usually fatalistic notion the dollar will, must collapse. And the reason, because price of gold is out of step so this must readjust. This article makes this argument clear with the simple gold price comparison, post war dollar was $35, now its £1300, " giving a loss of the dollar’s purchasing power, measured in the money of the market" as the article states. But $ inflation since 1945 is not anywhere near that. Quick lookup shows its cumulatively ~1260%, so the gold price should be about $440 on that basis. Its probably true that US has exported inflation across the globe for decades, but one cant make claims base on market prices then ignore the recorded change in market prices of goods and services (inflation).
  21. It was clear when this story emerged it was the provider, not Bitcoin, that was the target. I don't believe Visa (or Mastercard) see Bitcoin as a threat. They make money from payment processing, £, $, BTC makes little difference to them, they still take their fees. I'm increasingly of the opinion that banks and authorities, in the West at least, do not see cryptocurrency as the threat that people in the bubble want them to be. We can deposit with ease, withdraw (though with problems in UK for some reason) and tax is covered in existing rules (though with questions from lack of test cases). Primary business and source of revenue for banks comes from loans, overdrafts and mortgages, not transfer fees (which are 0 in UK and EU anyway), so why would they see crypto as any threat?
  22. 1 kilo in 1oz coins or a 1 kilo coin?

    Wont be exactly indentical, but the space taken up is going to be roughly same volume.
  23. This is unlikely to fanciful. Companies offer products and services, commodities have uses, bonds offer secured rate of return. What do cryptocoins offer? Or put another way, people have different appetite for risk, if everyone wanted to be in the high performing, high return end of the economy, bonds wouldn't exist. Most the coins being released are little more than fund raising for business plans, they dont need to release a crypto token but couldn't raise a few million other ways. The market will correct eventually, they always do, the higher the rise the more those getting in late will lose and the worse the fall out.
  24. **January 2018** Group order from European Mint!

    Do you know if/when they'll be updating their stock? Their selection is light in some areas and there's a lack of 2018 editions on the site currently.
  25. The increase supply has been of what the economists call M4 or broad money. The effect on the economy is less than actually printing physical notes or lower types of money, so you need more of it to have an impact, and its been done to increase liquidity. The economist work on an equation V=PQ/M, where V is the velocity of money (how much is moves around the economy), PQ is the GDP and M is the money supply. If V reduces M or PQ must increase to balance, and in absence of short/medium term increase of PDQ (cant make the economy grow very quickly) policy favours increasing M. To add, advantage of expanding M4 in the form of bond purchases, is thats its more controllable, the money can be removed from the supply more easily, you re-sell the bonds to soak up excess liquidity. Graph on this page shows that the increase in money supply has been low, despite the tens of billions pumped in through QE. Had there been no QE there would have been no increase and very severe deflation/recession. (Dont have a degree in economics either, but been following it for so long this stuff just sinks in eventually)